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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 19853 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #45 on: September 19, 2017, 04:18:48 AM »
Wild swings can be a good thing in Tennessee. Weak SE ridge coupled with a weak Nina could spell overrunning event opportunities. Things could be looking a lot worse at this point, a long ways to go but I like the possibilities so far for some chances at winter weather at least. ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::
very true... wild swings can be a very good thing... ::twister::  what a big change in long range enso forecasting... just think.... not to long ago... we were looking at a weak nino this winter... not there is slightly better than a 50 50 chance were looking at a moderate  LA NINA... ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #46 on: September 19, 2017, 06:33:09 AM »
very true... wild swings can be a very good thing... ::twister::  what a big change in long range enso forecasting... just think.... not to long ago... we were looking at a weak nino this winter... not there is slightly better than a 50 50 chance were looking at a moderate  LA NINA... ::coffee::


So far it's developing as an east based La Niņa too- meaning increased chances of negative NAO. We will see how this thing develops.

Post Merge: September 19, 2017, 10:11:55 AM
Sept 17 JAMSTEC Winter Temp and Precip Forecast





If that's what actually occurs, should be a weak La Nina with battle ground for warm/cold with ice and snow in the middle tier.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 10:11:56 AM by Curt, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #47 on: September 19, 2017, 02:10:08 PM »
I'll take anything after last winter. We had a week of frigid weather in early January followed by a torchfest.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #48 on: September 20, 2017, 02:08:29 PM »
I'll take anything after last winter. We had a week of frigid weather in early January followed by a torchfest.

Worth it for the summer we got.  I would make that trade most years.  Haven't been paying to close attention to things here for the 2012-15 winters as I was up north, but am I correct in assuming there have been no blockbusters in my absence? 

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #49 on: September 20, 2017, 02:42:29 PM »
Worth it for the summer we got.  I would make that trade most years.  Haven't been paying to close attention to things here for the 2012-15 winters as I was up north, but am I correct in assuming there have been no blockbusters in my absence?

No "blockbuster winters", per say, but several decent winters thrown in there.  At times eastern TN did well, at other times middle and west TN received some good snowfalls, and the eastern side and the plateau got ice.  The plateau was especially hard hit with an ice storm during one year.   

During the Super Nino, parts of western and middle TN got heavy snow, and our neighbors to the north in Kentucky were crushed with some huge snow totals.  Eastern TN missed out on that one for the most part. 

And others may think that there were some blockbuster winters during that time.  But my measuring stick for a blockbuster is '84-'85, so no--we didn't have a winter like that. 
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 03:19:21 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #50 on: September 20, 2017, 10:17:12 PM »
IMBY we had some big events in that timeframe but no blockbusters over all. There were a couple years that a couple of degrees made the difference in so so and epic.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #51 on: September 21, 2017, 10:09:35 AM »
There were a couple years that a couple of degrees made the difference in so so and epic.
That is pretty much the story every year here in N. MS.  ::bangingheadintowall::
I still remember - I think it was 2011, maybe 2010 - when a storm dumped 6 inches here quickly overnight and then turned to light rain at sun up and then it drizzled and rained all day at 33 degrees.  I was so pissed that day I got in my truck and drove north to find the rain snow line.  I didn't have to go far - just in northern west Memphis,  less than 30 miles.

That is the way winters can go here though! Here's top hopinh 2017-18 is the 'big one'.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #52 on: September 21, 2017, 11:28:16 AM »
That is pretty much the story every year here in N. MS.  ::bangingheadintowall::
I still remember - I think it was 2011, maybe 2010 - when a storm dumped 6 inches here quickly overnight and then turned to light rain at sun up and then it drizzled and rained all day at 33 degrees.  I was so pissed that day I got in my truck and drove north to find the rain snow line.  I didn't have to go far - just in northern west Memphis,  less than 30 miles.

That is the way winters can go here though! Here's top hopinh 2017-18 is the 'big one'.

lol temps in MN even make a difference. The difference there is they don't pout when it's rain.

You missed the "Shelby County Split Storm" of early March 2014. Talk about 2 different worlds- basically Narnia north and normal south.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #53 on: September 21, 2017, 03:48:37 PM »
Anyone from here going to take a stab at a forecast?  Haven't seen anyone mention it.  I have been out of the loop with the various global signals for the past couple months between my work and all the hurricanes to follow so I am not going to bother doing one this year.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #54 on: September 22, 2017, 06:54:37 AM »
Has anyone been counting the number of fogs? I know at least here in middle TN we've had a bunch lately.

Online cgauxknox

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #55 on: September 22, 2017, 07:43:15 AM »
Has anyone been counting the number of fogs? I know at least here in middle TN we've had a bunch lately.
There do seem to be more than usual and some of them have been really heavy in Knoxville.  I was out on Fort Loudon Lake early Sunday and the fog was so bad we could barely move.  Combine virtually no visibility with lots of debris in the water and it was impossible to get anywhere until the weather lifted around 9:30.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #56 on: September 22, 2017, 09:09:35 AM »
There do seem to be more than usual and some of them have been really heavy in Knoxville.  I was out on Fort Loudon Lake early Sunday and the fog was so bad we could barely move.  Combine virtually no visibility with lots of debris in the water and it was impossible to get anywhere until the weather lifted around 9:30.
that's fogs that are in August you count..... grandma always told me that...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Crockett

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #57 on: September 22, 2017, 01:32:20 PM »
that's fogs that are in August you count..... grandma always told me that...

I'm pretty sure that correlating September fogs to winter snows is just as accurate as correlating August fogs to winter snows.  ;D

Online cgauxknox

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #58 on: September 22, 2017, 03:05:33 PM »
I'm pretty sure that correlating September fogs to winter snows is just as accurate as correlating August fogs to winter snows.  ;D
But...woolly worms and acorns....  ::rofl::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #59 on: September 22, 2017, 03:06:53 PM »
I prefer the woolly worm method of winter forecasting.  It's the only way to go!   :)

http://www.woollyworm.com/
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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