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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 19848 times)

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Online Coach B

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2017, 07:41:13 AM »
\
One thing to always remember is that it only takes 1 or 2 events to make a winter. For a good deal of Middle TN and KY the winter of 15-16 was a snowy winter, but it was also a very warm winter overall.  The Winter of 13-14 was a classic cold winter, but the I-40 corridor from Memphis to Jackson to Nashville got shafted when it came to snow.

Good points. Jan 2014 at OHX had seven days with lows in the single digits and  was -5.3 for the month.  Grand total of 0.4" of snow to show for it.  ::bangingheadintowall::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2017, 06:19:30 PM »
Most of our recent colder, snowier winters from 2013 to 2015 seemed to have one common factor--a warm pool of water in the north Pacific off of North America's west coast.  Additionally, most of those winters saw an absence of any prolonged -NAO/AO.  So, the warm water there turned out to be a bigger driver of cold in the East than the more talked about -NAO, as it pumped up a west coast ridge and a trough became locked in the East.  Last winter, that warm pool shrunk considerably--and a large area of cooler water appeared.  The west coast finally lost the ridge (and their drought), and we were mild.  Latest maps for June show mostly "normal" sea surface temperatures there.  I'm certainly no expert, but it might be important to watch what happens there between now and November/December. 


"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2017, 03:21:06 PM »
JB's early prediction - colder than the last 2 winters but not as extreme as 14-15 or 13-14. Cold seems to be centered in the northern plains and looks to make intrusions into our area on several occasions with an early starts and coldest into January. Looks like a blocky pattern overall. November - February in TN- normal temps and above normal precip

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2017, 01:33:40 PM »
JB's early prediction - colder than the last 2 winters but not as extreme as 14-15 or 13-14. Cold seems to be centered in the northern plains and looks to make intrusions into our area on several occasions with an early starts and coldest into January. Looks like a blocky pattern overall. November - February in TN- normal temps and above normal precip

Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2017, 02:09:47 PM »
Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::
which really isnt saying a whole lot.... ;)
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2017, 03:12:46 PM »
Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::

I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niņo to now a potential weak La Niņa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2017, 03:36:07 PM »
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niņo to now a potential weak La Niņa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
yeah... i would be more concerned about ice this winter... be honest
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #22 on: August 20, 2017, 11:57:54 AM »
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niņo to now a potential weak La Niņa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.

Good points.  Anything would be an improvement since our Super Nino of two years ago, and last year's continued torching.  Having a cooler/wetter summer makes me optimistic that this winter will also at least be "normal," which puts a few Arctic outbreaks and snow chances on the table.  Also, you mentioned a "blocky" pattern from time to time, which has been sorely lacking in the last two winters.  All in all, I think we'll at least have more to track this time around. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #23 on: August 20, 2017, 04:37:52 PM »
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niņo to now a potential weak La Niņa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
lot depends how strong the southeast ridge will get... more than not.. develops during any type nina....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2017, 12:15:40 AM »
lot depends how strong the southeast ridge will get... more than not.. develops during any type nina....
The SER is a big deal for Tn. A lot of times it is our friend on the west side but no so much for the rest of the state. The SER has a lot to do with the north of 40 deal. If it's a weak to neutral La Niņa we could very well be in the battle zone.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #25 on: August 23, 2017, 06:52:47 PM »
The SER is a big deal for Tn. A lot of times it is our friend on the west side but no so much for the rest of the state. The SER has a lot to do with the north of 40 deal. If it's a weak to neutral La Niņa we could very well be in the battle zone.

A strong SER is a total buzz kill for anyone east of the Plateau.  A weak ridge can be a friend to all if a southern slider drops in and turns the corner in the right place. I think we had a few back in 09-10.  Of course, we also has some pretty strong episodes of a -NAO/AO back then, as well, if I recall.   

Good grief.  Why does that winter seem much more recent than 7 years ago??  Considering the next eclipse is 7 years away, I guess I better go ahead and book my hotel room.  It's closer than I thought.   
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #26 on: August 25, 2017, 03:07:31 PM »
yeah... i would be more concerned about ice this winter... be honest

I have said this for a few winters here in the Midsouth and it never panned out.  That said, Memphis and the immediate surrounding areas have not had a major freezing rain event in almost 25 years.  You have to go to Jonesboro or Dyersburg for evidence of a recent one.  The events that have happened in Memphis were largely WAA driven and therefore short lived.  A persistent, heavy event is going to happen again at some point. Ice storms are probably the most widespread impactful weather event the area here can have.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2017, 03:10:29 PM by bugalou »

Offline Cody

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #27 on: September 02, 2017, 05:05:09 PM »
Bump


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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #28 on: September 04, 2017, 10:09:02 AM »
Does anyone foresee '17-'18 similar to '13-'14 and '14-'15?

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #29 on: September 04, 2017, 01:19:07 PM »
Does anyone foresee '17-'18 similar to '13-'14 and '14-'15?

With the potential for a weak La-Nina or cool neutral, I kinda see 17-18 to be more similar to 2000-01 or 2008-09, but a lot will depend on whether we can obtain ridging in or around the West Coast area like we had this summer and if we can finally get a wintertime -NAO or -AO.   

 

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