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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 6501 times)

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Offline Coach B

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #15 on: July 26, 2017, 07:41:13 AM »
\
One thing to always remember is that it only takes 1 or 2 events to make a winter. For a good deal of Middle TN and KY the winter of 15-16 was a snowy winter, but it was also a very warm winter overall.  The Winter of 13-14 was a classic cold winter, but the I-40 corridor from Memphis to Jackson to Nashville got shafted when it came to snow.

Good points. Jan 2014 at OHX had seven days with lows in the single digits and  was -5.3 for the month.  Grand total of 0.4" of snow to show for it.  ::bangingheadintowall::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2017, 06:19:30 PM »
Most of our recent colder, snowier winters from 2013 to 2015 seemed to have one common factor--a warm pool of water in the north Pacific off of North America's west coast.  Additionally, most of those winters saw an absence of any prolonged -NAO/AO.  So, the warm water there turned out to be a bigger driver of cold in the East than the more talked about -NAO, as it pumped up a west coast ridge and a trough became locked in the East.  Last winter, that warm pool shrunk considerably--and a large area of cooler water appeared.  The west coast finally lost the ridge (and their drought), and we were mild.  Latest maps for June show mostly "normal" sea surface temperatures there.  I'm certainly no expert, but it might be important to watch what happens there between now and November/December. 


"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2017, 03:21:06 PM »
JB's early prediction - colder than the last 2 winters but not as extreme as 14-15 or 13-14. Cold seems to be centered in the northern plains and looks to make intrusions into our area on several occasions with an early starts and coldest into January. Looks like a blocky pattern overall. November - February in TN- normal temps and above normal precip

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2017, 01:33:40 PM »
JB's early prediction - colder than the last 2 winters but not as extreme as 14-15 or 13-14. Cold seems to be centered in the northern plains and looks to make intrusions into our area on several occasions with an early starts and coldest into January. Looks like a blocky pattern overall. November - February in TN- normal temps and above normal precip

Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2017, 02:09:47 PM »
Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::
which really isnt saying a whole lot.... ;)
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2017, 03:12:46 PM »
Colder than last 2 winters is doable.   ::coffee::

I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niņo to now a potential weak La Niņa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2017, 03:36:07 PM »
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niņo to now a potential weak La Niņa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
yeah... i would be more concerned about ice this winter... be honest
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #22 on: Yesterday at 11:57:54 AM »
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niņo to now a potential weak La Niņa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.

Good points.  Anything would be an improvement since our Super Nino of two years ago, and last year's continued torching.  Having a cooler/wetter summer makes me optimistic that this winter will also at least be "normal," which puts a few Arctic outbreaks and snow chances on the table.  Also, you mentioned a "blocky" pattern from time to time, which has been sorely lacking in the last two winters.  All in all, I think we'll at least have more to track this time around. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #23 on: Yesterday at 04:37:52 PM »
I thought his rationale was actually good this year. No hype but good basic facts. We have completely gone from models predicting a weak to moderate El Niņo to now a potential weak La Niņa or at least negative neutral. That usually pushes the cold air into the northern plains- should be easy access for our region for cold from time to time.
lot depends how strong the southeast ridge will get... more than not.. develops during any type nina....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #24 on: Today at 12:15:40 AM »
lot depends how strong the southeast ridge will get... more than not.. develops during any type nina....
The SER is a big deal for Tn. A lot of times it is our friend on the west side but no so much for the rest of the state. The SER has a lot to do with the north of 40 deal. If it's a weak to neutral La Niņa we could very well be in the battle zone.

 

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