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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 313759 times)

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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #705 on: December 18, 2017, 11:19:21 PM »
If you want to see a text book back in the good old days set up look no further than the 12z GFS. Hour 234


I agree, but from that point on in the frames it went south. But I agree it was a good look but would be a heartbreaker for many if it went that route for many including myself. Of course not being in the bullseye at this point may be a good thing, things are bound to still change.  ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #706 on: December 18, 2017, 11:39:28 PM »
Man I have not been this excited in a while. This is radically different than what we were stuck with these past two winters.

One place in a serious snow drought is Kentucky. The whole state received maximum of 1 or 2 inches out of last year's season. Most of TN picked up around 3 out of those systems we got in a January and March. That all stayed south of KY.

And I believe DC only got 7" of snow for the season which may have been among the lowest, but I could be incorrect.

Offline Clay

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #707 on: December 19, 2017, 12:19:26 AM »
Man I have not been this excited in a while. This is radically different than what we were stuck with these past two winters.

One place in a serious snow drought is Kentucky. The whole state received maximum of 1 or 2 inches out of last year's season. Most of TN picked up around 3 out of those systems we got in a January and March. That all stayed south of KY.

And I believe DC only got 7" of snow for the season which may have been among the lowest, but I could be incorrect.
Western KY was measuring snow in feet 2 years ago.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #708 on: December 19, 2017, 01:05:48 AM »
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Not exactly what we want to see, but the potential for snow remains. I think it may have shifted a little bit north from the 12Z run.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #709 on: December 19, 2017, 03:10:53 AM »
Just about all of that snow on the Euro is from the storm on the 28th that the GFS is showing. Euro has us at 20 degrees on the 26th and 27th. We are at 40 and rain on the 28th. Hard to believe the storm cuts straight north and pushes the cold air that quick. The Euro and GFS are in really good agreement through day 10 except the GFS keeps cold air locked in. If we could get a medium between the two we would be in business.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #710 on: December 19, 2017, 06:00:08 AM »
Just about all of that snow on the Euro is from the storm on the 28th that the GFS is showing. Euro has us at 20 degrees on the 26th and 27th. We are at 40 and rain on the 28th. Hard to believe the storm cuts straight north and pushes the cold air that quick. The Euro and GFS are in really good agreement through day 10 except the GFS keeps cold air locked in. If we could get a medium between the two we would be in business.
could the king be sniffing something out. Mmm
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #711 on: December 19, 2017, 08:05:04 AM »
Man I have not been this excited in a while. This is radically different than what we were stuck with these past two winters.

One place in a serious snow drought is Kentucky. The whole state received maximum of 1 or 2 inches out of last year's season. Most of TN picked up around 3 out of those systems we got in a January and March. That all stayed south of KY.

And I believe DC only got 7" of snow for the season which may have been among the lowest, but I could be incorrect.

The dreaded I-44 corridor is an area that has been in a snow drought.  The NWS of Springfield hasn't issued a Winter Storm Warning in around or near 800 days and the area from Tulsa to Springfield to St. Louis hasn't seen a classic snowstorm since the Groundhog Day Blizzard in 2011.  This is the area that stole many of our snows in the first decade of the 2000s. Southern Indiana and Ohio are also in a similar boat as those areas missed a large part of those powerhouse 2015 storms that impacted KY and NW TN.   

Locally the Memphis to Jackson to the southwestern part of Nashville really seems to have gotten left out since 2010-11 with the exception of the two events in 2014-15 and the impacts of the Blizzard of 2016 closer to Nashville.     

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #712 on: December 19, 2017, 08:28:24 AM »
MRX regarding tomorrow's system:

Quote
Our next system, a low moving out of Texas, will begin to set up
leading to a widespread rain event for the forecast area. Ahead of
the low a strong 850mb jet will set up and pump in abundant
moisture to the region. PWAT values jump up to near or above 1"
putting us above the 90th percentile for this time of year. The
southerly 850mb strong jet will likely be forced upwards towards
the upper level jet, leading to rapidly rising air and effective
precipitation. When all is said and done, many locations in SE
Tennessee could see around 2 inches of rain with locally higher
amounts, which could cause localized flooding. With how little
precipitation we`ve seen the past month or so (about 2 inches
below normal for this month in Chattanooga) hopefully the
rivers/lakes/soil will be able to absorb the heavy rain and keep
widespread flooding issues away
. There will be enough lift and
instability that we can`t rule out a rumble of thunder on
Wednesday as well. The main system and associated jet will
eventually move off to the East by Thursday morning and rain
chances will taper off during the day. Even with the increased
cloud coverage over the upcoming days the low level jet will help
bring in warmer air leading to relatively similar high
temperatures for the next couple of days.

Despite not being in a "classified" drought here on the Drought Monitor, I can attest that it's dry.  Most of the small ravines around the house that are usually running with water this time of the year are dry, and many local ponds are low or empty (I was told by a duck hunting friend).  The rain this week is welcome and needed.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Online snowdog

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #713 on: December 19, 2017, 11:00:04 AM »
12z GFS update.... <edit> add 12z CMC too

Cold and dry
Warm and wet

Alot of this...  ::drowning::
None of this...   ::snowman::

Offline Tamlin

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #714 on: December 19, 2017, 11:01:03 AM »
12z GFS update....

Cold and dry
Warm and wet

Alot of this...  ::drowning::
None of this...   ::snowman::

This is always the most likely solution for this part of the country.

Online snowdog

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #715 on: December 19, 2017, 11:02:34 AM »
This is always the most likely solution for this part of the country.

I was just having some fun. However, when you have that much cold air around and that much moisture around...you hope you can time one right...and we still may. Keep watching.

Online Coach B

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #716 on: December 19, 2017, 11:31:23 AM »
Unlike the OP run the 12Z GEFS locks in the cold next week with some precip chances, especially later in the week.

17 out of the 20 ensemble members of the 12Z GEFS show some amount of accumulating snow through January 2nd. Mean is 2" plus east of the TN River.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2017, 11:48:31 AM by Coach B »

Online snowdog

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #717 on: December 19, 2017, 02:15:44 PM »
EPS is further south than the GEFS with the snow, but the good stuff stays north of a line roughly from Springfield, MO to Roanoke, VA. Through 12 days.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #718 on: December 19, 2017, 02:44:35 PM »
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This will change radically by next week.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2017, 02:46:28 PM by schneitzeit, Reason: grammar »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #719 on: December 19, 2017, 03:00:55 PM »
(Attachment Link)

This will change radically by next week.
needs to change.... knew it was little low... but not this low.... getting well into december also
Come on severe wx season...

 

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