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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 277532 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #285 on: December 05, 2017, 11:49:26 AM »
GFS and Euro going just about bone dry on what was to potentially be the first flakes of the year. Cold and dry are the buzz words until the PNA ridge relaxes some.
were not going get much with this pattern other outside flurries.  Trough got to retrograde west some . Ready for big dog
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #286 on: December 05, 2017, 12:03:14 PM »
Seems like dry cold patterns in December are more the norm anyway than a pattern that really produces a big storm.

That's what I've observed.

Offline Coach B

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #287 on: December 05, 2017, 12:51:53 PM »
Seems like dry cold patterns in December are more the norm anyway than a pattern that really produces a big storm.

That's what I've observed.

You know, now that I think back you are right. There have been several cold periods in December in my lifetime but very few truly significant winter storms. December averages a full 10 degrees colder than March yet March averages more snowfall. Something about the wavelengths in the hemispheric patterns I believe.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #288 on: December 05, 2017, 01:22:22 PM »
You know, now that I think back you are right. There have been several cold periods in December in my lifetime but very few truly significant winter storms. December averages a full 10 degrees colder than March yet March averages more snowfall. Something about the wavelengths in the hemispheric patterns I believe.

That's also true of the big December Arctic outbreaks of 1983 & 1989.  Temps plunged to zero and below even as far south as KY and TN, but all I remember with both is light snow (1983), and some freezing rain (1989) where I lived in Kentucky.  Neither amounted to much, despite the severity of the cold air. 

Oh, to live near one of the Great Lakes--where all you need is cold air over the water to get snow. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Crockett

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #289 on: December 05, 2017, 01:28:07 PM »
Maybe I'm in the minority, but I'd rather have cold air in December than in February. At least it feels like Christmas. Our Christmas parade was Saturday and folks were out in shorts and flip-flops. It felt like Christmas in Orlando. So I'll take the upcoming pattern, even though it's looking increasingly dry.

Now, with that said, I'd rather have a pattern like December '11 (or was it '10? the years run together). We got two 6-inch-plus snows in December here on the plateau that month, one of them coming late Christmas eve into Christmas morning.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #290 on: December 05, 2017, 01:38:43 PM »
That's also true of the big December Arctic outbreaks of 1983 & 1989.  Temps plunged to zero and below even as far south as KY and TN, but all I remember with both is light snow (1983), and some freezing rain (1989) where I lived in Kentucky.  Neither amounted to much, despite the severity of the cold air. 

Oh, to live near one of the Great Lakes--where all you need is cold air over the water to get snow.
december 1989 we actually got couple inches  snow Christmas Eve night least west tn.  That came during when temps started  to modify from the massive arctic outbreak we had earlier that month. So we got white Christmas
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #291 on: December 05, 2017, 01:43:57 PM »
There is still time for the models to correct themselves by the weekend. I am confident enough to forecast upwards of a half inch for some residents on the Plateau near the TN/KY border, possibly around the Jamestown area. Here in Knox we will only see some flurries. This kind of clipper tends to skip the East TN Valley.

Post Merge: December 05, 2017, 01:50:20 PM
A similar clipper is forecast to pass through next Tuesday. I would not be surprised if we see more precip out of that system than the one this weekend. It looks like there's more energy and thus greater potential. The temperature gradient over the 48 hour period from Mon-Tues is steeper. I would cross my fingers for something to come out of this system.

I recall in December 2010, a surprise clipper passed through Nashville an produced at least 2". Seemed to come out of nowhere. Forecasts for these systems are constantly changing. Since we have the cold air necessary for December snow, I am more hopeful.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 01:50:20 PM by schneitzeit, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #292 on: December 05, 2017, 01:57:05 PM »
december 1989 we actually got couple inches  snow Christmas Eve night least west tn.  That came during when temps started  to modify from the massive arctic outbreak we had earlier that month. So we got white Christmas

Further east, it was mainly freezing rain & drizzle.  We had an ice Christmas.   :P
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Coach B

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #293 on: December 05, 2017, 03:02:35 PM »
I'd rather have a pattern like December '11 (or was it '10? the years run together). We got two 6-inch-plus snows in December here on the plateau that month, one of them coming late Christmas eve into Christmas morning.
It was 2010. Nashville even had 4.5" of snow for the month and snow fell on seven different days.

I enjoy snow best in the heart of winter from Christmas thru the first week or two of February. I like it to hang around for several days. Before and after this period I'd just as soon it be dry and 75. :)
« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 03:09:53 PM by Coach B »

Offline Beth

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #294 on: December 05, 2017, 03:25:26 PM »
This picture was Dec. 2010 about a week or two before Christmas. In fact we got two good snows before Christmas. I donít think Nashville got as much as we did in Dickson.   ::snowman::

Post Merge: December 05, 2017, 03:27:27 PM
Night time with Christmas lights!

Post Merge: December 05, 2017, 03:28:50 PM
These were made on Dec12 2010
« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 03:28:50 PM by Beth, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #295 on: December 05, 2017, 04:21:04 PM »
GFS has oh so slightly crept south on the 18z run. Still expecting the Plateau to see some accumulation.

Offline Skillsweather

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #296 on: December 05, 2017, 07:47:41 PM »
I dont even see any models showing any precip for us at all on Friday and Saturday.. Idk maybe im just stupid. But its like all the models show is the precip with the low in the Carolina's and along that area.
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Offline WXHD

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #297 on: December 05, 2017, 08:28:29 PM »
I dont even see any models showing any precip for us at all on Friday and Saturday.. Idk maybe im just stupid. But its like all the models show is the precip with the low in the Carolina's and along that area.

Ain't nothing coming our way. We're encouraged by an early model setup...... I hope.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly Ė raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #298 on: December 05, 2017, 08:36:04 PM »
Ain't nothing coming our way. We're encouraged by an early model setup...... I hope.
whats there to be encouraged by with this crappy pattern were stuck in... be lucky to even see token flakes with this set up.... :(
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #299 on: December 05, 2017, 08:37:36 PM »
whats there to be encouraged by with this crappy pattern were stuck in... be lucky to even see token flakes with this set up.... :(

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