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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 327588 times)

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Offline Drifter49

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #210 on: November 28, 2017, 06:32:07 PM »
From the tail end of MEG's  AFD this afternoon.

A pattern change looks
increasingly likely by the middle to end of next week with colder
temperatures and increasingly wet conditions expected.


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To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline justinmundie

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #211 on: November 29, 2017, 06:58:06 AM »
Donít get a much colder look than this....


Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #212 on: November 29, 2017, 07:17:46 AM »
From the tail end of MEG's  AFD this afternoon.

A pattern change looks
increasingly likely by the middle to end of next week with colder
temperatures and increasingly wet conditions expected.


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Both will be welcomed.   Latest GFS run (06Z) does show cold shots increasing in number and intensity toward the end of it's run.  Also interesting to see a large pool of even colder air growing in central and eastern Canada.   
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #213 on: November 29, 2017, 07:20:09 AM »
Channel 4 (WSMV Nashville) this morning mentioned the Arctic blast coming next week.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #214 on: November 29, 2017, 07:26:04 AM »
EPS goes cold for much of the country after the first week of December and stays that way through much of January.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #215 on: November 29, 2017, 07:37:00 AM »
After the last two torchy Decembers, it will be a welcome change to have cold, and even a few possible snow chances, during the Christmas season.  Maybe we can get a decent snow when the sun is at it's lowest in the sky.  The Great Snow Eater will be at it's weakest.   >:D
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #216 on: November 29, 2017, 07:37:54 AM »
EPS goes cold for much of the country after the first week of December and stays that way through much of January.
things also look dry as bone also... another thing i dont like is  there really isnt hardly much if any snowcover to our north in our country that is... sure way up cross border... see it it modifies slowly.... models may be over doing some things... to be hones key here is dry... getting worried

Post Merge: November 29, 2017, 07:39:16 AM
your not going to get s winter storm threat out of this up coming pattern as now... not hardly enough sw energy with gulf pretty much getting choked off... but cold does look promising
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #217 on: November 29, 2017, 09:44:25 AM »
Iím not too worried about snow cover- thatís something that can change in a week. Iím fact hereís the EPS 15 and 46 day mean.





I would love to see one of those patterns that lays down cold well before moisture returns. Itís been awhile vs abrupt changes- which I expect to see some of as well.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #218 on: November 29, 2017, 10:01:51 AM »
Iím not too worried about snow cover- thatís something that can change in a week. Iím fact hereís the EPS 15 and 46 day mean.





I would love to see one of those patterns that lays down cold well before moisture returns. Itís been awhile vs abrupt changes- which I expect to see some of as well.

How do you get access to this? I guess you have to pay?

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #219 on: November 29, 2017, 10:13:21 AM »
Iím not too worried about snow cover- thatís something that can change in a week. Iím fact hereís the EPS 15 and 46 day mean.





I would love to see one of those patterns that lays down cold well before moisture returns. Itís been awhile vs abrupt changes- which I expect to see some of as well.

Man, that's an impressive snowpack building just to our north--and it's only early December. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #220 on: November 29, 2017, 10:44:17 AM »
Man, that's an impressive snowpack building just to our north--and it's only early December.
thats based of models... we see if that pans out remains to be seen  then color me excited
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #221 on: November 29, 2017, 12:03:30 PM »
thats based of models... we see if that pans out remains to be seen  then color me excited

Yes, that's additional snow.  But there is already a decent cover of white over the border in Canada.  Models have been right on the money when it comes to the snow already there.  No reason to think they are suddenly going to be wrong. 

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #222 on: November 30, 2017, 11:54:26 AM »
Gfs has a fantasy storm per day. Gotta start someone and considering we couldnít get a fantasy storm last year- we are already ahead.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #223 on: November 30, 2017, 12:00:21 PM »
Gfs has a fantasy storm per day. Gotta start someone and considering we couldnít get a fantasy storm last year- we are already ahead.
yeah the h5 pattern on the 12z was pretty good... im starting get excited bit... ::yum::

Post Merge: November 30, 2017, 12:25:41 PM
this pattern im seeing on ensembles is outstanding if you want cold and winter... best i have seen in years to be honest... ::snowman:: ::cold::
« Last Edit: November 30, 2017, 12:25:41 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #224 on: November 30, 2017, 01:41:08 PM »
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

This is what we want a +PNA.  Good things happen when we have that because it leads to riding in the western USA and forces any cold air to pour into the Eastern 1/3 to 1/2th of the country. 

 

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