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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 270172 times)

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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1920 on: January 13, 2018, 12:33:14 PM »

This is 15:1 ratios. Thatís actually winter storm warning material in Arkansas
Curt, what's your best guess at what you think ratios could possibly be? Just like to hear your thoughts.  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Offline jbeasley10

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1921 on: January 13, 2018, 12:35:15 PM »
So who is going to pull the trigger on the Monday night thread?  lol
 

Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1922 on: January 13, 2018, 12:37:17 PM »
Latest GFS and NAM suites pulling back on moisture content.  See what the Euro does today.   ::coffee::

From what I have read.  Seems the H5 looks great on the GFS but for some reason it went backwards in precip which makes no sense.

Offline Clint

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1923 on: January 13, 2018, 12:37:32 PM »
Euro looks like 2-3" here in Memphis. Little early to speculate but possible Winter weather advisory locally.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1924 on: January 13, 2018, 12:38:30 PM »
Winter Storm Bugalou was a success for some. As we move to the letter C Winter Storm Curt it is.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1925 on: January 13, 2018, 12:41:25 PM »
Winter Storm Bugalou was a success for some. As we move to the letter C Winter Storm Curt it is.
well... if you went with bruce ... it would been a ll out blizzard for us finally.... >:D
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mempho

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1926 on: January 13, 2018, 12:42:16 PM »
Euro looks like 2-3" here in Memphis. Little early to speculate but possible Winter weather advisory locally.
Strange scenario in that just slightly more than a like 0.15" swing in QPF could mean the difference between not even an advisory-level event to a WSW verification. 

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline mempho

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1927 on: January 13, 2018, 12:43:35 PM »
Winter Storm Bugalou was a success for some. As we move to the letter C Winter Storm Curt it is.
If we make it to Mempho-  wow, what a winter!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1928 on: January 13, 2018, 12:45:35 PM »

This is 15:1 ratios. Thatís actually winter storm warning material in Arkansas
Bufkit data last night showed ratios starting around 12:1 end  at 20:1 ish........ So 15:1 may be middle ground. At least to come up with a forecast.


Offline mempho

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1929 on: January 13, 2018, 12:47:36 PM »
Bufkit data last night showed ratios starting around 12:1 end  at 20:1 ish........ So 15:1 may be middle ground. At least to come up with a forecast.
Hard to really argue with that logic.  Some models had a small amount of liquid QPF to start-  is that still the case?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1930 on: January 13, 2018, 12:48:45 PM »
Hard to really argue with that logic.  Some models had a small amount of liquid QPF to start-  is that still the case?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Most have it strengthing right as it reaches TN, then once past ,starts to weaken again. Taking blend we have around .10"QPF to work with, that could be a inch or two. More QPF as you move SW it seems... Still a lot of time to see how this taps moisture.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2018, 12:50:22 PM by Nashville_Wx »


Online Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1931 on: January 13, 2018, 12:49:16 PM »
Winter Storm Bugalou was a success for some. As we move to the letter C Winter Storm Curt it is.

Ha! If it fails I get a redo

Offline mempho

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1932 on: January 13, 2018, 12:53:19 PM »
Ha! If it fails I get a redo
Only appropriate since one of your favorite storms is the January 1985 Arctic front show....

Maybe, we'll get something memorable from this one as well. 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline MemphisJDJ

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1933 on: January 13, 2018, 01:14:56 PM »
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Just for reference, here's the WSW threshold for pure snowfall in MEG's CWA.

Offline Clint

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1934 on: January 13, 2018, 01:20:30 PM »
Has MEG ever had to issue a WSW for two different storms three days apart?

 

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