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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 125643 times)

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Offline Coach B

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1860 on: January 11, 2018, 11:34:55 AM »
GFS and CMC both look pretty healthy with the clipper Monday night. Maybe those of us who miss out tomorrow can sneak in a light accumulation to make us all feel better about the deep freeze next week.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1861 on: January 11, 2018, 11:44:43 AM »
Wasn't 2014 on par?

That would probably be closest recent comparison.  But this cold hit hard starting the week of Christmas.  That's pretty early for our area to have an intense cold spell that lasts two weeks--at least lately.  Most arrive around mid January into mid- February.  Even so, it still can't hold a candle to the "good 'ole days."

Post Merge: January 11, 2018, 11:46:15 AM
GFS and CMC both look pretty healthy with the clipper Monday night. Maybe those of us who miss out tomorrow can sneak in a light accumulation to make us all feel better about the deep freeze next week.

I've noticed it is looking much healthier on the GFS today--a pretty wound up little system.   Could hold a surprise or two for our area.   Chris Bailey is about on board for Kentucky folks.

Quote
Frigid temps follow this up for the weekend and I’m close to issuing a Winter Storm Threat for Monday and Tuesday. With arctic air in place, the system diving in from the northwest can put down several inches of snow and create blowing snow…
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 11:54:12 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1862 on: January 11, 2018, 02:13:48 PM »
Winter Storm Warnings are not out for West and Western Middle TN.  Nashville and points east are under a Winter Weather Advisory. 

Online ultra mag

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1863 on: January 11, 2018, 02:40:20 PM »
 Yes west tn is it just came over my radio starts at mid night tonight

Online Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1864 on: January 11, 2018, 06:43:22 PM »
Winter Storm Warnings are not out for West and Western Middle TN.  Nashville and points east are under a Winter Weather Advisory.
They are out for west and western middle. I am sure you didn't mean to put that not in there. But they are out. ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Offline Michael

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1865 on: January 12, 2018, 12:31:37 PM »
While today’s event is going on, 12z GFS and Euro showing better potential for Tuesday. Euro close to giving East Tn its turn. But everyone may see a little something out of it.


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Offline Susan

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1866 on: January 12, 2018, 12:44:30 PM »
I'm ready to start watching models for Monday night.   8)
All my misspelled words, typos, and grammatical errors, are intentional, and intended to troll and provoke.

Offline justinmundie

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1867 on: January 12, 2018, 12:53:00 PM »
I'm ready to start watching models for Monday night.   8)

I think you’re right on. That one will sneak up on us. And ratios could potentially be really good. And nearly every flake will stick.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1868 on: January 12, 2018, 01:05:17 PM »
I think you’re right on. That one will sneak up on us. And ratios could potentially be really good. And nearly every flake will stick.

Euro has 0.15-0.20 at Memphis with GFS at 0.10- both with temps in the teens. Stout ratios there for sure. Arkansas looks really good.

Don't miss temps tomorrow night over the snowpack in west TN and clearing skies. Don't be surprised to see low single digits. and of course potential below zero low temps next week.

Post Merge: January 12, 2018, 01:37:12 PM
Euro has 0.15-0.20 at Memphis with GFS at 0.10- both with temps in the teens. Stout ratios there for sure. Arkansas looks really good.

Don't miss temps tomorrow night over the snowpack in west TN and clearing skies. Don't be surprised to see low single digits. and of course potential below zero low temps next week.

EPS members are all over this
« Last Edit: January 12, 2018, 01:37:12 PM by Curt, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1869 on: January 12, 2018, 01:39:20 PM »
While today’s event is going on, 12z GFS and Euro showing better potential for Tuesday. Euro close to giving East Tn its turn. But everyone may see a little something out of it.


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12Z GFS shows this thing really blowing up, but just on the other side of the mountains in NC.  Getting close.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Michael

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1870 on: January 12, 2018, 02:25:19 PM »
12Z GFS shows this thing really blowing up, but just on the other side of the mountains in NC.  Getting close.

This one will be ours. I got s feeling the Valley will score on this. I think some of that will make it over the mountains. This really starting to look like something. Will be interesting to see next updates. I mean this is only 84-96 hrs out. Not like this is a day 7 look.


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Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1871 on: January 12, 2018, 02:41:57 PM »
PER MRX:

Quote
A deep upper low and positively tilted upper trough swing into our
area Monday night into Tuesday bringing another cold front through
the area. Confidence is high that all precip should be in the form
of snow with this system but agreement on timing and amount of
moisture is still in question. Latest GFS brings the snow in late
Monday night and exits on Tuesday afternoon and is drier. The ECMWF
however doesn`t bring it in until Tuesday morning and doesn`t exit
until Wednesday morning and is wetter. Leaning slightly toward the
ECMWF at this time so Tuesday will feature the highest POPs with
chance POPs in place for all areas.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Heath22

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1872 on: January 12, 2018, 02:43:12 PM »
This one will be ours. I got s feeling the Valley will score on this. I think some of that will make it over the mountains. This really starting to look like something. Will be interesting to see next updates. I mean this is only 84-96 hrs out. Not like this is a day 7 look.


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Is this looking like just an East Tennessee thing?
Commodores are the 2014 Baseball national Champions!!!!!!!!

Offline Susan

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1873 on: January 12, 2018, 03:38:54 PM »
Quote
FXUS64 KOHX 122050
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
250 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are now below freezing across just about the entire mid
state. Values range from near 20 west, to the lower 30s Plateau.
Snowfall is now moving eastward across northwestern portions of the
cwa, and will be entering north central areas, including Nashville,
over the next couple of hours. Elsewhere, patchy light mixed
precipitation is ongoing.

The shortwave axis will swing across our area this evening. The
aforementioned area of snowfall will traverse eastward as well.
Accumulating snows from noon today through this evening will range
from near 3 inches far northwest, with 1 to 2 inches across the
remainder of the north half of middle TN. Across the south, less
than 1 inch, with just a dusting along the TN/AL border.

Colder air will continue to infiltrate the region overnight. Morning
lows will dip into the teens area wide, with highs on Saturday 25 to
30. Sunday morning, the sfc high will be in very close proximity.
Also, given the light snowpack across the north, will undercut lows.
Look for lows of 10 to 15 degrees.

Moving on, a clipper system will be on tap for the area for Monday
night and into Tuesday. This could bring another round of snowfall
with up to an inch or so of accumulation possible.
Otw, behind the
clipper system it will turn even colder and a light snowpack may be
in place across northern areas. That said, Tuesday may feature high
temperatures that remain in the teens. Perhaps on Wednesday we may
be able to breach 20 degrees. Overnight lows look like single digits
for the middle of the week with a few readings approaching zero far
north.
The good news is that wind speeds do not appear to be all
that strong behind the clipper system.

Will we warm up? Yes, we will reach the 30s on Thursday with some
lower 40s Friday. It will remain dry as well.
All my misspelled words, typos, and grammatical errors, are intentional, and intended to troll and provoke.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1874 on: January 12, 2018, 03:50:19 PM »
Euro has 0.15-0.20 at Memphis with GFS at 0.10- both with temps in the teens. Stout ratios there for sure. Arkansas looks really good.

Don't miss temps tomorrow night over the snowpack in west TN and clearing skies. Don't be surprised to see low single digits. and of course potential below zero low temps next week.

Post Merge: January 12, 2018, 01:37:12 PM
EPS members are all over this

Will Memphis and surrounding get the crown jewel that is snow on snow?  MEG upped the chances to 60% from 20% earlier. 

 

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