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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 297893 times)

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #165 on: November 02, 2017, 05:46:17 PM »
Winter Forecast by DT WXRisk

https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718shortB.pdf

Good stuff.  Thanks for posting!
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #166 on: November 03, 2017, 09:14:25 AM »
I 44 really going be cross heirs this winter... mainly snow... due  to ridge placement ....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #167 on: November 03, 2017, 10:13:26 AM »
Based on weak La Nina winters with a solid negative QBO which is what we will see this winter- here are snowfall amounts.

1962-63-Dec to Feb incredibly cold before easing up in March
Memphis 6.1
Nashville  23.7
Knoxville  18.3
Chatt  3.4

1967-68 December warm, Jan- March cold and snowy
Memphis 23.8
Nashville  27
Knoxville  12.5
Chatt  10.5

1981-82 December to Feb cold
Memphis 6.7
Nashville 9.5
Knoxville  9.4
Chatt  5.2

1983-84- Brutal cold December and January
Memphis 4
Nashville  7.7
Knoxville 6.2
Chatt 2.3

2000-2001 Near record cold Dec, cold Jan, warm Feb, cold March
Memphis 3
Nashville 2.5
Knoxville 0
Chatt 0
(Memphis also had a moderate ice storm mid December)

Memphis hit 0 or below in 3/5 of those winters (62-63, 81-82, 83-84)so you know the rest of the state was colder at least. The other 2 (67-68 and 00-01) Memphis was in the single digits.



Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #168 on: November 03, 2017, 12:53:34 PM »
The temperature gradient should be steep across the midwest this winter. Hope we can get some cold snaps out of shifts in the jet stream. It won't take much distance for a cold air mass to reach us. As y'all said, it looks like it's splitting the I-44 OKC/Tulsa/Missouri corridor.

Just hoping this weak La Nina won't be a copy of 2011-12. Whole U.S. torched except for the Pacific NW, and Portland, Oregon was among the few cities that recorded above avg snowfall. The trend for the 1st half of this November has been similar. Crossing my fingers for a major pattern shift.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #169 on: November 03, 2017, 02:03:36 PM »
The temperature gradient should be steep across the midwest this winter. Hope we can get some cold snaps out of shifts in the jet stream. It won't take much distance for a cold air mass to reach us. As y'all said, it looks like it's splitting the I-44 OKC/Tulsa/Missouri corridor.

Just hoping this weak La Nina won't be a copy of 2011-12. Whole U.S. torched except for the Pacific NW, and Portland, Oregon was among the few cities that recorded above avg snowfall. The trend for the 1st half of this November has been similar. Crossing my fingers for a major pattern shift.

I do believe that La Nina (2011-12) was a moderate one and west based. Springfield MO to STL always stands a climatologically better chance- SE ridge or not. The SE Ridge does move, it doesn't just stay at one point for 3 months.


Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #170 on: November 03, 2017, 02:16:05 PM »
Think it's safe to say using any analog beyond 1990 isn't feasible  due to climate change... Know going get roasted... but it's what it is ... I hate it just like rest of you.... but yeah se ridge will move around quite a bit  during Nina winters....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Winter 2017-18
« Reply #171 on: November 03, 2017, 02:17:30 PM »
Think it's safe to say using any analog beyond 1990 isn't feasible  due to climate change... Know going get roasted... but it's what it is ... I hate it just like rest of you.... but yeah we ridge will move around quite a bit  during Nina winters....

Wait- you said 1985 earlier? While no winter is exactly alike, I can give you multiple analogs with similar features post and pre 85 or 90.
 
Maybe Crockett can jump back in lol
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 02:19:17 PM by Curt »

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #172 on: November 03, 2017, 02:37:26 PM »
Most people like their winters warmer than usual, but I'm the opposite; I think an abnormally warm winter is very depressing. Maybe my opinion of a warm winter would change if I spent one winter in Russia   ::cold::

Please, Mother Nature, don't give me '11-'12 or the last two winters. I want a break from this warm crap.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #173 on: November 03, 2017, 07:57:11 PM »
I could not resist the urge of releasing some of my predictions. 

I want to thank Curt for his input as it allowed for me to think about some more things.  In honor of Microsoft Paint and what it has done for us weenies, I made some Microsoft Paint maps as our chapter with Paint is about to close. 

A few quick thoughts about this outlook:

- This winter does not have a lot of analogs. A -QBO, 2nd Year Weak -ENSO event that is also east based is not too common in the analogs so we have somewhat of a unique situation.  I think the winters that Curt mentioned plus 84-85 are probably the closest you are going to get to analogs. 

- Remember that 2nd year La Nina's tend to be much different from their former La Nina for better (1917-18, 1950-51, and 1984-85) or for worse (2011-12).  The only exception to that rule was 1999-00 which was similar to 1998-99 but both of those were much stronger events than this one will be. 

The Factors:

- The -QBO which will help us out as long as it doesn't get too negative (see DT WX Risk for a better explanation)

- A Weak La Nina event that will weaken throughout the winter.  Also it is east-based which is known to be better for our area versus a west-based La Nina. 
 
- We may be able to finally take advantage of the increased snowcover to the north. In 2015-16 we couldn't because we had a super El-Nino, and a locked in place southeast ridge prevented us from accessing it last winter along with a +QBO. 

- The pattern in the late Summer and Fall at least hints that the ridge can be temporarily broken.

- Finally the southeastern ridge.  I think this ridge will be stubborn early on, but it may allow for bitter cold to build to our north and this could prove important as we head further into the winter.   
 

The Outlook:

December:  This month I think goes a lot like October went.  It starts off warm due to a strong -PNA and probably +NAO.  The ridge is at its strongest point during the timeframe, but cold and snowy conditions are allowed to build to our northwest and by month's end we will shift into a true winter pattern with a possible significant weather event (either winter or severe) to accompany that.

Departure from Normal:
Chattanogga: +3.1
Clarksville: +2.5
Knoxville: +3.5
Memphis: +2.5
Nashville: +2.9
Paducah KY: +2.5




January


Boom!! goes the dynamite and that airmass that has been building to our northwest will be released.  It would be a good time for the PNA to go neutral and the NAO to at least to Neutral or even Negative and for us to dent the SE Ridge.  I think January is our coldest and probably snowiest month.  Warmer air may try and filter in from the south occasionally so watch out for both snow and ice events. 

Departure from Normal:
Chattanooga: -2.8
Clarksville: -3.5
Knoxville: -2.8
Memphis: -3.0
Nashville: -3.3
Paducah, KY: -4.5



February: 

A very tough month to predict.  The effects of the La Nina may start to fade a bit, but I think the ridging in the southern USA will be hard to shake.  My best call is that the entranced airmass of winter goodness hangs around the Northwest, Midwest, and perhaps Ohio Valley, while portions of the southeast return back to their regular scheduled programming of warmer than average temperatures. Several of our closer analogs show this so it is a possible scenario.  If this happens a battleground zone could set up over our region leading to active weather of both the severe and winter weather variety.  The other possible alternative is the cold air of January could linger but I don't think that is as likely. 

Departures from Normal:
Chattanogga: +0.5
Clarksville: -0.9
Knoxville: Average
Memphis: Average
Nashville: -0.2



Precip:
There a lot of people that think the La Nina= Dry Southeast, but as Curt mentioned east-based La Ninas can bring above average precipitation to a good chunk of Tennessee and even adjacent parts of MS/AL as well.  I think that is something that may catch a few people in parts of MS/AL and even TN off guard a bit.  Plus if my cold January verifies then that will help push the battleground zone further south. 



Some other predictions:


- Increased model confusion.  I am predicting that the models will be less accurate this year due to the potential for sudden pattern changes.  Models do not handle those well at all and with southern ridging one has to always fear the NW Trend.

- Don't forget about severe weather:  I do think at least one significant severe/tornado threat will get us sometime this winter.  I would say that late December and February have the greatest severe threats based on my outlook. 

Enjoy and have a great rest of Fall and have a great Winter 2017-18.  There is potential to have fun just like Curt and others have mentioned.  We shall see if that potential can be unleased. 
« Last Edit: November 03, 2017, 07:59:41 PM by StormNine »

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #174 on: November 03, 2017, 09:58:11 PM »
Good write up Storm9! Enjoyed it.

Offline Curt

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Winter 2017-18
« Reply #175 on: November 03, 2017, 11:49:11 PM »
Well thought out and I largely agree with you. Great job man!

We are well past forecasts that broad brush enso into one. One more thing I might add is the cold comes on strong with MJO phases 8 to 2. Also a strat warning could make things colder for longer periods instead of vacillating on the see saw.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 07:42:53 AM by Curt »

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #176 on: November 03, 2017, 11:49:49 PM »
Great write up by Curt and Storm9. The snowman is ready! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline vanster67

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #177 on: November 04, 2017, 12:18:06 AM »
Really like the outlook Storm nine and Curts input as well.  Here's to having a solid winter ::flag::

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #178 on: November 04, 2017, 04:53:38 AM »
some are under estimating the southeast ridge quite bit.... ice going to be more problem than snow this winter overall... were over due for a good ice storm...  and pretty  transient cold type pattern what we will see...  over all quick prediction from me is going to be temps above average... precip average for this up coming winter... book it dano....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #179 on: November 04, 2017, 06:38:20 AM »
I've really enjoyed reading the information and forecasts posted here.  Thanks, folks.  Good, well thought out opinions and outlooks.

As for the southeast ridge, it can rear it's ugly head.  It did in December of 84, and gave us a record warm month of rain and severe weather.  But the ridge moves, and can be shoved out of the way long enough to provide us with a pattern change.  As we know, the ridge was no longer the bully on the block in January '85. (And Storm9's outlook looks a lot like 84-85--warm December, cold January).  All it takes is a strong -AO, or a potent Greenland block, or a temporary ridge to build up the west coast of NA for us to tap into the cold building in Canada.  And the cold is there this year, and a growing snow pack to our north will keep it there. Between the cold there, and the warmth of the southeast ridge, a strengthening jet stream will develop with the battle ground spawning numerous strong storm systems.  All the long-range outlooks showing above normal precip in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys support that idea.  As we all know, it's the difference in temperatures across the globe that spawns storms, and there is one heck of a temperature gradient developing across North America in the current pattern. If that lingers into spring--watch out!

For the last 3 years we've had a pretty quiet weather pattern with only brief bouts of any winter or severe weather.  If you want to go way back, we really haven't had a hyper-active weather pattern since 10-11 when that spring saw one severe outbreak after another, including the big one on 4/27.   From what I've seen posted here by Curt, Storm9 and others, we are about to enter a very volatile and changeable weather situation, and some would say we are due, since for many years the weather has been pretty benign around here, overall.

I say buckle up boys and girls.  The upcoming winter and spring could be a bumpy ride. 
« Last Edit: November 04, 2017, 01:49:38 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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