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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 297892 times)

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Offline Drifter49

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #150 on: October 23, 2017, 08:42:19 PM »
I'll take an 84-85 please!


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Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline Clint

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #151 on: October 24, 2017, 01:46:11 AM »
I would love to experience another 1984 - 1985 type Winter. The Jan 3, 1985 storm is my all-time favorite. This storm caught my wife and I by complete surprise. I remember rain changed to snow around mid morning (10:00 AM) and snowed hard all that day. Memphis received anywhere from 10-12 inches. Also, this was a Daytime snow which made it that much better. Fun Winter!

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #152 on: October 24, 2017, 08:19:19 AM »
Dyer when you see this I sent you a private message. Here's to a great winter. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline joemomma

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #153 on: October 30, 2017, 07:44:55 AM »
We had a few brief periods of some light mixed precipitation yesterday.  It was nice to see.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #154 on: October 30, 2017, 09:44:28 PM »
Region 3.4 cooled to - 0.8 and has fluctuated back and forth between weak Nina and cool neutral for awhile. Its forecast to bottom out in December about where it is and slowly warm. 3.4 needs to be negative for 3 consecutive months for an official event. No model brings 3.4 into anything more than weak Nina territory before warming begins.

1.2 (east)  -1.4
3.0(central) -1.1
3.4(central)  -0.8
4.0 (western) -0.4

Its incredibly important to look at ALL regions and they're relationship to each other in an ENSO event. Last winter was a weak Nina- but with the western regions colder than the eastern ones. This winter is polar opposite of last in regards to SST with 1.2 significantly colder than the central and eastern basins. I think we end up with a weak Nina in 3.4 that is trumped by colder waters to its east. Analogs such as these are the ones that produce lots of variability in winter weather vs. anemic winter weather like last year.

The western and central pacific actually  warmed over the last week while the east remained the coldest again. This is pretty typical.

1.2. -1.4
3.0  -0.8
3.4. -0.5
4.0. -0.2

This still looks like a very east based La Niña with a strongly negative QBO and neutral to slightly positive PDO. I’m still thinking highly variable winter especially if one of those arctic fronts gets stuck in our area.


Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #155 on: October 31, 2017, 06:51:36 AM »
The western and central pacific actually  warmed over the last week while the east remained the coldest again. This is pretty typical.

1.2. -1.4
3.0  -0.8
3.4. -0.5
4.0. -0.2

This still looks like a very east based La Niña with a strongly negative QBO and neutral to slightly positive PDO. I’m still thinking highly variable winter especially if one of those arctic fronts gets stuck in our area.

While we are in a mild spell over the next week, GFS has snow continuing to pile up just over the border in Canada.  Some impressive totals showing up over the next two weeks.  Plenty of cold gathering as well, unlike the last two years when true Arctic air was sparse on our side of the globe.  It only takes a brief pattern change (-NAO) to tap into some of that cold.  It might not last all winter long, but I'll take one or two weeks of winter weather over nothing at all.   
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #156 on: October 31, 2017, 10:25:45 AM »
Great winter write up on WeatherBell today, Courtesy Joe D' Aleo:

October has been on average warm in the eastern half of the nation (exception south Texas) and the southwest but cold northwest



The month has ended with cold air in the central states and the first snows.



It has been wet in the Midwest but dry in North Dakota and in the south.




See the first snows in the last few days in the northern most areas including the northwest Lakes.





Temperatures in La Ninas tend to start winter (NDJ) coldest in the northern Plains, warmest in Texas. Mid to late winters (JFM) are coldest northwest and north central warmest south east back to Texas.




The La Ninas are nuanced by the QBO state with similar results for the solar effects. Easterly QBOs mean more high latitude blocking and suppressed cold, though not immune to the La Nina intraseasonal variability when the resulting blocking eases.





The Pioneer which includes ENSO,ocean warm and cold pools and ocean oscillations, solar and QBO shows a cold winter for all but the southwest.




See how much the temperature match the CAI easterly QBO scenario

December to February Temperature Anomalies East QBO (Cai)

La Ninas are dry south, wet northwest and in mid to late winter the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, Great Lakes on northeast, along the boundary of the coldest air.




Pioneer hints at that.




Note in the snowfall La Nina climatology, the northwest down to Sierra and the Rockies are snowiest January to March. The Ohio and Tennessee valley can have early snows. The central high Plains is below normal. In January to March, the Mid Atlantic and central high plains have less than normal snows. It is snowy across the Northwest, north central and northeast. The Ohio Valley to the Delta is on average is prone to above normal snows.




The latest EPS is starting to show the northern cold and southern warmth.



It shows the dry central and northern plains but wet northwest to the Sierra, Midwest and Great Lakes to the northeast.




Snow really builds in Canada and in the west and the northern plains to northern Lakes and northern parts of the northeast.




Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #157 on: October 31, 2017, 01:59:26 PM »
Thanks for sharing Curt. I like where we sit. Should have a few good chances this year, timing as always will be key.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #158 on: November 01, 2017, 10:08:02 PM »
I will post my winter thoughts this weekend.  Curt has a lot of good stuff and good thoughts and some of his thoughts are also how I think winter could potentially go. 

This picture is a hint of my thoughts at this time.
 

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #159 on: November 01, 2017, 10:51:27 PM »
It looks more promising than the last two winters. Bring on the snow  ::popcorn::  ::snowman::

Any chance at a snowfall this month? I want someone in Tennessee to cash in early.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #160 on: November 02, 2017, 04:16:00 AM »
It looks more promising than the last two winters. Bring on the snow  ::popcorn::  ::snowman::

Any chance at a snowfall this month? I want someone in Tennessee to cash in early.
not likely... but if... t be at very end of month... december will likely be our coldest month overall temp wise... thinking... january and february will be some swings... leading to more viotale weatherincluding severe wx chances for the midsouth and tennessee valley region....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline @NashSevereWx

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #161 on: November 02, 2017, 09:22:12 AM »
The 1104 hour 10:1 ratio ECMWF EPS is one of my faves #accuweather.
Nowcasting Severe Weather
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NashSevereWx.com on the web

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #162 on: November 02, 2017, 09:29:52 AM »
I will post my winter thoughts this weekend.  Curt has a lot of good stuff and good thoughts and some of his thoughts are also how I think winter could potentially go. 

This picture is a hint of my thoughts at this time.
 

I have a "feeling" that western TN (from Nashville westward) will have the better potential for winter weather, including some overrunning ice events.  From Curt's postings, east TN is a little closer to the ridge, and will probably need a decent -NAO and the resulting blocking to suppress the ridge long enough to cash in on some winter fun. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #163 on: November 02, 2017, 11:39:00 AM »
Winter Forecast by DT WXRisk

https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718shortB.pdf

Offline Drifter49

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #164 on: November 02, 2017, 01:56:20 PM »
I have a "feeling" that western TN (from Nashville westward) will have the better potential for winter weather, including some overrunning ice events.  From Curt's postings, east TN is a little closer to the ridge, and will probably need a decent -NAO and the resulting blocking to suppress the ridge long enough to cash in on some winter fun.
NE AR, the MO boot heel and Western KY will probably fair a little better. Oh let's not forget I44


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