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Author Topic: Winter 2017-18  (Read 31266 times)

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Offline Curt

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Winter 2017-18
« on: July 20, 2017, 11:15:39 AM »
I think it's appropriate to start since we are approaching excessive heat on the late July day. Go get 'em.

Weak modoki El Niņo conditions with last 2 winters in record warm territory?  Crossing fingers....

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2017, 11:35:47 AM »
I think it's appropriate to start since we are approaching excessive heat on the late July day. Go get 'em.

Weak modoki El Niņo conditions with last 2 winters in record warm territory?  Crossing fingers....

Actually, I think we are very close to climatological peak of summer heat (about one month after solstice). If you look at climate records, as I recall, the daily averages begin to (albeit very sloooooowly at first) drop in late July. The climatological averages (as I recall, looking at this stuff in the past) will lose a degree or two over the next few weeks into August, before accelerating a downward trend as we head toward September. So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.  ;)

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2017, 01:46:08 PM »
Actually, I think we are very close to climatological peak of summer heat (about one month after solstice). If you look at climate records, as I recall, the daily averages begin to (albeit very sloooooowly at first) drop in late July. The climatological averages (as I recall, looking at this stuff in the past) will lose a degree or two over the next few weeks into August, before accelerating a downward trend as we head toward September. So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.  ;)

I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2017, 02:21:39 PM »
So, we could say that the descent into winter climatologically begins right about now.  ;)
I'll gladly take a descent into autumn for a while; it's been a long time since we had a good, colorful, crisp fall season in East TN.  I'm always a big fan when we do get one; the cooler air after a hot summer coupled with college football and all the great cooking that starts happening that time of year is almost magic.

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2017, 03:25:21 PM »
I would take a carbon copy of laster winter but a little bit cooler. I was lucky enough to make it back to Nashville for the 3" we had on March 11th. It was a nice welcoming home. Its impossibe to tell if our localized area will cash out. As I always love snow IMBY , its TN and we must be mobile.


Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2017, 07:29:32 PM »
As a youngin', it was usually this time of the year my thoughts turned toward winter and snow.  Guess it must genetic if other people do the same thing.   :D ::snow::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2017, 09:53:36 PM »
As a youngin', it was usually this time of the year my thoughts turned toward winter and snow.  Guess it must genetic if other people do the same thing.   :D ::snow::
when i was a young boy... my thoughts about this time year turned to football... and it still does... ::yum::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2017, 06:26:39 AM »
when i was a young boy... my thoughts about this time year turned to football... and it still does... ::yum::
Well, there's certainly not going to be any freeze for Ole Miss fans this season  ::evillaugh::

Online Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2017, 08:47:21 PM »
Football and winter snows are for sure in my thoughts. ::popcorn:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::snowman::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #9 on: July 22, 2017, 04:40:23 PM »
Football, falling leaves, falling temperatures and tailgating all go hand in hand.  :)

Of course, most of my "tailgating" now happens on the deck these days.  ::yum::

Post Merge: July 22, 2017, 04:45:05 PM
I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".

Well, you did skip autumn altogether, but o well.   ;)
« Last Edit: July 22, 2017, 04:45:05 PM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #10 on: July 22, 2017, 08:25:02 PM »
The modoki El Niņo has my attention. Let's see if Curt has the mojo this year.  ::fingerscrossed::

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2017, 07:45:05 AM »
The modoki El Niņo has my attention. Let's see if Curt has the mojo this year.  ::fingerscrossed::
from what i have been reading from some good winter posters on other site... any type of el nino this winter seems to be fading...   neutral? :-\ l

Post Merge: July 23, 2017, 07:48:38 AM
I'm waiting on someone to say " just look what you've done. It's all your fault".
o, just wait... this will happen when were about 2 third of winter done...no snow and some torchy temps have occured >:D

Post Merge: July 23, 2017, 09:48:45 AM
just to sort of edit my last post bit...  curt to be honest... should be in all honest pretty safe from someone blaming you for a bad winter... cause you didnt label it as a epic winter, as we all know isnt going to happen again perhaps in our lifetime... someone had to start the topic... good time as any bud... ;)
« Last Edit: July 23, 2017, 09:48:45 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2017, 11:26:16 PM »
This far out, I don't have much to go on except looking at our over all pattern year to date and extrapolation combined with past experience with midsouth weather and sea surface temp patterns.

That being said, right now my feeling is a cold mid to late fall, warm Dec and part of January, then a cold end to the winter.  It's hopeless to predict snow and winter weather, but I bet we see a minor shot of it late in the fall, and February is always the best time here for snow so it being cold then is ideal.

I will reply in a few months with something more scientific, but for the sake of discussion this is my best guess currently.

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Offline wfrogge

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2017, 01:11:35 PM »
Jan 11th 2018 for a wicked mixed precipitation event over the west part of the state. Making the call now  ::rofl::

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2017-18
« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2017, 07:32:35 PM »
Quote
Ocean temperatures at the surface of the tropical Pacific are warm enough to meet the ocean threshold for El Niņo, but the atmosphere still hasn't reacted. According to the latest forecast, ENSO-neutral remains the most likely (50 to ~55% chance) outcome through Northern Hemisphere fall 2017
\

From NOAA.

It looks like it will be a Neutral although a Weak El-Nino cannot be completely ruled out. The PDO looks to be on the + side and the PNA, for the most part, has been + recently. If those stay on the + side then I think we have at least a decent shot for a respectable winter. 

One thing to always remember is that it only takes 1 or 2 events to make a winter. For a good deal of Middle TN and KY the winter of 15-16 was a snowy winter, but it was also a very warm winter overall.  The Winter of 13-14 was a classic cold winter, but the I-40 corridor from Memphis to Jackson to Nashville got shafted when it came to snow. 

 

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