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Author Topic: Summer 2017  (Read 124310 times)

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Offline Crockett

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #75 on: June 19, 2017, 07:56:43 PM »
One thing to note is that with weak tropical storms the heavy precipitation area can be displaced well east and north from where the actual storm center travels.

Post Merge: June 19, 2017, 06:22:00 PM
I can't imagine anyone enjoying destructive severe storms or tornadoes, but there are those who do, and many unabashedly show their excitement each severe weather season on this forum.  Others show up in winter and go crazy over a heavy snow storm in the forecast.  Heavy rain, drought, tornadoes, severe storms, heavy snow, ice storms, extreme cold/heat--all of it brings hardship to human beings in one way or another.  It's weather, and we're just here to talk about it--nothing more.

In fairness, I believe those who root for severe weather are weird, too.

Offline bigdog660

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #76 on: June 20, 2017, 12:12:30 AM »
Exactly.  Over my way, I've only had an inch of rain this month in two brief downpours pretty early on, and the current system has yet to drop any IMBY, despite models daily showing .50-1.00" the last few days.  While I would like to see some rain for newly planted trees/shrubs that I'm watering daily now, who needs 4-5 inches in the current pattern?  That would be too much for even a thirsty garden.
My total for yesterday was a measly 0.02". Total for the month is 2.50", so we could have used the 1.20" that was predicted yesterday but never showed up. If we could get another 2.50" by the end of the month, we'd bet sitting pretty.

Also note we were a bit below average in rain for May as well.

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #77 on: June 20, 2017, 05:28:52 AM »
give me my severe weather with tornadoes  anyday....

My point was everyone has their likes and dislikes.  To each his own.  I don't have a qualm with that--even Crockett liking his endless sun and heat  ;D.  Personally, that gets boring to me after a week of it like we've had in eastern TN.  I enjoy good weather, and don't care for endless rainy days, but if I didn't find bad weather somewhat interesting, I wouldn't be here. 

East TN can handle 2-3 inches of rain with only minor issues, considering the time of year and recent dryness in some areas.   Middle and west TN are a different story.  Some models show the corridor of heavy rain in west TN, others in Middle.  Some show east TN getting a lot of rain, others show around an inch.  One thing to keep in mind for east TN is the possibility of downsloping if the low tracks to our west. That would greatly reduce rain amounts here.

For areas needing a break in rain, a dry northwest flow follows the trough after the weekend, and a rain-free time ensues.


« Last Edit: June 20, 2017, 05:36:45 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #78 on: June 20, 2017, 08:05:08 AM »
I think much of the state will be dealing with flooding come Friday. Downsloping may help areas like TRI, but won't do much for those of us south of I-40 in east TN. This looks like a setup for significant valley flooding. Even though this thing will track closer to west TN, the heaviest rains will be falling well east of there. I'm guessing along the GA/AL border. The east facing slopes of the mountains will also get hammered. Reminds be a bit of the Labor Day storm from 4-5 years ago. We broke our 24 hour rainfall record just days after setting a record for the driest month ever.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #79 on: June 21, 2017, 07:42:17 AM »
I noticed that the GFS jumped to over 5" of rain at kcha last night, then dropped back to 3.3" this morning. Most of the additional rain was shown falling on Saturday and was presumably associated with the remains of Cindy. That's gone this AM.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline bugalou

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #80 on: June 21, 2017, 08:24:21 AM »
Current Day 3 outlook (time sensitive)

« Last Edit: June 21, 2017, 03:33:04 PM by bugalou »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #81 on: June 21, 2017, 12:28:55 PM »
Current run of the GFS keeps the stripe of heavy rain in northwest TN into KY.  It's a bit more generous with the rain in Eastern TN around TYS--dropping nearly 3" there.  Strangely, it has a "hole" of lower totals just south of OHX. 
« Last Edit: June 21, 2017, 12:37:25 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline harlequin

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #82 on: June 21, 2017, 02:01:19 PM »
My Dad is definitely unhappy about more rain down on the farm. They've had a difficult year with locally heavy rain. For example, one day in late May they received nearly 6" across the area and it didn't even rain at my house in Memphis.

I was in San Francisco this past weekend, and it got over 90 even in the city. While it's been seasonably warm and quite muggy here, I was still hoping for a reprieve.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #83 on: June 21, 2017, 03:32:36 PM »
Most of Memphis Metro and northeastward now now in a moderate risk for excessive rain in the day 3 outlook (see my above post)

Post Merge: June 21, 2017, 03:36:49 PM
My Dad is definitely unhappy about more rain down on the farm. They've had a difficult year with locally heavy rain. For example, one day in late May they received nearly 6" across the area and it didn't even rain at my house in Memphis.

I was in San Francisco this past weekend, and it got over 90 even in the city. While it's been seasonably warm and quite muggy here, I was still hoping for a reprieve.

The delta is interesting during periods of excessive rain.  All that flat farm land become lakes with roads intersecting them.  It can fell more like  driving on a long bridge than a road during the really wet times.

Also you picked a bad time to head west!   ::blowtorch::
« Last Edit: June 21, 2017, 04:16:07 PM by bugalou »

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #84 on: June 21, 2017, 04:04:18 PM »
Man it would awesome to have an arctic air mass locked in with this.  ::rofl::

Offline bugalou

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #85 on: June 21, 2017, 04:20:01 PM »
Man it would awesome to have an arctic air mass locked in with this.  ::rofl::

I kind of lived this with Sandy.  Some parts of West Virginia in the cold sector got like 2' of snow  ::snowman::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #86 on: June 21, 2017, 05:28:57 PM »
Here's hoping we don't have a system like this over us on this date two months from now.  I hope to  drive only an hour to see a once-in-a-lifetime event.  But if need be, I'll drive much further if it's cloudy here. 

Post Merge: June 21, 2017, 06:25:23 PM
2017 is full of rarities.  Here is one for June happening next week--

Quote
Tuesday:   Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2017, 06:25:23 PM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #87 on: June 21, 2017, 07:30:01 PM »
Thought I would share some insider info from my Uncle's friend whom is a TVA retiree. TVA is preparing to open all of their spillways in east/middle TN. Apparently some of their private forecasters are expecting the system to stall out right over TN.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #88 on: June 21, 2017, 08:31:00 PM »
Man it would awesome to have an arctic air mass locked in with this.  ::rofl::
dont know why... because good chance it just would be suppressed... :)
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Crockett

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #89 on: June 21, 2017, 08:36:25 PM »
Man it would awesome to have an arctic air mass locked in with this.  ::rofl::

With all the Gulf moisture streaming in? WAA for the win.  ;D

 

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