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Author Topic: Summer 2017  (Read 100193 times)

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Offline joemomma

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #75 on: June 19, 2017, 12:20:20 PM »
It's def been wet over our way....my pepper plants are not loving it.

Offline Curt

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #76 on: June 19, 2017, 01:28:59 PM »
12z Euro is cranking out 5-10 inch rain amounts from memphis eastward- especially SW TN and North MS with the tropical system this weekend. Behind it is dry cooler air and temps in the 50's at night for several days.

Someone is gonna get flooding this weekend.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #77 on: June 19, 2017, 01:52:27 PM »
These will  be the maps to keep an eye on this week:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml

Offline bigdog660

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #78 on: June 19, 2017, 02:23:42 PM »
I think no one at this point wants 4 to 5 inches of rain, especially within a couple of days.

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #79 on: June 19, 2017, 04:14:05 PM »
I think no one at this point wants 4 to 5 inches of rain, especially within a couple of days.

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Exactly.  Over my way, I've only had an inch of rain this month in two brief downpours pretty early on, and the current system has yet to drop any IMBY, despite models daily showing .50-1.00" the last few days.  While I would like to see some rain for newly planted trees/shrubs that I'm watering daily now, who needs 4-5 inches in the current pattern?  That would be too much for even a thirsty garden. 
« Last Edit: June 19, 2017, 04:31:16 PM by JayCee »
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Offline Curt

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #80 on: June 19, 2017, 04:29:04 PM »


GEFS 12z ensemble members

Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #81 on: June 19, 2017, 04:43:14 PM »


GEFS 12z ensemble members

One thing to note is that with weak tropical storms the heavy precipitation area can be displaced well east and north from where the actual storm center travels.

Post Merge: June 19, 2017, 06:22:00 PM

I can't imagine anyone being thrilled by this weather pattern.

I can't imagine anyone enjoying destructive severe storms or tornadoes, but there are those who do, and many unabashedly show their excitement each severe weather season on this forum.  Others show up in winter and go crazy over a heavy snow storm in the forecast.  Heavy rain, drought, tornadoes, severe storms, heavy snow, ice storms, extreme cold/heat--all of it brings hardship to human beings in one way or another.  It's weather, and we're just here to talk about it--nothing more. 
« Last Edit: June 19, 2017, 06:22:00 PM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #82 on: June 19, 2017, 07:07:33 PM »
One thing to note is that with weak tropical storms the heavy precipitation area can be displaced well east and north from where the actual storm center travels.

Post Merge: June 19, 2017, 06:22:00 PM
I can't imagine anyone enjoying destructive severe storms or tornadoes, but there are those who do, and many unabashedly show their excitement each severe weather season on this forum.  Others show up in winter and go crazy over a heavy snow storm in the forecast.  Heavy rain, drought, tornadoes, severe storms, heavy snow, ice storms, extreme cold/heat--all of it brings hardship to human beings in one way or another.  It's weather, and we're just here to talk about it--nothing more.
give me my severe weather with tornadoes  anyday....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Crockett

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #83 on: June 19, 2017, 07:56:43 PM »
One thing to note is that with weak tropical storms the heavy precipitation area can be displaced well east and north from where the actual storm center travels.

Post Merge: June 19, 2017, 06:22:00 PM
I can't imagine anyone enjoying destructive severe storms or tornadoes, but there are those who do, and many unabashedly show their excitement each severe weather season on this forum.  Others show up in winter and go crazy over a heavy snow storm in the forecast.  Heavy rain, drought, tornadoes, severe storms, heavy snow, ice storms, extreme cold/heat--all of it brings hardship to human beings in one way or another.  It's weather, and we're just here to talk about it--nothing more.

In fairness, I believe those who root for severe weather are weird, too.

Offline bigdog660

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #84 on: June 20, 2017, 12:12:30 AM »
Exactly.  Over my way, I've only had an inch of rain this month in two brief downpours pretty early on, and the current system has yet to drop any IMBY, despite models daily showing .50-1.00" the last few days.  While I would like to see some rain for newly planted trees/shrubs that I'm watering daily now, who needs 4-5 inches in the current pattern?  That would be too much for even a thirsty garden.
My total for yesterday was a measly 0.02". Total for the month is 2.50", so we could have used the 1.20" that was predicted yesterday but never showed up. If we could get another 2.50" by the end of the month, we'd bet sitting pretty.

Also note we were a bit below average in rain for May as well.

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #85 on: June 20, 2017, 05:28:52 AM »
give me my severe weather with tornadoes  anyday....

My point was everyone has their likes and dislikes.  To each his own.  I don't have a qualm with that--even Crockett liking his endless sun and heat  ;D.  Personally, that gets boring to me after a week of it like we've had in eastern TN.  I enjoy good weather, and don't care for endless rainy days, but if I didn't find bad weather somewhat interesting, I wouldn't be here. 

East TN can handle 2-3 inches of rain with only minor issues, considering the time of year and recent dryness in some areas.   Middle and west TN are a different story.  Some models show the corridor of heavy rain in west TN, others in Middle.  Some show east TN getting a lot of rain, others show around an inch.  One thing to keep in mind for east TN is the possibility of downsloping if the low tracks to our west. That would greatly reduce rain amounts here.

For areas needing a break in rain, a dry northwest flow follows the trough after the weekend, and a rain-free time ensues.


« Last Edit: June 20, 2017, 05:36:45 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #86 on: June 20, 2017, 08:05:08 AM »
I think much of the state will be dealing with flooding come Friday. Downsloping may help areas like TRI, but won't do much for those of us south of I-40 in east TN. This looks like a setup for significant valley flooding. Even though this thing will track closer to west TN, the heaviest rains will be falling well east of there. I'm guessing along the GA/AL border. The east facing slopes of the mountains will also get hammered. Reminds be a bit of the Labor Day storm from 4-5 years ago. We broke our 24 hour rainfall record just days after setting a record for the driest month ever.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline skillsweather

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #87 on: June 20, 2017, 04:17:14 PM »
Quote
Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
335 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...Remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy to Bring Copious Rain to
Middle Tennessee...

Existing Conditions...

Middle Tennessee is in good shape regarding rainfall so far this
year. In fact, no one in the mid-state is dealing with any drought
conditions. Annual rainfall totals at our climatological sites are
all near or above normal rainfall values since January 1. This
means the ground in Middle Tennessee is quite capable of absorbing
a decent amount of rainfall without experiencing flash flooding.

Streamflows...

Currently, all rivers and streams are flowing at normal levels due
to recent rains.

Outlook...

Rainfall from approaching Tropical Storm Cindy is expected to
begin affecting Middle Tennessee by Thursday morning. Between
Thursday and Saturday, average rainfall amounts may reach 3 to 4
inches. This is an acceptable amount of rainfall when spread over
3 days time. However, if anyone experiences training of storms or
any other prolonged period of rain, higher rainfall totals may
occur. This would likely result in localized flash flooding.

Of greater concern will be the runoff from the expected rains at
the end of the week. Streams and rivers in Middle Tennessee will
likely experience rises that could throw several spots into at
least Action Stage by Sunday or Monday.

Please monitor the Hazardous Weather Outlook as well as other
products issued by the National Weather Service in Nashville over
the next couple of days to remain aware of any flood potential.
867-5309

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #88 on: June 21, 2017, 07:42:17 AM »
I noticed that the GFS jumped to over 5" of rain at kcha last night, then dropped back to 3.3" this morning. Most of the additional rain was shown falling on Saturday and was presumably associated with the remains of Cindy. That's gone this AM.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline bugalou

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Re: Summer 2017
« Reply #89 on: June 21, 2017, 08:24:21 AM »
Current Day 3 outlook (time sensitive)

« Last Edit: June 21, 2017, 03:33:04 PM by bugalou »

 

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