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Author Topic: Memphis Tornado Risk - 8PM CT Thu Feb 16  (Read 2752 times)

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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Memphis Tornado Risk - 8PM CT Thu Feb 16
« on: February 16, 2006, 08:24:41 PM »
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...EXTREME NWRN MS...MO BOOTHEEL AND
   WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 170135Z - 170300Z
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
   STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS PASSING N INTO THE OH VLY AND GRTLKS
   EARLY THIS EVENING.  PRIMARY LLJ AXIS IS TRANSLATING NWD OUT OF THE
   MID-SOUTH IN TANDEM...WITH A DECREASE IN OVERALL MASS CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
   
   TSTMS THAT INITIATED UPSTREAM EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE BEEN STRONGEST
   ACROSS NERN AR NWD...WHERE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONGER ASCENT.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE BEST
   CHANCE TO MAINTAIN CHARACTER INTO WRN TN THROUGH MID-EVENING.
   MEMPHIS VWP STILL SHOWS A STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL PROFILE AND A
   TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.  
   
   FARTHER SW...STORMS ARE STRUGGLING AGAINST HIGHER CINH AND LESS MASS
   CONVERGENCE.  IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREATS ARE DECREASING ACROSS AT
   LEAST ACROSS SRN AR.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/17/2006
Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

 

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