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Author Topic: Severe Risks 4/26-30  (Read 14902 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Severe Risks 4/26-30
« on: April 26, 2017, 07:15:48 AM »
Technically, a couple of different systems coming through between now and Sunday. But, they're close enough together with subsequent risk days in different areas to have one thread for now.

First up, today, S AR and N LA look like the prime target with a MDT risk and an ENH risk to the southwest corner of TN.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/pwo_201704261149.html
« Last Edit: April 26, 2017, 07:17:32 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2017, 08:38:15 AM »
Memphis is right on the line of the SPC 10% TOR hatched area now. Carefully watching the visible satellite images as the day progresses to see how long the clearing stays around. West Tennessee should defiantly keep a close eye on things as the day progresses.

Online BRUCE

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2017, 08:38:25 AM »
Spc latest updates 30 min ago. Nudged the enhanced risk further East tad   
Come on severe wx season...

Online Curt

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2017, 08:49:26 AM »
By the way- Friday already has an enhanced (day 3) for much of west TN. Going to be an active 5 days. Rainfall still looks in the 4-8 inch range.

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2017, 08:50:08 AM »
So much for golf this weekend.......

Offline Vols1

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2017, 08:56:25 AM »
I still think Friday could end up being a surprise mini outbreak for Nashville and west.

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2017, 10:01:38 AM »
MCD for potential tornado watch for east Arkansas.

Online Curt

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2017, 10:07:31 AM »
MCD for potential tornado watch for east Arkansas.

It's not even noon and that line is closing in on Little Rock. This timing looks much faster than I originally thought

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #8 on: April 26, 2017, 10:17:36 AM »
It's not even noon and that line is closing in on Little Rock. This timing looks much faster than I originally thought

HRRR has an interesting view of this system "tilting" more than moving if that makes sense. Will be interesting to see how this plays out

Online Curt

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #9 on: April 26, 2017, 10:30:45 AM »
HRRR has an interesting view of this system "tilting" more than moving if that makes sense. Will be interesting to see how this plays out

Still has passage at the river at 6-7pm as a QLCS

Online BRUCE

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2017, 10:48:47 AM »
Fully expect spc  have most West tn I. Enhanced zone. Next update after one... looking for latest data short range. ... I'm work.  Tough keeping up
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #11 on: April 26, 2017, 10:49:52 AM »
There is enough of an instability/wind shear combo for damaging winds swaths, hail, and some tornado QLCS type spinups across Arkansas and adjacent areas of other states including TN. There some pretty good low-level shear depicted on the HRRR in E/SE Arkansas and over into adjacent parts of SW TN/W MS even though the instability isn't as great as areas to the south and southwest, so tornadic spinups will definitely need to be watched if the line can maintain itself.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #12 on: April 26, 2017, 11:43:22 AM »
Currently 79/68 here.  ::wow::

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2017, 12:04:33 PM »
16z sounding from Little Rock

Online Curt

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Re: Severe Risks 4/26-30
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2017, 12:31:36 PM »
Starting to see severe on the south side of the line in SW Arkansas. Little Rock itself **may** be in the clear in an hour or so unless it gets enhanced right on top of them.

 

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