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Author Topic: April 5th Severe Weather Threat  (Read 26995 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #135 on: April 05, 2017, 05:56:46 PM »
DP is 51 in Nashville. I guess the dry line has passed.


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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #136 on: April 05, 2017, 06:13:05 PM »
I'm not going to be the one to say the word, but this did not at all live up to the hype

Offline justinmundie

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #137 on: April 05, 2017, 06:14:26 PM »
I'm not going to be the one to say the word, but this did not at all live up to the hype

#bust

Most definitely. SPC is having a bad year.
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #138 on: April 05, 2017, 06:32:12 PM »
#bust

Most definitely. SPC is having a bad year.
without a doubt.... ::)
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #139 on: April 05, 2017, 06:33:27 PM »
We can always shift gears back to Winter and discuss the snow situation.   ;D

Quote
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow, which is in effect from 8 AM Thursday
to 8 AM EDT Friday.

* EVENT...Rain will change to snow across the higher elevations
  Thursday. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected for
  elevations at or above 4000 feet, and 1 to 3 inches for
  elevations between 2500 and 4000 feet.

  The snow and windy conditions will produce some blowing and
  drifting. Occasional white-out conditions are possible.

* TIMING...Rain showers changing to snow showers Thursday morning
  continuing through early Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Snow and ice covered roadways are expected across the
  highest terrain. The wind and snow combined may produce white-
  out conditions at times. Some blowing and drifting are also
  expected. Anyone planning on venturing out across the higher
  terrain need to be prepared for wintry conditions. Hazardous
  conditions are likely.

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #140 on: April 05, 2017, 06:33:40 PM »
For some reason, I never really felt it with this one anyway.


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Offline harlequin

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #141 on: April 05, 2017, 06:36:43 PM »
All 3 High "busts" (if today ends up being one) happened at relatively low lines of latitude.

And I guess January 23 may not be a bust. Significant EF3 killed 5 and the outbreak sequence killed 20, but the High did underperform.

Offline wfrogge

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #142 on: April 05, 2017, 06:45:58 PM »
I don't get all this talk about "busts".  The potential was there for tornadoes to rake across the area so the high was warranted.

Offline WXHD

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #143 on: April 05, 2017, 06:51:12 PM »
I don't get all this talk about "busts".  The potential was there for tornadoes to rake across the area so the high was warranted.

Agreed.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline JayCee

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #144 on: April 05, 2017, 07:16:59 PM »
On paper, this looks like the most credible tornado/hail threat Chattanooga has had in quite a while.

Used this quote to voice a thought.  As he said, everything did look credible on paper for a significant outbreak of severe weather.   If I worked at the SPC, I would feel negligent if I didn't issue the proper outlooks and watches.  If it doesn't happen, then perhaps we don't yet know every equation and factor that causes one system to produce an outbreak, while another "busts." 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline SuperCell

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #145 on: April 05, 2017, 07:19:51 PM »
As far as I am concerned *BUST* = good.
Formerly known as VandyMachine...Up on the Highland Rim, where the weather is always more interesting!

Offline justinmundie

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #146 on: April 05, 2017, 07:45:07 PM »
I don't get all this talk about "busts".  The potential was there for tornadoes to rake across the area so the high was warranted.

Verification is important. If you just always warn of potential, and then what happens is decidedly not as severe, the public stops paying attention. We're not just saying there's a potential for severe storms, we're giving probabilities and those probabilities are without a doubt, super incorrect.

Fact of the matter is, modeling crapped the bed again. As it has repeatedly recently. It seems like maybe some additional conservatism is in order. If you don't go high risk with a hatched area, and then the extreme storms start happening, it's a lot easier to start warning than it is to stop the hype train.
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline JayCee

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #147 on: April 05, 2017, 07:54:48 PM »
Lightning visible to the west now as the line of potent storms approach.  Only warned storm is in the far southern valley for now.  Nevertheless, the storms approaching Knoxville look like they pack a punch. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline wfrogge

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #148 on: April 05, 2017, 08:10:45 PM »
Verification is important. If you just always warn of potential, and then what happens is decidedly not as severe, the public stops paying attention. We're not just saying there's a potential for severe storms, we're giving probabilities and those probabilities are without a doubt, super incorrect.

Fact of the matter is, modeling crapped the bed again. As it has repeatedly recently. It seems like maybe some additional conservatism is in order. If you don't go high risk with a hatched area, and then the extreme storms start happening, it's a lot easier to start warning than it is to stop the hype train.

The probabilities were correct given the data we had with 24 hours to go.  If you know different there is a job at the SPC with your name on it :)

Offline WXHD

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #149 on: April 05, 2017, 08:11:09 PM »
Verification is important. If you just always warn of potential, and then what happens is decidedly not as severe, the public stops paying attention. We're not just saying there's a potential for severe storms, we're giving probabilities and those probabilities are without a doubt, super incorrect.

Fact of the matter is, modeling crapped the bed again. As it has repeatedly recently. It seems like maybe some additional conservatism is in order. If you don't go high risk with a hatched area, and then the extreme storms start happening, it's a lot easier to start warning than it is to stop the hype train.

I have to respectfully disagree.

I think you and I are privy to the nuances of forecasting, model hugging and wish-casting that eludes the vast majority of people. For you and I and most everyone else on this forum, weather is at the least a hobby and likely a passion.

Forecasters did not tell us that there was a 100% chance of tornadoes happening. The forecast and maps showed a a smaller chance of such horror happening. To that end, the forecast was nearly perfect. How individuals chose to interpret that is no fault of the people responsible for giving their best effort to alert the public to the potential for significant weather. We are very fortunate that nothing extreme panned out. However, you and I were both watching the models, radar and reports until the last moment. We both know that had things positioned themselves just a few miles in a south west direction things could have brought a very different outcome. Everyone I know was aware of the weather and the potential for tornadoes. To that end, I feel like the forecasters did their job exceptionally.

I'm mobile so there's likely some errors, sentiment remains. As does my respect for you and your ability to read and interpret models Justin.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

 

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