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Author Topic: April 5th Severe Weather Threat  (Read 25111 times)

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Offline SuperCell

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #105 on: April 05, 2017, 12:47:10 PM »
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=35.59&lon=-87.37&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&map=county&info=vis&numframes=7&quality=100&type=Animation

Look at the cloud streaks south and west of Nashville. I think I remember those were talked about before the April 27, 2011 event started.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2017, 12:49:05 PM by SuperCell »
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Offline JayCee

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #106 on: April 05, 2017, 12:47:40 PM »
The cell approaching Columbia SC looks really bad. Huge hook echo and a 75 dbz hail core.

Been watching that one.  Sister lives in Irmo, just to the north of Columbia.  Hoping it passes south of her. 

Cloud canopy has all but disappeared here.  Won't have trouble getting some instability going now. . .
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Offline WXHD

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #107 on: April 05, 2017, 12:55:45 PM »
The Masters begin tomorrow in Augusta. I wonder what the course will look like by then. You don't just set it all up in the morning.
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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #108 on: April 05, 2017, 12:58:07 PM »
Chat room link?

Offline NismoWx

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #109 on: April 05, 2017, 01:02:05 PM »
OHX launched a balloon a few minutes ago...

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #110 on: April 05, 2017, 01:07:22 PM »

Offline Vols1

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #111 on: April 05, 2017, 01:11:24 PM »
How long till the balloon data comes in

Offline collinsk

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #112 on: April 05, 2017, 01:12:14 PM »
What is it looking like for the Chattanooga area? Development? Timing?

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #113 on: April 05, 2017, 01:19:54 PM »
I'm skeptical of the tornado threat from I-40 north unless trends rapdily change in the next 1-3 hours. There seems to be too much mixing going on and I'm not so sure the 60F dewpoints will even reach into KY. I do think N AL and S/SE TN have a shot at a better tornado threat due to better moisture and possible boundary interaction. We have instability developing and steep lapse rates so hail is going to be a potentially big threat.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #114 on: April 05, 2017, 01:20:41 PM »
This was in discussion about forthcoming watch.
" Tornadoes are expected, and significant tornadoes
   will be possible -- especially as supercells mature "

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #115 on: April 05, 2017, 01:26:00 PM »
Starting to see some returns on radar in western Middle TN- could be the beginnings of initialization.


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Offline Coach B

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #116 on: April 05, 2017, 01:27:48 PM »
Watch coming... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0442.html

Quote
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central KY...middle
   TN...northern/central AL...extreme northwest GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

   Valid 051802Z - 052030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for significantly severe storms capable of
   producing very large hail and tornadoes, along with damaging winds,
   is expected to increase around and after 19Z. The issuance of a
   Tornado Watch is expected soon.

19Z is 2:00 CDT
« Last Edit: April 05, 2017, 01:29:54 PM by Coach B »

Offline NismoWx

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #117 on: April 05, 2017, 01:37:19 PM »
Starting to see some returns on radar in western Middle TN- could be the beginnings of initialization.


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West of 65, to boot. I'd say the next 30-45min are going to be telling.

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Offline NismoWx

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #118 on: April 05, 2017, 01:40:47 PM »
How long till the balloon data comes in
Should be any time now.

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Offline dwagner88

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #119 on: April 05, 2017, 01:40:59 PM »
What is it looking like for the Chattanooga area? Development? Timing?

On paper, this looks like the most credible tornado/hail threat Chattanooga has had in quite a while. As always, exact storm tracks are impossible to predict accurately. As far as timing, I would expect convection to start firing over the western TN valley any time now and rapidly strengthen as it moves east of I-65. I think the peak for us should be right around 6-9 PM.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

 

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