0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
Verification is important. If you just always warn of potential, and then what happens is decidedly not as severe, the public stops paying attention. We're not just saying there's a potential for severe storms, we're giving probabilities and those probabilities are without a doubt, super incorrect.Fact of the matter is, modeling crapped the bed again. As it has repeatedly recently. It seems like maybe some additional conservatism is in order. If you don't go high risk with a hatched area, and then the extreme storms start happening, it's a lot easier to start warning than it is to stop the hype train.
Lightning visible to the west now as the line of potent storms approach. Only warned storm is in the far southern valley for now. Nevertheless, the storms approaching Knoxville look like they pack a punch.
without a doubt....
Eh, I'll respectively disagree with the bolded. It's hard to get people's attention at the last minute when they have already made prior plans/etc. since they didn't expect a high magnitude event. They are basically equally tricky situations.A multitude of things today, primarily as a result of the southern stream vort max that passed through the warm sector this morning, prevented a larger scale event from a seemingly favorable synoptic setup. Without going too far into detail, the lack of stronger low level flow through much of the afternoon was the #1 cause of the underperformance. For starters, it meant that the cold pool laid out by the morning storms basically saw no modification over E AL/GA.This weak flow was a result of the aforementioned vort max leading to the primary low level jet axis being shifted into GA/etc. (in response to localized pressure falls). Here, bulk shear was comparatively weaker, the column was more saturated leading to HP/outflow-dominant storms and surface winds grew increasingly veered with time. Moisture return further north was hampered by the lack of stronger low level flow, as was hodograph curvature (lack of turning between 850 and 500 mb was also an issue further south into AL). Once the storms in E AL and TN reached the backed low level flow near the boundary, they had very little residence time before reaching stable air.Post Merge: April 05, 2017, 09:41:23 PMBruce, if half of the events you called for a week out verified, most of this forum would probably be in the ground with engraved blocks of granite sitting atop them.
At the risk of beating a dead horse about the current risk scale... people, in general, don't really understand it."Enhanced" sounds worse than "moderate." If I didn't know better, I would think the same.I heard someone on the radio yesterday actually confuse the two. The news person said something about an "enhanced risk" around Chattanooga, but "moderate" everywhere else. I think a numeric "category" scale might actually make more sense... most people seem to understand the 1-5 scale (in terms of severity) with regard to tornadoes and hurricanes. Why not do something similar for severe risks?
Maybe I'm a bit hyperbolic... but I spent most of my evening trying to explain to people who were critiquing the weather service and local mets how difficult forecasting is, which is frustrating. But it's hard to justify when you can't even lean on the probabilities being even close to right. I also haven't seen anyone mention how models were essentially useless yesterday. I realize I'm alone, but even when we have an enhanced risk, people are paying attention. I feel like we're going to have a much greater problem in the future when people start ignoring moderate and high risk events, and that's certainly going to happen the more often those events turn into nothingburgers.
One thing I'm learning from severe weather events is how much the warm front or morning convection plays a huge role in making or breaking the event. I know in April 2011, the morning MCS played a huge role in tipping the event into epic proportions. However, the same MCS or convection event yesterday IMO played a role to lessen the event. In north GA, it actually created a huge cool pool for much the Atlanta metro north, thus instability was almost zero by the time the event could have gone gangbusters. This was WELL forecast 24 hours in advance by CAPE modeling on the short term NAM and HRR- and most offices did not account or at least believe this in those areas. I'm not sure if the rest of the event was lessened overall by its impact of lack of recovery time for instability as a whole over the region or lack of recovery time for moisture- who knows. It appears to the green person that I am- that these pre event thunderstorm clusters might be the key to the overall puzzle.