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Author Topic: April 5th Severe Weather Threat  (Read 16899 times)

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Offline StormNine

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April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« on: April 02, 2017, 08:15:54 AM »
We are watching for a strong system for Wednesday. At this time the greatest threat is probably just to our south, but there is a highlighted threat for much of TN as well. 

Online BRUCE

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2017, 08:23:58 AM »
talking bout a scary afd sort of... BMX birmingham al... saying if euro is face value... be strong to viloent torndaoes for them late wed...  guess this may be shaping up for another big daddy miss for midsouth... but its going to be fun still watching this play out to how much tennessee gets invovled in ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JTM1988

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2017, 06:45:51 AM »
Latest GFS and NAM makes it seem like it could get interesting around BNA early afternoon Wednesday. Cape shoots up with development to the west and plenty of shear.


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Offline Vols1

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2017, 07:54:02 AM »
Hmm that appears to be a line of possible super cells to me 😳

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2017, 01:45:36 PM »
Latest GFS and NAM makes it seem like it could get interesting around BNA early afternoon Wednesday. Cape shoots up with development to the west and plenty of shear.



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That output looks very 3/28/2009 ish. The setup on Wednesday has some 3/28/2009 similarities and even a little bit of last Thursday.

1) The potential for Gulf Coast/Deep South storm action which could prevent inflow of sufficient moisture return.

2) The potential for a narrow corridor of instability and relatively sufficient moisture return into KY/TN.

The question then remains, will there be enough clearing to our south to allow for a brief period of more unstable air to advance into our area. If there is then hail (locally quite large), damaging winds, and even tornadoes are all in the cards with a situation similar to that NAM output. If it does not then it is a repeat of last Thursday.

Offline JTM1988

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2017, 05:41:53 PM »
Seems like there is a gradual shift west in the models and a POTENTIAL threat Wednesday afternoon with a lot of uncertainty. However it seems like the ceiling on the event could be very high as well which leads to a forecasting nightmare I assume. Just looking at these helicity tracks we are too close to comfort to a substantial event. I do not envy the forecasters after seeing model trends today.


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Offline JTM1988

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #6 on: April 03, 2017, 05:43:35 PM »
Forgot to include the graphic


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Online BRUCE

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #7 on: April 03, 2017, 06:48:39 PM »
Seems like there is a gradual shift west in the models and a POTENTIAL threat Wednesday afternoon with a lot of uncertainty. However it seems like the ceiling on the event could be very high as well which leads to a forecasting nightmare I assume. Just looking at these helicity tracks we are too close to comfort to a substantial event. I do not envy the forecasters after seeing model trends today.


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agree 100 percent... never understood the SPC putting the risk so far east begin with... got slp nw of us and drops in pressure as it moves ne of us... look for SPC to make some adjustments ... SPC has had a bad start to this year to be honest with you... :)
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Crockett

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #8 on: April 03, 2017, 06:56:52 PM »
agree 100 percent... never understood the SPC putting the risk so far east begin with... got slp nw of us and drops in pressure as it moves ne of us... look for SPC to make some adjustments ... SPC has had a bad start to this year to be honest with you... :)

It's very simple, actually. SPC doesn't have the luxury of wish-casting.

Online BRUCE

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #9 on: April 03, 2017, 06:59:04 PM »
It's very simple, actually. SPC doesn't have the luxury of wish-casting.
think they actually go over board on some things...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JTM1988

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #10 on: April 03, 2017, 07:27:12 PM »
It's very simple, actually. SPC doesn't have the luxury of wish-casting.

I'll give them some credit. By the time they released the day 3 all of the cape values at the time of storm initiation were all plateau and east on most models. The trend west really ramped up with 6z and on which would have impacted another day 3. Based on what they knew at the time it was a pretty good call. I'm VERY interested in the next day two.


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Offline StormNine

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #11 on: April 03, 2017, 09:29:53 PM »
Several times the Day 3 by the SPC looks quite a bit different than the eventual Day 1. A lot especially on the mesoscale can change between that Day 3 outlook and the day in question. 11/15/2005 and 12/23/2015 were originally 15% slight risk days on the Day 3 outlook and we have also had some Day 3 MDT risk busts as well. The SPC deserves some leadway because in most cases there is still uncertainty or unknowns at the time when they release the Day 3 outlook.

Offline JTM1988

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #12 on: April 03, 2017, 09:55:24 PM »
Don't think the 0z run of the nam trended to less ominous solution from southern IL to northern Bama


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Offline justinmundie

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #13 on: April 04, 2017, 06:26:23 AM »
SPC update


Online Eric

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Re: April 5th Severe Weather Threat
« Reply #14 on: April 04, 2017, 07:52:49 AM »
This one has legs, boys and girls.  Tremendous amount of moisture feeding into this thing with mid 60 Tds as far north as the Ohio River.  Pockets of 70F Tds across the MDT risk.  Last time I remember seeing Tds that high across the Deep South prior to a severe event was 4/27.  LCLs will be very low with only a small dew point depression. 

6z NAM skew for BNA:



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