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Author Topic: End of March Severe Risks  (Read 32050 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #165 on: March 30, 2017, 01:30:22 PM »
Winds have picked up considerably here in the last hour or so.

Offline Eric

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #166 on: March 30, 2017, 01:56:20 PM »
Exactly this. There's still an attendant threat, mainly along the front just because of the forcing with it and high winds aloft that can be mixed down fairly easily with any sustained updraft. The latter shows by just how gusty it is today, right on the cusp of advisory criteria.

In that vein, OHX issued a wind advisory last night but cancelled it this morning. 

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Offline Curt

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #167 on: March 30, 2017, 02:18:29 PM »
should be a severe with the storm in Shelby co right now- out my office window

Post Merge: March 30, 2017, 02:25:02 PM
12z GFS has a pretty cool stable pattern for quite some time now, even has low to mid 30's for lows in a week. Not gonna find too much severe for us this far north in that pattern.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2017, 02:25:02 PM by Curt, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline mempho

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #168 on: March 30, 2017, 02:49:46 PM »
should be a severe with the storm in Shelby co right now- out my office window

Post Merge: March 30, 2017, 02:25:02 PM
12z GFS has a pretty cool stable pattern for quite some time now, even has low to mid 30's for lows in a week. Not gonna find too much severe for us this far north in that pattern.
Count me as happy about that!

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Volduff64

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #169 on: March 30, 2017, 04:27:53 PM »
I would argue that middle Tennessee isn't under watch because they are debating between thunderstorm or tornado. I can't imagine even with lower threat not being put under one or the other.

Offline justinmundie

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #170 on: March 30, 2017, 04:46:56 PM »
I would argue that middle Tennessee isn't under watch because they are debating between thunderstorm or tornado. I can't imagine even with lower threat not being put under one or the other.

Mesoscale discussions come out prior to watch issuance. They aren't even considering a watch at this point.
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Offline Clay

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #171 on: March 30, 2017, 05:09:40 PM »
PW's don't even crack 1" in Mid TN tonight, Dew point @ BNA down to 53F at the 5PM update. Cloud deck has been holding all day. You can just walk outside and tell the feel isn't there.

Offline Matthew

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #172 on: March 30, 2017, 05:31:11 PM »
This storm system flopped worse than the Sat. system.  Kinda like our winter storm chances.  Lol.

Offline JayCee

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #173 on: March 30, 2017, 05:42:13 PM »
should be a severe with the storm in Shelby co right now- out my office window

Post Merge: March 30, 2017, 02:25:02 PM
12z GFS has a pretty cool stable pattern for quite some time now, even has low to mid 30's for lows in a week. Not gonna find too much severe for us this far north in that pattern.

I can't say I hate that either.  Most blooming trees can easily survive 30's, and we'll have 80's & 90's soon enough. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #174 on: March 30, 2017, 07:20:49 PM »
Just as well we didn't create a separate thread for each system this week. Just a whole lot of meh.  At least most are getting some decent rainfall.


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Offline NashRugger

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #175 on: March 30, 2017, 08:04:59 PM »
Did have some minor damage in the Boro from that blast of a storm in the last hour

Offline StormNine

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #176 on: March 30, 2017, 08:45:26 PM »
I don't think that cluster/fake line of storms was supposed to stall or nearly stall over Western Middle TN.

Offline harlequin

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #177 on: March 30, 2017, 11:18:23 PM »
As a forecast "bust", this was a significant one. Total MDT busts happen every couple of years it seems. Memphis had two rounds of severe weather that failed to materialize as forecast, which is pretty rare. That said, both the SPC and local NWS offices backed off at least 12 hours prior to the event, which is why I but bust in quotes. QPF also busted badly. My neighborhood had a trace, but the office had around an inch.

Offline Storm Central

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #178 on: March 31, 2017, 10:34:58 AM »
Cleveland TN at 8PM as a strong storm pulsed with a brief hail core, noted shelf cloud during the spc slight risk bust March 30, 2017.


Offline wfrogge

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Re: End of March Severe Risks
« Reply #179 on: April 02, 2017, 08:20:13 AM »
Its was a bust if you took the 2 day MDT as fact. The SPC downgraded as time got closer and it became apparent the crapvection at the gulf would tamper down the threat. Bunch of whining about nothing  :)

 

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