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Author Topic: March 11th-12th Winter Weather Threat  (Read 17425 times)

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Offline snowdog

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Re: March 11th-12th Winter Weather Threat
« Reply #435 on: April 04, 2017, 02:08:44 PM »
Blizzard conditons possible above 5000ft in the smokies Thursday. Going to touch more base on this tomorrow but this one may be worth making the trip to. The Park is going to be unreal above 4500ft-5000ft.

You thinking about going up to Leconte?

Offline JayCee

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Re: March 11th-12th Winter Weather Threat
« Reply #436 on: April 04, 2017, 03:02:53 PM »
Per MRX:

Quote
The latest model data shows good snow potential on Thursday into
Thursday night across the higher elevations
. Both the NAM and GFS
show moisture extending up to -15 deg C with the freezing level
starting out around 5500 feet at 09Z Thursday. Freezing level drops
through the day and the sounding profiles remain moist. Stout NW
flow will also enhance snow across the higher elevations due to
orographic lift. By 18z Thursday the snow/rain line should be down
around 3500 feet and by 00z down around 3K feet. During the day we
do see CAPE values high enough to suggest possible snow banding in
the high terrain. Any area that gets under one of these bands could
pick up quick accumulations; which could lead to isolated higher
totals. The better moisture will begin to gradually taper off after
00z but the upslope snow machine should still be pretty healthy as
strong NW flow continues into the night. Expecting snow showers
across the higher elevations to last well into the night on Thursday
with some isolated areas of snow showers still across the higher
peaks into Friday morning/early afternoon. Lows overnight will be in
the lower to upper 30s. Some valley locations across Northeast TN
and SWVA could see a few hours of light snow early Friday morning
but will quickly switch back over to rain shortly after sunrise. Not
expecting any accumulation or travel issues across lower elevations.
All precip finally pulls out later Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday
will be quite chilly with upper 40s near 50 north to mid to upper
50s south.

Current thinking is that areas above 4000 feet will see between 3 to
6 inches of snowfall from early Thursday morning through Friday
morning. Areas between 3000 to 4000 feet will see 2 to 4 inches and
2500 feet to 3000 feet 1 to 3 inches.
Due to the snowfall still
being several periods out will send out an SPS to highlight for now.

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: March 11th-12th Winter Weather Threat
« Reply #437 on: April 04, 2017, 06:54:31 PM »
You thinking about going up to Leconte?

Yup, at least get to Alum Cave trailhead if I cannot get to the top of Newfound Gap. I would love to go Newfond Gap to Boulvard to Leconte.


 

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