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Author Topic: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1  (Read 15198 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Come on severe wx season...

Offline andyhb

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2017, 10:52:43 PM »
4 km ARW/NMMB (especially the former) rake N AR and S MO with supercells from about 23z to 04z (question being whether they're still surface based). This would be right in the wheelhouse of the mean parameter space max between the different models. Might be knocking on the door of W TN/KY later on if they maintain themselves.
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability™


Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #17 on: February 28, 2017, 05:27:19 AM »
Basically all of East Tennessee is already under a wind advisory for 7AM-Midnight EST on Wednesday.

Quote
... Wind Advisory in effect from 7 am EST /6 am CST/ Wednesday to
midnight EST /11 PM CST/ Wednesday night...

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 7 am EST /6 am CST/ Wednesday
to midnight EST /11 PM CST/ Wednesday night.

* Event... southerly winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing... 7 am to 10 PM on Wednesday.

* Impacts... these winds may down trees or tree limbs... as well as
  power lines. Loose outdoor objects should be secured. Motorists
  should be extra cautious to cross winds especially when driving
  in the higher elevations.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 26 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected or occurring. Winds this strong can
make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles.
Use extra caution.

Offline Bentoncostrmchs

Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2017, 11:15:14 AM »
Looks like Illinois is going to have their excitement today. Maybe the clouds can move out and give us something to chase.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #19 on: February 28, 2017, 12:08:04 PM »

Offline harlequin

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #20 on: February 28, 2017, 12:42:27 PM »
Quote
Open-warm-sector
   convection will likely evolve along a low-level jet through parts of
   the Ohio Valley tonight as additional moistening occurs. Effective
   SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 will support tornado potential with evolving
   supercell clusters. This includes the potential for nocturnal
   significant tornadoes, and tornado probabilities have been
   increased.

From latest Day 1.

Potentially a busy evening across the Lower Ohio Valley and potentially the Ozarks and northern Mid-South.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #21 on: February 28, 2017, 02:50:15 PM »
Tomorrow could be a rough day.  Per MRX this afternoon:

Quote
This surface trough will move across during the area with the
airmass becoming sufficiently unstable (MLCAPES of near 1000
J/Kg) so widespread thunderstorms anticipated. Due to increasing
low-level jet in response to upper jet dynamics, the 850mb winds
increase to 60kts+. The strong low-level jet combined with mid-
level drying will set the stage for widespread damaging wind
event. Derecho Composite Parameter values above 1 are likely based
off SPC Ensembles.

Enough speed shear to warrant a low chance of tornadoes as well
especially near any book-end vortices and/or notches. Marginal
severe hail is also possible.

The best time-frame for severe weather will be between Noon and 6
PM ET.

Besides the thunderstorms winds, strong low-level jet will produce
windy conditions tonight across the higher elevations and area-
wide for Wednesday.

At least most of the trees do not have their leaves yet, so that may help reduce some of the damage.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #22 on: February 28, 2017, 05:22:04 PM »
The first TOR is out. Over around Little Rock.

Post Merge: February 28, 2017, 05:27:42 PM
Latest HRRR is in line with forecast. Supercells look to track just to my north.



Post Merge: February 28, 2017, 05:59:01 PM
Wow at the storm north of Little Rock.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2017, 05:59:01 PM by Dyersburg Weather, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline WXHD

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #23 on: February 28, 2017, 05:59:51 PM »
Is there a solution for the looping radar on the home page?
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly – raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline harlequin

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #24 on: February 28, 2017, 06:13:04 PM »


Softball size hail reported w/ the supe in AR as well.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #25 on: February 28, 2017, 06:16:45 PM »


Softball size hail reported w/ the supe in AR as well.
fixing to post that...  saying tornado risk increasing this evening across west Tennessee later...

Post Merge: February 28, 2017, 06:51:45 PM
first fatality of the night... Ottawa, iliinois :'(

Post Merge: February 28, 2017, 06:57:36 PM
SPC will be updating very soon...
« Last Edit: February 28, 2017, 06:57:36 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline harlequin

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #26 on: February 28, 2017, 07:24:07 PM »
Quote
At 720 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over Bald Knob, or 9
miles east of Searcy, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #27 on: February 28, 2017, 08:06:43 PM »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline WXRocker

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #28 on: February 28, 2017, 08:07:49 PM »
Looks like I will be staying up tonight.

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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Severe Wx Risk 2/28-3/1
« Reply #29 on: February 28, 2017, 08:24:34 PM »
UT Chattanooga just cancelled all classes based on tomorrow's threat.

 

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