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Author Topic: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread  (Read 127903 times)

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Offline snowdog

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #15 on: February 12, 2017, 12:33:58 PM »
I thought the same.

I would wager that it was an erroneous reading. 

Offline JayCee

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #16 on: February 12, 2017, 01:18:33 PM »
77F here at 2:00 in the afternoon on February 12th.  Almost 80 in the middle of Winter.  Equally unbelievable as Oklahoma's temperature reading of 99.   This sets a new standard for the term winter "torch."  It used to mean temps in the 60's. 

I have all the windows open, and it actually feels hot out in the sun while I was out cleaning up the yard.  Crazy for this time of year.   
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline mempho

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2017, 01:27:17 PM »
I would wager that it was an erroneous reading.
There were many places on the 90s in Oklahoma yesterday.   I'm sure the temp will need validation,  but the high temps were hardly isolated.   The Magnum report was at an Oklahoma Mesonet site and was only a single degree higher than the nearby reporting stations in Altus. Crazy stuff.  Now,  to be fair,  there was probably a significant downsloping component. Here are some temps: 

Magnum  99
Altus AFB 98
Altus Regional Airport 98
Frederick 95
Elk City 95
El Reno  90
OKC  89
Norman 88

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« Last Edit: February 12, 2017, 01:33:28 PM by mempho »


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline mempho

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2017, 01:35:01 PM »
I would wager that it was an erroneous reading.
Maybe,  but look at all the nearby readings I just posted.   If it's an error,  it's unlikely that the Oklahoma state record high for February isn't at least 98.

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline BRUCE

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2017, 01:59:18 PM »
I would wager that it was an erroneous reading.
those reading were actually accurate and correct... very dry air in place...early start to summer it appears this year... ::hot::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mempho

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #20 on: February 12, 2017, 08:25:03 PM »
those reading were actually accurate and correct... very dry air in place...early start to summer it appears this year... ::hot::
So,  don't you find it odd that there's all this warmth in February and no severe weather to speak of?

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline BRUCE

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2017, 08:34:12 PM »
So,  don't you find it odd that there's all this warmth in February and no severe weather to speak of?

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had a friend to ask that same thing today...overall the flow has been to flat to produce much in way severe wx... course had nice little event along gulf coast week or so ago... but starting to like things down road tad bit... 20th beyond... pacific jet sub tropical jet modeled to really ramp up... euro starting to hint a possible event in later frames... something to keep eye on... as we start to see some buckling of the jet with the trough moving in from the sw...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mempho

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #22 on: February 12, 2017, 08:59:29 PM »
had a friend to ask that same thing today...overall the flow has been to flat to produce much in way severe wx... course had nice little event along gulf coast week or so ago... but starting to like things down road tad bit... 20th beyond... pacific jet sub tropical jet modeled to really ramp up... euro starting to hint a possible event in later frames... something to keep eye on... as we start to see some buckling of the jet with the trough moving in from the sw...
I can't recall ever seeing anything like this winter.   It's just odd.   

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Clay

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #23 on: February 12, 2017, 09:39:13 PM »
I can't recall ever seeing anything like this winter.   It's just odd.   

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This is the warmest start to meteorological winter at BNA in my 25 years. I'll add that 3 of the warmest winters during that period occurred during the last 5 years. 2010s are really bringing the torch.

« Last Edit: February 12, 2017, 10:19:36 PM by Clay »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #24 on: February 12, 2017, 11:40:17 PM »
good gracious the 0z gfs... fixing to get very active on stormy side of things... that sub tropical jet is insane on this run... I leave it at that for now ::coffee::

Post Merge: February 12, 2017, 11:52:14 PM
here we go...http://southernwx.com/community/attachments/gfs_uv250_us_32-png.128/
« Last Edit: February 12, 2017, 11:52:14 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #25 on: February 13, 2017, 05:27:29 AM »
Knoxville's official high on Sunday was 77, breaking the previous record high of 76.   ::blowtorch::  I spent all day with all the windows in the house open, in February, and it got to 72 inside before the sun set and it started cooling off in the evening.  Now I'm waiting like everyone else to see what the 10 day pattern change brings us.

Offline snowdog

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #26 on: February 13, 2017, 08:26:36 AM »
Knoxville's official high on Sunday was 77, breaking the previous record high of 76.   ::blowtorch::  I spent all day with all the windows in the house open, in February, and it got to 72 inside before the sun set and it started cooling off in the evening.  Now I'm waiting like everyone else to see what the 10 day pattern change brings us.

00z Euro says it will bring more open window days than closed. 

Offline BRUCE

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #27 on: February 13, 2017, 08:35:30 AM »
00z Euro says it will bring more open window days than closed.
and pretty much so says the extended gfs... maybe a day so closed window nights...

Post Merge: February 13, 2017, 01:30:47 PM
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/f192.gif... this is so close to something major... teleconnections say this goes north... other boards such as American and most other weather boards I read think this has the makng for a big huge severe wx outbreak... think folks from the arkaltex to the lower ohio valley need pay close attention towards later month... the h5 pattern is screaming a vilotale situation... this thing even is close to a triple phaser on this look on todays euro ::coffee::
« Last Edit: February 13, 2017, 01:30:47 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #28 on: February 13, 2017, 03:33:43 PM »
good gracious the 0z gfs... fixing to get very active on stormy side of things... that sub tropical jet is insane on this run... I leave it at that for now ::coffee::

Post Merge: February 12, 2017, 11:52:14 PM
here we go...http://southernwx.com/community/attachments/gfs_uv250_us_32-png.128/

It is interesting to note the subtropical jet because we are now in ENSO Neutral and look to gradually heat to Warm Neutral or even Weak El-Nino as we go into the spring, summer, and fall of 2017. The idea of a double dose of Nina doesn't appear to be on the table anymore. I wonder if perhaps the ENSO shift may contribute to that being a significant fixture into the spring months.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: The 2017 Sprinter/Spring Thread
« Reply #29 on: February 13, 2017, 06:23:46 PM »
Does anyone ever go and read the blog Bering Sea Rule ? Sort of interesting and their method of forecasting predicted a major severe outbreak between Feb 15 and 23.  This forecast was on Jan 23. It very well might not happen but it is interesting. I have sort of kept up with it the last couple years and they seem to be good at picking up major patterns way before models.

 

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