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Author Topic: December 17 Severe Chance  (Read 6925 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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December 17 Severe Chance
« on: December 17, 2016, 07:18:49 AM »
Not sure if warranted, but with the other thread focused on the wintry aspect of this system, I thought we might as well separate out the severe discussion since half the state is under a slight risk now.  Day 1:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day1otlk_20161217_1300.html


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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2016, 07:34:21 AM »
Heck yeah. 2 threat threads at once. Things pickin up.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2016, 08:09:17 AM »
This was posted by NashSevereWx on Twitter. This is the HRRR sounding for late tonight in Nashville.

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2016, 08:33:42 AM »
Don't know which thread to put this in. ::rofl:: Look at this monster storm the 4k NAM has in the Dyersburg area with frozen precip entering county at same time. This cold air is gonna be so quick it will take your breath. Literally.


Offline wfrogge

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2016, 09:30:29 AM »
Almost a year to the day we had our last major tornado event in the Memphis area. TorCon of 5 and the HRRR looks very interesting from Memphis south to about Helena MS around sunset.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2016, 10:23:42 AM »
spc did up the nader threat up a smidge  2 to 5 percent... directional shear still not greatest... but lord plenty overall shear is impressive..

Post Merge: December 17, 2016, 10:46:58 AM
latest short term models are picking up on a couple discrete cells out ahead of the artic front... they have the potential to go tornadic ... looks like they form more linear as they had off towards middle Tennessee   .. would paste but on my sorry cell phone. lol
« Last Edit: December 17, 2016, 10:46:58 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline justinmundie

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2016, 10:49:45 AM »
spc did up the nader threat up a smidge  2 to 5 percent... directional shear still not greatest... but lord plenty overall shear is impressive..

Post Merge: December 17, 2016, 10:46:58 AM
latest short term models are picking up on a couple discrete cells out ahead of the artic front... they have the potential to go tornadic ... looks like they form more linear as they had off towards middle Tennessee   .. would paste but on my sorry cell phone. lol

Pro tip Bruce - take a screen shot on your phone and then upload via the tinypic link. Super easy.

Offline wfrogge

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #7 on: December 17, 2016, 10:56:20 AM »
Obvious I know but during the winter time in our area the difference between "directional shear still not great" and "OMG OUTBREAK" is very small.  This could be a low end event or it could ruin many a family during the holidays.

Will add that the sun has been popping out in Memphis off and on for the past two hours.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2016, 11:14:47 AM »
As of 11 am it is 74/67 in Dyersburg and sun has been in and out here all morning as well.

Offline StormNine

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2016, 11:19:59 AM »
The biggest negative for this event like many severe wx events associated with arctic fronts is the potential for the arctic front to undercut the storms. With that being said this airmass means business as 70's are already into KY and shear especially in KY/TN is plenty good enough.

Offline JTM1988

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2016, 12:35:25 PM »


This is a tiny bit concerning


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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #11 on: December 17, 2016, 01:06:09 PM »
The sun is shinning and it is 78/68 here. This is ridiculous.

Offline StormNine

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #12 on: December 17, 2016, 01:07:16 PM »
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1890.html

The extent of the warm/more unstable airmass has been vastly underestimated. A new Tornado Watch will need to go out much further north than the current slight risk.

Offline memphishogfan

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2016, 01:17:00 PM »



 
Quote
  Mesoscale Discussion 1890
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

   Areas affected...Northeastern AR...western and middle TN...western
   and central KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

   Valid 171900Z - 172100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed as buoyancy
   continues to increase and sustained deep/convective initiation
   occurs over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks early this
   afternoon across the AR/TN portion of the MS valley northeastward
   into western KY.  Temperatures have warmed into the lower to middle
   70s deg F over the MS valley and are warming into the middle 60s
   over the Kentuckiana region.  Along with surface heating, increasing
   low-level moisture is contributing to weak destabilization as SBCAPE
   and MLCAPE range from 1250 J/kg near Memphis to around 250 J/kg near
   Louisville.  Additional destabilization is expected over the next
   couple of hours near the Louisville area.  Very strong deep-layer
   wind profiles will support storm organization/rotation once
   developing updrafts can become strong enough to become sustained.
   Area WSR-88D VAD data show 0-1 km SRH in the 200-400 m2/s2 range.
   Given weak capping and the continued warm-air-advection regime
   aiding in moistening/lifting parcels to their LFC, gradual storm
   development and intensification are expected.  The magnitude of
   low-level shear will conditionally support an appreciable risk for
   low-level mesocyclones capable perhaps of a few tornadoes, in
   addition to isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail with
   the stronger storms.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 12/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35409144 37038946 38648631 38648565 38278531 37568545
               35158878 34979063 35409144

Offline Charles L.

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Re: December 17 Severe Chance
« Reply #14 on: December 17, 2016, 01:41:58 PM »
Areas will be under a Tornado Watch and a Winter Weather Advisory.. you don't see that very often.
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