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Author Topic: Hurricane Matthew  (Read 25390 times)

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Offline Storm Central

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2016, 11:03:17 AM »
Ridge is stronger then GFS initialized. Soundings from Bermuda indicate this anyhow. Matthew still a very powerful category 4 hurricane with 140 mph sustained winds. First category 5 since felix in 2007.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2016, 07:45:36 AM »
The morning's 6z GFS run has Matthew making landfall in NC as a Cat 2.
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2016, 07:54:01 AM »
The morning's 6z GFS run has Matthew making landfall in NC as a Cat 2.
What kind of impact would this likely have on regional travel?  Right now we're planning to go from Knoxville to the Georgia coast for the weekend but are watching this storm very closely to make a decision about whether or not to make the trip.  A landfall in NC probably would have minimal weather impacts in Georgia outside of surf conditions, but with people getting out of NC and aid moving in what would that do to travel along the Southeast coast?  It will be a couple of more days before the track is exact enough for us to make a decision, but I'm getting very worried about the practicality of being anywhere on the coast Fri-Sun.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2016, 01:33:24 PM »
Haiti (the poorest country in the western hemisphere) is in deep trouble in the next 24-48 hours). That country will receive the undesirable right flank of Matthew and likely some very bad storm surge. Latest models minus the UKMET show Matthew OTS although still close to comfort with the outer banks. Choppy seas will be a problem along the east coast regardless and.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2016, 06:22:16 PM »
My brother in law and his wife are flying to Jamaica tomorrow for vacation. I'm shocked that's even possible at this point.
EDIT: just talked to him. He's going to Destin instead now.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2016, 07:18:41 PM by dwagner88 »
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline WXRocker

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2016, 12:05:53 AM »
My brother in law and his wife are flying to Jamaica tomorrow for vacation. I'm shocked that's even possible at this point.
EDIT: just talked to him. He's going to Destin instead now.
Smart move.
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2016, 06:09:13 AM »
The overall forecast has bumped a little bit to the West this morning, with chances for at least tropical storm force winds from Florida through SC.  Even if Matthew doesn't make a landfall in the U.S. the wind field combined with surf conditions and coastal flooding could be a problem.  None of this compares to what they're facing in the Caribbean right now, particularly in Haiti, where they're quickly approaching what could be truly catastrophic.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2016, 12:25:46 PM »
The 12z model runs were pretty bad regarding potential landfall in the US. Most show some sort of US landfall, with SC/NC sitting in the most likely place for one, but even FL and GA are not out of the equation. It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro shows.
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Offline WXRocker

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2016, 02:38:31 PM »
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/173801.shtml?5day#contents

And for all of us who are playing the home game....   ::wow::
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2016, 03:06:41 PM »
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/173801.shtml?5day#contents

And for all of us who are playing the home game....   ::wow::
I saw a post from Rick Cantore this morning that the movement of the high pressure area over the Atlantic was suggesting a more westward track for Matthew and it seems that's playing out in the forecast track now.  The shift to being below a Cat 3 on Friday morning is potentially good news, but this is also a storm that has gotten and stayed stronger than it was forecast from the beginning.  This will definitely have the attention of people throughout a good part of the Southeast.   ::coffee::

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #25 on: October 03, 2016, 08:57:46 PM »
In Orlando and will be here all week. Got a rental car and ready to chase if it hits the coast.  If not I'm paying golf :)

Online BRUCE

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #26 on: October 03, 2016, 09:14:59 PM »
In Orlando and will be here all week. Got a rental car and ready to chase if it hits the coast.  If not I'm paying golf :)
you just better make sure you keep plenty fuel in your rental car... I think golf is going to be a after thought unfortunately.....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline WXRocker

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #27 on: October 03, 2016, 09:38:31 PM »
you just better make sure you keep plenty fuel in your rental car... I think golf is going to be a after thought unfortunately.....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/173801.shtml?5day#contents

Yep.
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Offline Clay

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Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #28 on: October 03, 2016, 11:09:45 PM »
0z GFS continuing the trouble trends for the SE Coast line. Charleston takes a direct impact this go around.

Offline WXRocker

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