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Author Topic: Hurricane Hermine  (Read 13205 times)

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Online WXHD

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #15 on: August 25, 2016, 10:33:37 AM »
That is very cool. Thanks for sharing that.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #16 on: August 25, 2016, 10:46:44 AM »
As the kids would say...the 6z HWRF was lit (this is an outlier solution, so take with a HUGE grain of salt).

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As Crockett pointed out, if this thing does decide to go to the gulf...odds are more favorable for this thing to turn into a monster. If it decides to hug the coast of FL (like the Euro showed) or stay over Florida (like the CMC the GFS), then this thing will not be that big of a deal.

The late night Euro run kept this thing hugging FL and hits the panhandle with a ~975 mb hurricane early next week.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2016, 10:53:25 AM by Charles L., Reason: typo »
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Offline Curt

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #17 on: August 25, 2016, 12:32:51 PM »
(Attachment Link)
(Attachment Link)

Nearly half of those tracks are into the central GOM. With no major cold front or toughing in the next week to draw it north, wonder if that's not a feasible option.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #18 on: August 25, 2016, 12:53:01 PM »
New 12z HWRF is further east and shows this just south of the panhandle of FL at the end of its run.

And the CMC was much further west with its 12z run. It takes a 994 mb, probably, strong TS into SW LA.

Post Merge: August 25, 2016, 01:25:39 PM
And the 12z Euro is coming in with a weaker run...much weaker to be exact.

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Needless to say there are still a ton of questions about this system.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2016, 01:25:40 PM by Charles L., Reason: Merged DoublePost »
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Offline Crockett

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #19 on: August 25, 2016, 01:39:24 PM »
Never seen this site until today. Pretty neat

https://www.windyty.com/?2016-08-30-21,31.025,-74.268,6

Awesome.

Offline Farris_TN

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2016, 11:12:35 AM »
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #21 on: August 28, 2016, 06:28:59 AM »
Several models, including the Euro, are showing signs of life for this system.

The models really don't show this system strengthening until it is SW of FL, so that would be tomorrow afternoon. It looks like shear will continue to frustrate this system today.
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Offline Crockett

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #22 on: August 28, 2016, 04:19:53 PM »
We have TD 8 and TD 9.

12z ECMWF really backed off from what the 0z run was showing...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: TD #9
« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2016, 09:11:23 AM »
This system is looking decent this morning. Most of the convection is displaced to its south/southeast, but if it can continue to flare up (and sustain itself)...then I would say this system still has a fighting chance of becoming something half decent.

Post Merge: August 29, 2016, 12:37:17 PM
HWRF seems to have a very realistic look for its 12z run. A 994 mb system moving onshore just north of Tampa.

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I think that is where the potential lies with this system, a strong TS/weak Cat 1 hurricane at landfall.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2016, 12:37:18 PM by Charles L., Reason: Merged DoublePost »
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: TD #9
« Reply #24 on: August 30, 2016, 01:32:32 PM »
I hear chatter at another site wanting to call this system dead just because it is still struggling.

Almost every model had it struggling at 1 pm on Monday afternoon. The 12z HWRF only has this system at 1001 mb by this time tomorrow, and the 12z Euro has it down to 999 mb at midnight tonight (which may be a bit too strong), and the 12z CMC has it at 999 mb at 6 pm tomorrow night.
And each of those models (HWRF, Euro, and CMC) have it hitting land as a hurricane.

Just like with winter systems, people are ready to declare a system dead before it is even set to begin.

Now, if by this time tomorrow we are still dealing with a 1005-1006 mb tropical system, then yes you may have grounds to question if it will ever actually develop...but to say that currently is too quick on the draw, imo.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2016, 01:37:40 PM by Charles L. »
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Offline Clay

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Re: TD #9
« Reply #25 on: August 30, 2016, 06:03:30 PM »
4PM recon flight recorded a minimum pressure of 1004 mb with sustained winds of 35 mph. In terms of model verification trends.. the European model seems to have the best handle on TD9 in terms of SLP strength and location. Hurricane watches have gone up for the Big Bend regions of FL.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2016, 06:08:44 PM by Clay »

Offline Charles L.

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Re: TD #9
« Reply #26 on: August 31, 2016, 06:06:50 AM »
Here is an update on what the models have TD 9 mb strength during landfall. *These are from the 0z and 6z model runs*

GFS: 1004 mb (weak TD/TS)
Euro: ~982 mb (Cat 1 hurricane)
CMC: 988 mb (strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane)
HWRF: 988 mb ( " " )
GFDL: ~ 980 mb (Cat 1 hurricane)
12z NAM: 991 mb (strong TS)
4 km NAM: 934 mb (LOL) (Cat 4 hurricane)


So, as you can see the consensus is for a strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane to make landfall somewhere in FL. Unless the GFS scores a major coup, then it looks likely we will have Hermine at some point today.


Post Merge: August 31, 2016, 01:44:33 PM
And we now have TS Hermine.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
« Last Edit: August 31, 2016, 01:44:33 PM by Charles L., Reason: Merged DoublePost »
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Offline Clay

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Re: TS Hermine
« Reply #27 on: September 01, 2016, 12:04:58 AM »
Anyone looking to be entertained, check out the 0z Canadian.  ::scratch::

Offline Charles L.

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Re: TS Hermine
« Reply #28 on: September 01, 2016, 06:04:59 AM »
The latest recon pass shows the pressure down to 994 mb. The official NHC track has it making landfall as a hurricane around midnight- 1 AM near Apalachicola.
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Offline StormNine

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Re: TS Hermine
« Reply #29 on: September 01, 2016, 12:38:00 PM »
Now at 70MPH so Hermine should be able to reach hurricane status and become the first hurricane to impact Florida since Wilma in 2005.

 

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