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Author Topic: Hurricane Hermine  (Read 9868 times)

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Offline Charles L.

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Hurricane Hermine
« on: August 24, 2016, 06:56:57 AM »
It is looking like we may finally have a tropical system to track. The models, not surprisingly, are all over the map in terms of placement and strength forecasts.

The Euro and HWRF are bullish on this system, where as the GFS isn't buying it.
This is from this morning's 6z HWRF run.

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]
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That shows, what would most likely be, a Cat. 1 hurricane heading for Miami.

The HWRF doesn't go past hour 126, but the Euro completely bombs this hurricane in the gulf and sends a strong hurricane into Lake Charles, LA late next Wednesday night. [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

The usual disclaimers still remain true, these models will continue to change between now and then...but this definitely deserves our attention.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2016, 01:57:49 PM by Charles L. »
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Online Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2016, 07:09:14 AM »
That Euro solution would be the last nail in the coffin for southern La.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2016, 08:04:33 AM »
That Euro solution would be the last nail in the coffin for southern La.
We all need to hope that this storm either fizzles over Florida or takes a turn north.  LA is in such bad shape already that the rain from even a Cat 1 would be catastrophic.  They're already talking about the recovery effort taking years, more water could wipe out what little is left.

Offline WXHD

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2016, 10:47:35 AM »
Should be getting sampled soon. Tonight's modeling should provide a little more certainty. Definitely keeping my eyes on this one.
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2016, 11:23:43 AM »
The 12z GFS is coming in and it continues to be unimpressed with this system. Watch this be like winter storms, where the GFS is completely lost and then will come to its senses and start coming around to the Euro by the weekend.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2016, 11:41:34 AM by Charles L. »
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Offline Curt

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2016, 11:47:33 AM »
The 12z GFS is coming in and it continues to be unimpressed with this system. Watch this be like winter storms, where the GFS is completely lost and then will come to its senses and start coming around to the Euro by the weekend.

Guidance for almost all is starting to move west into the GOM. Last night's EURO was devastating for LA/MS- loads of time to watch and hope for a fizzle.

Offline Hank W

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2016, 12:56:24 PM »
TWC is already sounding the alarm. A little hype as usual, but this one is definitely a serious threat to watch, especially if it gets over those warm Gulf temps. 

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2016, 01:41:03 PM »
The 12z Euro is back east and shows a strong TS/weak Cat 1 hurricane hitting the panhandle of FL. This back and forth on the models will be very likely when dealing with this 7+ day outlook.

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The 12z HWRF model completely kills the system, so there is that too! #ModelMadness
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Offline Hank W

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2016, 01:43:30 PM »
It is looking like we may finally have a tropical system to track. The models, not surprisingly, are all over the map in terms of placement and strength forecasts.

The Euro and HWRF are bullish on this system, where as the GFS isn't buying it.
This is from this morning's 6z HWRF run.

(Attachment Link)
(Attachment Link)

That shows, what would most likely be, a Cat. 1 hurricane heading for Miami.

The HWRF doesn't go past hour 126, but the Euro completely bombs this hurricane in the gulf and sends a strong hurricane into Lake Charles, LA late next Wednesday night. (Attachment Link)

The usual disclaimers still remain true, these models will continue to change between now and then...but this definitely deserves our attention.
12z Euro came in with another solution. Has the storm just barely slipping into the gulf and hugging the west coast of Florida as it moves northward, still a hurricane but not as strong due to land interaction. Very different than 0z. I think we will continue to see models struggle until the low can get it's act together with a better defined center of circulation.

Edit to note Charles beat me to the punch. Lol
« Last Edit: August 24, 2016, 02:38:59 PM by Hank W »

Offline Storm Central

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2016, 08:59:54 PM »

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2016, 07:28:53 AM »

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2016, 07:57:54 AM »
CEM2?  Look out Chattanooga!  ::wow::
We desperately need the rain.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Farris_TN

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2016, 09:03:38 AM »
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Offline Crockett

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2016, 09:06:38 AM »
I think this storm makes landfall somewhere along the Florida panhandle to the Big Bend area. But IF it gets into the central gulf and starts to churn, and makes it to Louisiana as a major hurricane...  ::wow::

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Invest 99L
« Reply #14 on: August 25, 2016, 10:23:34 AM »
Never seen this site until today. Pretty neat

https://www.windyty.com/?2016-08-30-21,31.025,-74.268,6

 

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