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Author Topic: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread  (Read 198564 times)

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Offline mempho

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1560 on: February 17, 2017, 03:58:17 AM »
The GFS is showing trouble in the long range. After a prolonged warm period it has the coldest air probably since Jan.
Oh,  thank you!   I saw 70s in the forecast for the next week and just wanted to vomit! This makes me feel better!

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline BRUCE

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1561 on: February 17, 2017, 04:15:34 AM »
Oh,  thank you!   I saw 70s in the forecast for the next week and just wanted to vomit! This makes me feel better!

Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk
don't keep the pepto to far away from you... ;) just in case...

Post Merge: February 17, 2017, 04:24:44 AM
going over the gfs and euro runs last night...that system late next week has some potential if models stay course  for a change... ::coffee::
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 04:24:44 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1562 on: February 17, 2017, 06:53:37 AM »
Euro weeklies have a prolonged central US trough for last week of Feb through almost all of March with BN temps statewide- coldest as you go west into the trough. This screams southern plains development. Northern plains are going to be frigid.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 08:19:34 AM by Curt »

Offline Matthew

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1563 on: February 17, 2017, 07:31:14 AM »
Euro weeklies have a prolonged central US trough for last week of Feb through almost all of March with BN temps statewide- coldest as you go west into the truth. This screams southern plains development. Northern plains are going to be frigid.

Hoping weeklies are wrong.  So called winter was wasted. Would hate for Spring to be wasted.  Go figure no snow now kills all the buds & any thunderstorms chances.

Post Merge: February 17, 2017, 07:35:10 AM
Something to look forward to is the total solar eclipse this summer on Aug.  21! 
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 07:35:10 AM by Matthew, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline Curt

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1564 on: February 17, 2017, 08:21:03 AM »
Hoping weeklies are wrong.  So called winter was wasted. Would hate for Spring to be wasted.  Go figure no snow now kills all the buds & any thunderstorms chances.

Post Merge: February 17, 2017, 07:35:10 AM
Something to look forward to is the total solar eclipse this summer on Aug.  21!

It has all of TN below normal if not well below normal for most of March. Not a bad look but climo after early March even if cold means winter storm chances decrease. There are plenty of exceptions though through the years.

Offline Eric

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1565 on: February 17, 2017, 08:21:37 AM »
To those moaning about winter being over, it's NOT over until March 20. 

 ::coffee::
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Offline JayCee

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1566 on: February 17, 2017, 09:38:00 AM »
One thing I'm learning with each passing year observing the weather is nothing is certain.  No particular weather pattern leads to a cut and dry result.  Last year we had a "Super" Nino, and California remained in an extreme to exceptional drought and a below normal precipitation regime.  This year we have a weak La Nina, and California has had one of the wettest & stormiest winters in nearly a decade.  Both results should've been the opposite of what actually happened according to our understanding of the ENSO cycle. 

We don't know as much as we think we know. . .
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1567 on: February 17, 2017, 10:52:07 AM »
This is a good look.


Offline @NashSevereWx

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1568 on: February 17, 2017, 12:43:52 PM »
This is a good look.



It's a good luck for sure.

Previous GFS run has the SLP about 400 mi to the NW.

The Euro solution at the same time might as well be for Mars.
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Offline Crockett

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1569 on: February 17, 2017, 01:00:09 PM »
I sense desperation is starting to set in.  >:D

Online Nashville_Wx

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1570 on: February 17, 2017, 02:31:28 PM »
I sense desperation is starting to set in.  >:D

Lol, once it goes too far you end up changing your lifestyle. The end results is snow all season long, you just have to put yourself there , and unfortunately TN isnt the best place to be.


Offline Beth

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1571 on: February 17, 2017, 04:05:48 PM »
After today's weather I am ready for spring! With that being said we will probably get a big snow storm!  ;D

Offline BRUCE

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1572 on: February 17, 2017, 08:22:40 PM »
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/1000_500_thick/gfs_namer_231_1000_500_thick_s.gif... here is another good look... same system dyer posted earlier... >:D

Post Merge: February 17, 2017, 11:11:02 PM
the gfs is full of lake cutters tonight... ;)
« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 11:11:02 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline snowdog

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Re: The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1573 on: February 17, 2017, 11:29:44 PM »
To those moaning about winter being over, it's NOT over until March 20. 

 ::coffee::

Confucius say, nothing can be over if it never started

Offline Curt

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The Official 2016/17 Epic Winter Thread
« Reply #1574 on: February 18, 2017, 08:57:02 AM »
Confucius say, nothing can be over if it never started

Ha well 2 days of winter anyways.

EPS is really consistent with a significant arctic air mass coming down from western and central Canada in a couple of weeks which jives with the MJO phases. About half the 51 members bleed it east into Tennessee for a frigid period, while half keep it going due south missing most of the east altogether. If it comes east it could change some perspective on winter weather- if it doesn't its status quo on what's probably going down as the warmest winter period on record.

 

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