* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement

* Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories for TN - Click the (+) Icon to the Right to see them ------>


Author Topic: Predicting 2016 US Weather  (Read 2327 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,641
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1616
Predicting 2016 US Weather
« on: December 30, 2015, 12:01:08 PM »
I was thinking this may be a cool game to play. I want everyone to come up with a bold prediction that they think will occur next year. It can be related to TN or not, but it does have to be something involving the United States.

You can make your prediction using meteorological data to prove your point, or you could just randomly come up with an answer.

Here is my bold prediction for 2016: The United States has not had a major hurricane make landfall since 2005, I think that will change and we will have TWO landfalling major hurricanes next year.

I will be sure to look this post up at this time next year to see how we did!
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,257
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2015, 12:18:38 PM »
I predict in mid April  there will be a major tornado outbreak for the lower ms valley... With the Midsouth being right in the bullseye.... ;)
Come on severe wx season...

Kevin Terry

  • Guest
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2015, 12:28:32 PM »
I predict in mid April  there will be a major tornado outbreak for the lower ms valley... With the Midsouth being right in the bullseye.... ;)

Of course you do....

....But I agree.

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,282
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2015, 12:40:44 PM »
Seems like I recall some precedence of some of the bigger severe weather events occurring during years that were a transition from El Nino to La Nina.  Someone might have done more research on that. 

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,085
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2015, 01:53:32 PM »
Can I please live to see something appear on this list? I've only been alive to see one of these stats come to reality.

Top 10 Snowiest Winters in Memphis
 1. 25.1 inches, 1917-18
 2. 24, 1891-92
 3. 23.8, 1967-68
 4. 20.7, 1984-85
 5. 20.5, 1959-60
 6. 18.2, 1909-10
 7. 17.5, 1904-05
 8. 16.4, 1947-48
 9. 15.6, 1894-95
 10. 15.6, 1914-15

Top 10 Biggest Snows in Memphis History
 1. 18 inches, March 17, 1892
 2. 17.3 inches, March 21-23, 1968
 3. 14.3 inches, Dec. 22, 1963
 4. 11.8 inches, Jan. 16, 1948
 5. 9.6 inches, Jan. 7, 1884
 6. 9.6 inches, Feb. 3, 1886
 7. 9 inches, March 7, 1875
 8. 8.5 inches, Jan. 4, 1878
 9. 8.5 inches, Dec. 7-8, 1917
 10. 8.1 inches, Jan. 3, 1985

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,085
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2015, 02:12:24 PM »
Anyone want to guess the last time KMEM has a double digit snow season? Its rather grim.

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,282
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2015, 02:21:13 PM »
Anyone want to guess the last time KMEM has a double digit snow season? Its rather grim.

I would guess 1988 if not 1985, unless one of those years with a freak dynamic cooling event over the last 10 years put it over.  My next guess would be around about 1996.

Online Coach B

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,844
  • Location: Marshall County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 161
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2015, 02:21:34 PM »
I want everyone to come up with a bold prediction that they think will occur next year....... you could just randomly come up with an answer.
Snowfall for the remainder of this winter:
Memphis: 12"
Nashville: 18"
Chatty: 9"
Knoxville: 16"
Tri: 26"
 ::)

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,085
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2015, 02:36:21 PM »
I would guess 1988 if not 1985, unless one of those years with a freak dynamic cooling event over the last 10 years put it over.  My next guess would be around about 1996.

Correct- Memphis Int'l is nearing 30 years without a double digit snowfall. Thats insane. Most of the surrounding area is above that- KMEM always seems to default to a 3 inch snowfall now matter what.

Offline andyhb

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 686
  • Location:
  • Tornado/Severe Weather Connoisseur Since Age 3
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2015, 02:44:14 PM »
Of course you do....

....But I agree.

Interesting.

I was actually wondering if it might be next year after we (likely) flip to a Nina for Winter 2016-17. Western and Middle Tennessee are sure overdue for a big spring event though. Last ones would be in 2006 for the former, 2009 for the latter. If you want to talk "historic" type events, then you probably have to go all the way back to 3/21/1952 for the Mid South.
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability™


Offline rbowman

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 101
  • Location: Hermitage, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 55
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2015, 03:41:30 PM »
I'd predict cooler global temps coming off the Nina and solar cycle on the decline. That should lead to a return of our friend the se ridge next winter - yuck!

Sent from my LG-H901 using Tapatalk


Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,347
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 88
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2015, 04:33:42 PM »
I will make the following predictions and come 12/31/2016 see if I'm right.

- I predict that both 2016 and 2017 will end the below average tornado streak both nationwide and in the mid-south/OH-TN Valley regions.  The rapid ENSO flips, potential -PDO or -PDO like pattern, and warm GOM I believe will contribute to this.  I also predict a moderate to strong La Nina for 2016-17. 

- I predict January-March to finish about average both temperature and precipitation wise and go back to a more traditional El Nino look at least at times.

- I predict at least two major dynamic cooling snow events sometime in the Jan-March timeframe.  One over our area because I'm a winter weather weenie and one that will strike the deep south like an I-20 would be too far north kinda storm.   

- I unfortunately will predict a  ::blowtorch:: for the summer which stinks because I think our mild and damp summer pattern will eventually come to an end eventually and with the southeast ridge showing its butt in December so why not predict that this summer.

-  I also will predict a major October or November tornado outbreak either in our area or just to our north and northwest.       


 

Offline skillsweather

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,664
  • Location: Lebanon, Tennessee north eastern wilson county
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 210
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2015, 04:59:07 PM »
I think this year overall will be dryer and cooler then any one year in the past 20 years. :D  (for BNA)
867-5309

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,347
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 88
Re: Predicting 2016 US Weather
« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2016, 02:45:56 PM »
Since 2016 is coming to an end I am going to resurrect this thread we did last year.

On my points, I was right about the SE Ridge coming back by the summer as it shaped the heat of the summer as well as providing a battleground across West KY/North Middle TN that lead to multiple damaging winds/flooding events. I was dead wrong about 2016 being the return of above average tornadoes and the two dynamic cooling events didn't happen although many of us did get lucky with the January 21-22nd Winter Storm (it wasn't a dynamic cooling even though). Late November did feature a tornado outbreak but it was a little further south than what I had predicted on this thread. Late November has what I consider to be the top two weather events of 2016 the Sevier County Wildfire and the November 29-30th Tornado Outbreak.

 

* Recent Posts

Fall 2017
by JayCee
[Today at 12:06:16 PM]
Hurricane Maria
by BRUCE
[Today at 11:45:54 AM]
BEMIS, TN --Historical Weather Facts, Climate Data, and Rainfall
by Mr. William E. Brantley
[Today at 03:59:46 AM]
Hurricane Irma
by DocB
[Yesterday at 06:16:54 PM]
Winter 2017-18
by schneitzeit
[Yesterday at 02:10:08 PM]

Advertisement