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Author Topic: Hurricane Joaquin/Catastrophic Flooding in SC  (Read 6624 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Hurricane Joaquin/Catastrophic Flooding in SC
« on: September 30, 2015, 12:46:49 PM »
This has the potential for major impacts along the East Coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/083335.shtml?5day?large#contents

« Last Edit: October 05, 2015, 10:10:57 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2015, 03:03:26 PM »
MRX has issued an HWO detailing flooding potential from Joaquin's possible interaction with a ULL over the area. 2-5 inches of rain possible mainly in the eastern mountains. I've noticed the GFS has suddenly gotten much wetter for the rest of the week over the last couple of runs.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Online Crockett

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2015, 03:33:11 PM »
MRX has issued an HWO detailing flooding potential from Joaquin's possible interaction with a ULL over the area. 2-5 inches of rain possible mainly in the eastern mountains. I've noticed the GFS has suddenly gotten much wetter for the rest of the week over the last couple of runs.

Looks like a sharp gradient on the western edge of the precip. Hopefully this thing veers a little further east of current model depictions.

Kevin Terry

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2015, 04:02:31 PM »
Loving these bullet points in NHC's discussions today. Hope it continues...

Quote
KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Preparations to protect life and property within the warning
areas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion.

2.  A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this
afternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic
states and the Carolinas.  However, confidence in the details of the
forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally
excellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States
east coast.   The range of possible outcomes is still large, and
includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the
Carolinas.

3.  Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with
as much data as possible.  The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of
missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service
is launching extra balloon soundings.

4.  Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days
away, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
impacts from Joaquin in the United States.   Even if Joaquin stays
well out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate
coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and
northeastern states through the weekend.

5.  A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be
required as early as Thursday evening.

6.  Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system.  This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the
hurricane.  Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areas
even if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea.

FYI the major model uncertainty at this point mainly lies with the ECMWF...which maintains an OTS solution as it allows the storm to hang further SW and the incoming trough to fully capture it...later. The other models have the slightly faster trek N/W that allows a more direct interaction and westward turn into the coast (mostly into the Carolinas now). As said by NHC hopefully more consensus will be reached soon.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2015, 07:25:19 PM »
Joaquin is really strengthening. Latest update is up to 105 mph. This thing may be a major cane by the next update.
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Online Crockett

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2015, 08:17:34 PM »
18z GFS really ramps up QPF for the Carolinas, although not quite as much for those of us here in East Tennessee.

It's interesting to note how the ECMWF continues to stubbornly stick to its guns on an OTS track, even while most of the globals are bringing this to the U.S. coast even further south/west than earlier runs depicted. Current NHC track is straight up the Potomac...can't help but feel that might soon be adjusted further west.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2015, 08:19:24 PM by Crockett »

Offline NashRugger

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2015, 11:59:29 PM »
Latest GFS run crashes Joaquin into New York City.  ::wow:: ::coffee::

Offline WXHD

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2015, 06:53:12 AM »
Cat 3 already. Hopefully it gets pushed out to sea. But the Atlantic waters are unusually warm and deep at 84f.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline Curt

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Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2015, 07:55:26 AM »
GFS going east and more east every run - moving towards the euro which hasn't budged its OTS position. 6z is a Cape Cod and islands issue only, if the euro ends up correct as suspect it will, it's really an embarrassment to the the GFS - again. Looks like winter is nearing.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2015, 07:57:00 AM by Curt »

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2015, 08:18:03 AM »
Joaquin says, be prepared for anything.


Kevin Terry

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2015, 08:35:37 AM »
Difference here is exactly as Euro predicted...a continued SW motion that allows for the hurricane to now potentially be missed by the incoming trough initially...meandering for some time longer before finally being kicked out more safely to sea. We shall see...but the odds of this scenario unfolding have increased dramatically in the last 12 hours. Would be great news for the East Coast (esp. the Carolinas) if it holds true as the Joaquin is in prime position to intensity to Category 4 with an outside shot of Category 5 later today.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2015, 08:44:33 AM »
Joaquin looks to be down to 938 mb...
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Offline Curt

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2015, 12:10:59 PM »
12z GFS finally plays catch up with euro. Anyone want to play go fish?

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2015, 01:44:38 PM »
12z GFS finally plays catch up with euro. Anyone want to play go fish?


Offline Eric

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Re: Hurricane Joaquin
« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2015, 02:49:27 PM »
CAT 4.  Holy ::poo::.  Go fishin', Joaquin.
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