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Author Topic: Christmas Storm!  (Read 3397 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Christmas Storm!
« on: December 18, 2006, 10:10:55 AM »
Well, there have apparently been some interesting model developments around these parts for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Memphis AFD this morning:

 THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A VERY COLD AIRMASS
 DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BY SATURDAY. A DEEP
 UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY
 EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR....A 1038 HIGH...WILL SPREAD
 ACROSS THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY. THIS IS STILL A DEVELOPING STORM
 SYSTEM AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS POINT. THE SHALLOW COLD
 AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD PRODUCE PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELERS ESPECIALLY
 IF AND WHEN IT BEGINS TO PRECIPITATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
 WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS OF THIS
 SYSTEM.


Nashville:

 NEXT SYSTEM WRN GULF LATE SAT MOVES NE AND DEEPENS ACROSS GULF
 COAST STATES INTO XMAS EVE. POSSIBLY SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX ON BACK
 SIDE LATE XMAS EVE AND XMAS DAY...BUT WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW.



Could a White Christmas be within the realm of possibility?  It's too early to get excited about that.  But, we'll have to see what develops between now and then.

 :?:  :snowwink
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2006, 10:17:45 AM »
Jeff over at WKRN's blog had this to say:
Quote
I've been following the GFS run-to-run over the weekend and it continues to bring in the first winter storm of the season that has a decent snow track for Tennessee (the low passing to the east of Nashville). If I HAD to give a forecast today (and thank goodness I don't, long range forecasting past 5-6 days is (as I've said before) is an exercise in folly) I'd still be talking about rain changing over to snow. As far as the timing, the "snow band" that follows the western edge of low in the cold air, and how much snow we'd get after the changeover... up in the air. Right now snow in western Tennessee and a mix changing over to light snow for Nashville. We'll follow the forecast story all week as we countdown to Christmas.
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Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

KJ4CPT

Offline Thundersnow

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2006, 10:19:56 AM »
Yep.  I was just reading that.
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Offline Eric

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2006, 10:27:42 AM »
Just grabbed these off the Penn State EWall:





If I'm lookin at these right (house money says I'm not) we could stand a fighters chance of seein white stuff on Christmas.  What do ya'll think?
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Mississippi State B.S. Geosciences/Operational Meteorology student

Nowcaster for Rutherford Co., Tennessee (@RuthSevereWx)

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"I'm not going to get my head shot off in some far away land because you don't habla, comprende?"

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Offline Eric

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2006, 10:28:15 AM »
Sorry for the double posting!!  Stupid computer...
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Mississippi State B.S. Geosciences/Operational Meteorology student

Nowcaster for Rutherford Co., Tennessee (@RuthSevereWx)

KJ4IXE

"I'm not going to get my head shot off in some far away land because you don't habla, comprende?"

"Sargeant, you get that contraband stogie out of my face before I shove it so far up your *** you'll have to set fire to your nose to light it."
                             - GSgt. Highway, "Heartbreak Ridge"

servocrow

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2006, 10:37:41 AM »
Well, well, well.....

This is almost too much for my little pea brain to handle...

I'm suppose to be driving to KY (again) on Christmas Day, but that will change depending on the weather...

Will be watching forecasts this week for sure ...

(thought I was hearing Jeff wrong this morning when he mentioned snow for West TN on the morning broadcast)...
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Offline Thundersnow

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2006, 10:53:58 AM »
It's enough to get those Alabama posters excited about their possibilites on the TalkWeather forum.  

Whenever a system like this is coming, they'll go on about their prospects down there, when we barely have a chance here.  Bless their hearts.
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Offline Eric

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2006, 11:45:31 AM »
Found this little model interesting...



I guess this is the GFS precip model valid for 7.5 days out....isn't 7.5 days out CHRISTMAS!!!???

 :snowwink
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Mississippi State B.S. Geosciences/Operational Meteorology student

Nowcaster for Rutherford Co., Tennessee (@RuthSevereWx)

KJ4IXE

"I'm not going to get my head shot off in some far away land because you don't habla, comprende?"

"Sargeant, you get that contraband stogie out of my face before I shove it so far up your *** you'll have to set fire to your nose to light it."
                             - GSgt. Highway, "Heartbreak Ridge"

servocrow

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #8 on: December 18, 2006, 11:50:11 AM »
Looking at that (I don't remember, will we be within that 540 line?), looks like another monster storm coming into the West Coast too..AND WHAT THE HECK is going on in Florida?  

Dang...

Wild...

Heck, let it snow...
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Offline Thundersnow

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2006, 03:40:48 PM »
Nashville AFD this afternoon...

 IN THE EXT...UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS FAR WESTERN TN ON SUNDAY.
 ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE. WITH
 THESE TRACKS...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SAT NT INTO SUN. COLDER AIR WILL
 WRAP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO
 SNOW LATE SUN NT ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TN. MOISTURE
 LOOKS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW SO THE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT.
 
 ON MON...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPS DOWN ACROSS AR AND LOOKS
 TO BE ON ITS WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
 LIGHT SNOW FOR TUES.

Whether we get anything on Christmas or not... at least, it's looking like a more wintry pattern for Christmas week.
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servocrow

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2006, 03:43:23 PM »
There No Business Like Snow Business
Like No Business I know!!!!
 :roll:
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Offline msdawg911

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #11 on: December 18, 2006, 04:08:38 PM »
Afternoon AFD from MEM:

Quote
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PULL OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS...DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND
WHERE THE SURFACE / UPPER LOW(S) TRACK. AT THIS POINT...WILL
INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY WINTER PRECIP AT THIS POINT...BUT OBVIOUSLY
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
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Offline Reneezelle

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2006, 02:49:10 PM »
I am telling you people, its going to snow on Christmas! Im telling you! I feel it in my bones!!!! Its coming!!!!
I've been saying this for weeks now. I KNOW IT IS!!!  :D  :D  :D  :D  :D  :D  :D  :D
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Arise, eat food, and let your heart be cheerful... -1 Kings 21:7

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servocrow

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Christmas Storm!
« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2006, 04:34:57 PM »
Well I hope you are right!!!

Welcome to The Zone, btw!!!!

 :D  :snowwink  :welcome  :cheers
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Offline kailynleto | Nightwolf

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« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2006, 04:37:53 PM »
I, personally, haven't had an enjoyable Christmas snow in a long time...thank goodness I don't live in Australia.
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Quote
UNIQUE SOUTHERN BONDING EXPERIENCE OF FIGHTING FOR THE LAST MILK AND BREAD ON THE SHELVES AS THE STORM APPROACHES.
Quote from: tennessee storm09 on January 30, 2009, 06:23:02 PM
i just got off work and seen the latest gfs, its most def. smoking some good sh-t.
Quote from: harlequin on January 09, 2011, 11:54:33 PM
snOMG.
2010-11:
11/25 2.0"
12/12 2"
12/25 2"
1/10-1/13 0.5"
1/25 2"
2/1 trace
2/4 0.3"
2/7 6"
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