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Author Topic: 2014 proves hottest on record  (Read 10609 times)

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Offline beneficii

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #30 on: January 17, 2015, 09:35:14 PM »
I certainly haven't gish galloped if this wiki explains it properly.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Gish_Gallop


Since you all ready admitted that you're not reading my posts, there's really no reason to continue addressing it. I find it quite ironic though that someone would start a thread with a link to a news story and then shout down anyone who disagrees with the conclusion of the article. If you're looking to feel good about yourself because science, I guess you've succeeded. You're not interested in the climate, you're not interested in the environment, you're not interested in policy discussion. You're interested in shouting down anyone who disagrees with you and congratulating yourself for doing so. Sounds exactly like a religious fundamentalist to me.

This is where you did it:

Quote
I understand all that. What I mean when I say it's unprovable is that you cannot make a strong enough connection with a tiny rise in surface based temperature readings. Trying to pin down how much of a fraction of a degree rise in temperature is attributable to any one thing is impossible. The models they have created based on their assumptions have been horribly wrong, which just increases my confidence that no one actually knows. Sure - we can tell over 150 years that measured surface temperatures have risen a small amount. We also can't control for the locations of those thermometers, the urban buildup around them, the functionality and accuracy of the devices over the last 150 years. And then we certainly can't tell down to the hundredths of s degree temperatures prior to that record by looking at tree rings or ice at the South Pole.

Just look at the number of claims made in that one paragraph. The bold, which the scientists actually do take into account, is what suggested to me that there was no point in further digging through this. You were wrong on the bold, and coming in with the context of a whole bunch of claims being made makes it clear that it is a Gish gallop.

Offline Crockett

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #31 on: January 18, 2015, 09:41:26 PM »
Although I wasn't going to get involved in this debate (and I'm still not), it might be appropriate to just leave this here.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2915061/Nasa-climate-scientists-said-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.html

Offline beneficii

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #32 on: January 20, 2015, 07:31:57 PM »
It looks like there is some agreement by the Japan Meteorological Agency regarding the long-term temperature trend, and their own preliminary data suggests that 2014 was the hottest year on record globally:

Quote
The annual anomaly of the global average surface temperature in 2014 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.27C above the 1981-2010 average (+0.63C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891. On a longer time scale, global average surface temperatures have risen at a rate of about 0.70C per century.



http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html

Online Eric

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #33 on: January 21, 2015, 08:00:30 AM »
If the JMA says it's so, then it must be. 

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Offline beneficii

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #34 on: January 21, 2015, 09:59:27 AM »
If the JMA says it's so, then it must be. 



I would say you are very mistaken.

Offline justinmundie

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #35 on: January 21, 2015, 10:01:41 AM »
Bene - just in case you haven't realized. No one is interesting in arguing with you. You are not interested in a discuss. You're interested in being right and righteous. Some would call that being an ass. If you want a blog to talk about how right you are about AGW, then by all means, please create one.

Offline beneficii

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #36 on: January 21, 2015, 10:17:15 AM »
Bene - just in case you haven't realized. No one is interesting in arguing with you. You are not interested in a discuss. You're interested in being right and righteous. Some would call that being an ass. If you want a blog to talk about how right you are about AGW, then by all means, please create one.

Actually, I am interested in a discussion, if worthy arguments were actually put forth, instead of the repeatedly debunked trash that passes for argumentation among denialists. At some point, you just have to let them know, their views are simply worth less than yours because they are based on so many erroneous assumptions, instead of pretending that there exists a (false) balance. It is a logical fallacy to assume the existence of a false balance, in case you didn't know.

Of course, those on the losing side don't like knowing that and so they will whine and complain, act like the person is just arguing from authority, spit out loads of erroneous arguments in a small space, and then wonder why their opponents don't take them seriously.

The fact remains: The number of papers supporting AGW far exceed the number of papers not supporting it and that has grown more stark over the years, multiple lines of evidence are converging on the conclusion that AGW is what is happening to our climate, and multiple sources of measurement (e.g. NOAA, NASA, JMA) are coming to the same conclusions about the climate trends.

Online snowdog

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #37 on: January 21, 2015, 10:28:59 AM »
The fact remains: The number of papers supporting AGW far exceed the number of papers not supporting it and that has grown more stark over the years, multiple lines of evidence are converging on the conclusion that AGW is what is happening to our climate, and multiple sources of measurement (e.g. NOAA, NASA, JMA) are coming to the same conclusions about the climate trends.

How many studies, papers, etc. were written over the last 50 years confirming that cholesterol and saturated fat were the leading cause of heart disease?  The "skeptics" who tried to show the problems with this hypothesis were shouted down and funding for their studies were meager in comparison.  What was once thought to be settled science is proving to be 100% wrong.  How did this happen?  How did so many get it so wrong?  We built our whole health system off this wrong idea and look at the devastating consequences. 

In other words, what you think you know and what you actually know are two completely different things. 

Offline beneficii

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #38 on: January 21, 2015, 03:18:27 PM »
How many studies, papers, etc. were written over the last 50 years confirming that cholesterol and saturated fat were the leading cause of heart disease?  The "skeptics" who tried to show the problems with this hypothesis were shouted down and funding for their studies were meager in comparison.  What was once thought to be settled science is proving to be 100% wrong.  How did this happen?  How did so many get it so wrong?  We built our whole health system off this wrong idea and look at the devastating consequences. 

In other words, what you think you know and what you actually know are two completely different things.

Like every other area of science, AGW is falsifiable, as you have just stated. Were it not falsifiable, then it would not be science. We really don't have much to go on other than what we have now, and what we have now suggests that taking some action to reduce emissions could really help avert a change in the climate that is too quick for most species to adapt to.

Online snowdog

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #39 on: January 21, 2015, 03:55:45 PM »
Like every other area of science, AGW is falsifiable, as you have just stated. Were it not falsifiable, then it would not be science. We really don't have much to go on other than what we have now, and what we have now suggests that taking some action to reduce emissions could really help avert a change in the climate that is too quick for most species to adapt to.

If we are being 100% honest, we really don't know what we have.  We have a bunch of pieces to a puzzle that no one is close to figuring out, therefore those pieces can be reworked in any number of ways all which have completely different and contradictory outcomes.  What you are suggesting is take the absolute worst case scenario, act as if it is the correct scenario to give the public assurance and then make policy around it.  However the policy will have many detrimental effects, maybe even moreso than the direct effect of the problem itself.   

Offline mempho

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #40 on: January 21, 2015, 04:26:52 PM »
Like every other area of science, AGW is falsifiable, as you have just stated. Were it not falsifiable, then it would not be science. We really don't have much to go on other than what we have now, and what we have now suggests that taking some action to reduce emissions could really help avert a change in the climate that is too quick for most species to adapt to.

One of the prime issues for both sides is that no one has addressed the potential motives for either side.  The primary issue that the pro AGW hypothesis people have is that people do not believe due to motive.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2015, 04:28:49 PM by mempho »


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Offline justinmundie

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #41 on: January 21, 2015, 04:28:20 PM »
If we are being 100% honest, we really don't know what we have.  We have a bunch of pieces to a puzzle that no one is close to figuring out, therefore those pieces can be reworked in any number of ways all which have completely different and contradictory outcomes.  What you are suggesting is take the absolute worst case scenario, act as if it is the correct scenario to give the public assurance and then make policy around it.  However the policy will have many detrimental effects, maybe even moreso than the direct effect of the problem itself.   

Seriously - don't engage her snowdog. She's not interested in discussion. She's interested in telling people how stupid they are for not agreeing with her. You're wasting her time and giving her the attention she so desires.

Offline beneficii

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #42 on: January 21, 2015, 05:51:18 PM »
If we are being 100% honest, we really don't know what we have.  We have a bunch of pieces to a puzzle that no one is close to figuring out, therefore those pieces can be reworked in any number of ways all which have completely different and contradictory outcomes.  What you are suggesting is take the absolute worst case scenario, act as if it is the correct scenario to give the public assurance and then make policy around it.  However the policy will have many detrimental effects, maybe even moreso than the direct effect of the problem itself.   

As I understand it, we have as much as this: Year by year, the amount of carbon dioxide that is in the atmosphere increases significantly (and this is measured year-over-year). In the past, the amount of carbon dioxide that was in the atmosphere was relatively stable, that is, natural sources and natural sinks cancelled each other out, allowing carbon dioxide to remain at the same levels. Unfortunately, human activity, which involved both increasing the sources of carbon dioxide (via the industrial revolution) and decreasing the sinks (e.g. via destroying high-biomass rainforests), has thrown us off that balance. That is why carbon dioxide climbs. If I recall correctly, we know this increase comes from human activity because an isotope of carbon dioxide that is commonly emitted by our industries is what we see increasing, rather than the naturally occurring isotope of carbon dioxide.

(Even when a volcano erupts and stops airline flights in the vicinity, we actually have a reduction in carbon dioxide due to the stopped airline flights, the reduction being greater than the carbon dioxide output of the volcano.)

Higher levels of carbon dioxide, over the long run, will cause the earth to retain more heat, due to the greenhouse effect. The more carbon dioxide, the more heat, generally. Sure, cycles and things will continue, but those work mostly on the short- and medium-term scales; in the long run, the forcing caused by carbon dioxide will result in heating, and how much will depend on how much carbon dioxide continues to be emitted. This prediction is confirmed by recent measurements, which show that since around 1880 we have had nearly all of our hottest years, with the heating most significant around the poles (which are sparsely populated), after the year 2000. Only one of the hottest 10 or so years does not come after 2000 and that is 1998, when a strong El Nino briefly warmed temperatures.

In addition, we are noticing other effects, such as the long-term decline of the Arctic sea ice, destruction of the coral reefs in the oceans (I believe due to an acidification process resulting from the absorption of carbon dioxide by the oceans), and an increase in extreme weather (particularly higher levels of record highs vs. record lows).

That is the state of the science as I understand it.

Offline Drifter49

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #43 on: January 22, 2015, 12:32:01 AM »
 ::blowtorch:: ::blowtorch:: ::panic:: ::panic:: ::popcorn::
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
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Offline Drifter49

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #44 on: January 22, 2015, 12:49:38 AM »
Not all the so called global warming or not and I tend to lean toward the not side of things. Climate has always had it's warm periods and cooler periods all through time and this just happens to be a warmer period. Some of this could be contributed to greenhouse gases, but a lot has to do with the ebb and flow of nature itself. I'm sure Al Gore is still making boatloads of cash touting this mess. Just follow the money and the snake oil salesmen and this is what you have for the most part. Not trying to get into a pissing contest here, but who is really right? We may never know.
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

 

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