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Author Topic: 2014 proves hottest on record  (Read 13137 times)

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Offline beneficii

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2014 proves hottest on record
« on: January 16, 2015, 12:33:26 PM »
Quote
"This is the latest in a series of warm years, in a series of warm decades," said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies. "While the ranking of individual years can be affected by chaotic weather patterns, the long-term trends are attributable to drivers of climate change that right now are dominated by human emissions of greenhouse gases."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-proves-hottest-on-record-driven-in-part-by-by-climate-change/

Offline snowdog

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2015, 12:48:28 PM »

Offline WXHD

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2015, 01:32:23 PM »
Yeah right.  Gavin Schmidt is an agenda driven snake oil salesman, just like his predecessor.

This is a study released by both the NOAA and NASA. At some point you have to start accepting the science. it is not partisan.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2015, 01:40:23 PM by WXHD »
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly – raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline snowdog

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2015, 01:42:12 PM »
This is a study released by both the NOAA and NASA. At some point you have to start excepting the science. it is not partisan.

Who cares what alphabet agency releases it.  Show me the beef.  How did they get their numbers?  Does it jive with satellite measurements? 


Offline WXHD

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2015, 01:45:48 PM »
Who cares what alphabet agency releases it.  Show me the beef.  How did they get their numbers?  Does it jive with satellite measurements? 


Read the release, it will tell you how they came to their findings.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly – raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline andyhb

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2015, 07:46:37 PM »
This thread can only go to dark places.
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability™


Offline BRUCE

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2015, 07:52:32 PM »
This thread can only go to dark places.
I go ahead and send it then    ... called GLOBAL WARMING ::rofl::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline justinmundie

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2015, 07:56:35 PM »
There are multiple logical fallacies happening in this thread, by both sides. And I imagine that's all that will occur.

"Appeal to authority" and "ad hominem"

I'll just say I don't know that we have the ability to truly measure things like climate. I don't think that means that there aren't things to be concerned about. I'm skeptical of anyone who tells me that the world is going to end unless humanity does something now, whether it's scientists or right wing politicians. Fear is the easiest way to sell something to the public at large.

Offline beneficii

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #8 on: January 16, 2015, 09:59:46 PM »
I'll just say I don't know that we have the ability to truly measure things like climate.

Are you willing to put the full effort to find out, yes or no?

If not, then in my opinion you should defer to others.

That's the problem with information in this world. There is so much information about each little subject that it takes years of both educational and practical experience to get a firm grasp on a subject. The vast majority of people don't have time for it, to put so much effort into getting that firm grasp.

Nevertheless, we have seen people who have put much educational and practical experience into climatology, people that took the time to get a firm grasp on the subject of climate, and we've seen them reach a near-unanimous conclusion regarding the state of this planet's climate.

Why have they reached the near-unanimous conclusion? Is it that funding will be stripped if they don't follow it? Where's the evidence for that? What about the funding of scientists by corporations to reach a contrarian conclusion? Is it just that once you get a firm grasp on climatology, things like anthropogenic global warming become obvious?

That's something to think about.

Offline beneficii

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #9 on: January 16, 2015, 10:00:16 PM »
This thread can only go to dark places.

Nevertheless, it is highly relevant to the topic of this forum.

Offline justinmundie

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2015, 10:22:30 PM »
Are you willing to put the full effort to find out, yes or no?

If not, then in my opinion you should defer to others.

That's the problem with information in this world. There is so much information about each little subject that it takes years of both educational and practical experience to get a firm grasp on a subject. The vast majority of people don't have time for it, to put so much effort into getting that firm grasp.

Nevertheless, we have seen people who have put much educational and practical experience into climatology, people that took the time to get a firm grasp on the subject of climate, and we've seen them reach a near-unanimous conclusion regarding the state of this planet's climate.

Why have they reached the near-unanimous conclusion? Is it that funding will be stripped if they don't follow it? Where's the evidence for that? What about the funding of scientists by corporations to reach a contrarian conclusion? Is it just that once you get a firm grasp on climatology, things like anthropogenic global warming become obvious?

That's something to think about.

By full effort do you mean do I have a phd in climatology? No. Do you have to have a theology degree to be a real atheist? That's a foolish line of reasoning bene. Which is exactly part of the problem on your side of the "debate". (Not that there aren't large problems on the other side as well... Lest you think I'm not being fair.)

It's unprovable. There are far too many variables to say anything for certain, and anyone who says otherwise on either side of the "debate" is agenda driven. You cannot predict the future. You can make reasonable guesses about the future - but anyone who says they can tell you without a doubt something that is going to happen is delusional. I cant even
Say for certain that we are going to exist in 5 minutes - though I can reasonably say it's highly probable. And that's a very low variable situation.


There are variables on variables that go into
Climate. I don't know them all, Michael Mann nor Roy spencer knows them all. And they have about as much education in the matter as a human being can
Have. Should we reduce our carbon footprint? I would
Think nothing bad would happen front doing so. Is Miami going to be under  feet of water in 100 years? I don't know - maybe?

All I know is that using predictions of disaster if x isn't done is one of the oldest tricks in the book. And being someone who knows history - I am justifiably skeptical of such tactics.

Offline beneficii

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2015, 10:46:00 PM »
It's unprovable.

EVERYTHING in science is unprovable, because all science is ultimately based on inductive reasoning (i.e. every time we've seen it happen, it happens like this, so it always happens like this) as opposed to deductive reasoning (i.e. following from these premises that we know to be true the conclusion is also true). Don't get me wrong. Deductive reasoning is used in science, particularly where math is applied, but science is ultimately based on what we've observed, so it is inductive at its heart. Any law, theory, or hypothesis of science may be overthrown by a future contrary observation. Science can never rule out that any of its laws, theories, or hypotheses may be brought down by a future observation.

Nevertheless, science is **** useful and tends to tell us a lot.

IMO, if you don't understand even that, then you don't know much about science or the scientific method and deferring to the experts is probably your best bet.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2015, 10:47:46 PM by beneficii »

Offline beneficii

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2015, 06:33:59 AM »
Quote
You cannot predict the future. You can make reasonable guesses about the future - but anyone who says they can tell you without a doubt something that is going to happen is delusional. I cant even
Say for certain that we are going to exist in 5 minutes - though I can reasonably say it's highly probable. And that's a very low variable situation.

What you're saying shows how anthropogenic global warming is falsifiable. Falsifiability is required for any scientific law, theory, or hypothesis. Falsifiability means that the law, theory, or hypothesis could in concept be disproved by certain, pre-defined observations (and real scientists generally know what kinds of observations would falsify their laws, theories, and hypotheses). If it's not falsifiable, then it's not real science. Anthropogenic global warming is real science because it's falsifiable, among other things.

And again, real science is damned useful and not something to be ignored.

Offline justinmundie

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2015, 06:43:55 AM »
I understand all that. What I mean when I say it's unprovable is that you cannot make a strong enough connection with a tiny rise in surface based temperature readings. Trying to pin down how much of a fraction of a degree rise in temperature is attributable to any one thing is impossible. The models they have created based on their assumptions have been horribly wrong, which just increases my confidence that no one actually knows. Sure - we can tell over 150 years that measured surface temperatures have risen a small amount. We also can't control for the locations of those thermometers, the urban buildup around them, the functionality and accuracy of the devices over the last 150 years. And then we certainly can't tell down to the hundredths of s degree temperatures prior to that record by looking at tree rings or ice at the South Pole.

bene - stop with the appeal to authority. Just because someone works for a government organization does not mean that what they say is automatically true and that I should just believe them because their organization is official. That is a basic logical fallacy and it prevents me from giving full due to what you are saying.

Offline beneficii

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Re: 2014 proves hottest on record
« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2015, 06:53:31 AM »
I understand all that. What I mean when I say it's unprovable is that you cannot make a strong enough connection with a tiny rise in surface based temperature readings. Trying to pin down how much of a fraction of a degree rise in temperature is attributable to any one thing is impossible. The models they have created based on their assumptions have been horribly wrong, which just increases my confidence that no one actually knows. Sure - we can tell over 150 years that measured surface temperatures have risen a small amount. We also can't control for the locations of those thermometers, the urban buildup around them, the functionality and accuracy of the devices over the last 150 years. And then we certainly can't tell down to the hundredths of s degree temperatures prior to that record by looking at tree rings or ice at the South Pole.

Here you go with a whole bunch of crud that's been debunked several times. I see that you like to take a little Gish gallop around the park.

Quote
bene - stop with the appeal to authority. Just because someone works for a government organization does not mean that what they say is automatically true and that I should just believe them because their organization is official. That is a basic logical fallacy and it prevents me from giving full due to what you are saying.

What appeal to authority? Where have I said that something is true or false based on authority?

I think you misunderstand me. It's one thing to appeal to authority, but it's another to defer to the experts when you really have no clue what you're talking about.

When I go to a doctor about an illness, I defer to them. They went to medical school and have lots of practice seeing patients. I may not fully understand everything that goes into their decisions, but I don't exactly have time either to take on what is basically a full medical education to be sure I'm not misconstruing errors where there are none. I find deferring to a doctor's advice usually does me well. If not, then I find a second opinion.

 

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