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Author Topic: Who is the most accurate MEM weather source? (Oct 2014 Temp Evaluation)  (Read 1275 times)

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Offline Trevor

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***PLEASE NOTE: This is NOT an official study and should not be taken as such. While I have tried to make this as accurate as possible by triple checking my personal calculations, there is still room for error.

Throughout the month of October, started mainly because of boredom and curiosity at the beginning of the month, I’ve been keeping tabs on various Memphis area forecasts in order to compare forecasted high temperatures to the actual high temperature. Each day at 5pm, I checked six different media outlets and websites to collect the next day’s forecasted temperatures. By checking all of the forecasts at the same time each day, I tried to keep it as fair as possible. After importing the next day’s forecasted temperatures into Excel, I used the daily Climate Report from the NWS in Memphis, where I retrieved the previous day’s actual temperature. Then, in a separate Excel sheet, I subtracted the forecasted temperatures from the actual temperature (omitting negatives as to not throw off the average) where Excel calculated the average Departure from Actual for each media outlet.

With all of that having been said, here’s how things stacked up:

#1: MemphisWeather.net (average of 1.452° off from actual)

#2: Fox 13 WHBQ (average of 1.484° off from actual)

#3/#4/#5 (tie): National Weather Service Memphis/News Channel 3 WREG/Action News 5 WMC (average of 1.548° off from actual)

#6: Local 24 WATN (average of 2.129° off from actual)

(Also, must throw in my congrats to Erik, Kevin, and the entire MWN team. ::applause::)

(click to enlarge)

Now for the raw data:

« Last Edit: October 31, 2014, 05:28:14 PM by Trevor »

Memphis Weather

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Re: Who is the most accurate MEM weather source? (Oct 2014 Temp Evaluation)
« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2014, 09:18:43 PM »
Nice job Trevor! Thanks for the shout out as well but I definitely can't take credit for most (any) of that. Looks like it was very close for most all along the way anyway!

Next time you should try it with a 5 or 7 day forecast in the middle of the winter. See how accurate that holds up...LOL.