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Author Topic: Hurricane Arthur  (Read 4082 times)

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Offline memphishogfan

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Hurricane Arthur
« on: June 30, 2014, 11:36:44 PM »
First of the season. 





« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 05:58:05 AM by Charles L. »

Offline Fred Gossage

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Re: Tropical Depression One
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2014, 10:01:49 AM »
As of 10 am Central Time, we now have Arthur...
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2014, 04:01:45 PM »
Arthur looking more healthy, nice flare-up of convection.

I always wanted to specialize in hurricanes/tropical systems. Out of all the meteorological topics...hurricanes interest me the most.
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Offline memphishogfan

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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2014, 04:24:19 PM »







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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2014, 10:53:02 PM »
This is the first system to test NHC's new surge maps. VERY nice stuff...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025401.shtml?inundation#contents

Remember those are 10% exceedance maps...which are essentially a worst-case scenario. As the system is developed in the coming seasons we'll get more probabilistic graphics with multiple scenarios...and next year Storm Surge Watches/Warnings are expected to become their own separate product.

Full product description here...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/experimental/inundation/

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2014, 06:41:33 AM »
Convection looks to finally be developing on the western side of Arthur. I wouldn't be shocked if he makes a run for hurricane status today. Will depend on how stubborn that dry air aloft is, but seeing that convection on the western side is encouraging.
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2014, 03:53:59 PM »
Quote
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

Up to 70mph on the 5p Advisory...

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2014, 06:18:29 PM »
I'm on Isle of Palms this week on vacation. Surf was on the rise today, and I can see the high cloud tops of the core of the storm on the horizon over the ocean. Tomorrow will be a windy rough day here.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur
« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2014, 07:31:57 PM »
Now down to 990 mb. Is getting very, very close to hurricane status. Latest models keep trending westward. Looking more likely this could make landfall somewhere in NC.
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur
« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2014, 08:40:47 PM »
I like this...


Offline Charles L.

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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur
« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2014, 09:24:50 PM »
Check out @RyanMaue's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/484521375441235968

0z HRRR...shows Arthur up to 100 mph at 9 am. May be a bit high, but wouldn't be shocked if he is a hurricane then.
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Offline memphishogfan

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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur
« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2014, 11:24:52 PM »
Quote
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
along with satellite data, indicate that Arthur is very near
hurricane strength.  On one side, the central pressure has fallen to
988 mb, there were a few estimates of hurricane force winds from
the SFMR instrument on the Air Force plane, and there are several
satellite intensity estimates of 65-75 kt. On the other side, the
flight-level winds from the two aircraft did not support hurricane
strength, and the SFMR winds from the NOAA plane were also below
hurricane strength.  Given the conflicting data, the initial
intensity is held at 60 kt.  Another aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Arthur around 06Z.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Arthur
« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2014, 05:57:00 AM »
We now have Hurricane Arthur. NHC still expects it to get to 85 mph at its peak.
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Hurricane Arthur
« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2014, 06:55:10 AM »
Looks like Arthur is down to 983 mb per latest pass. I expect them to increase winds to 80 mph too.
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Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Arthur
« Reply #14 on: July 03, 2014, 09:02:03 AM »
Cloudy and windy here. Not much precipitation. We had some thunder last night in one of the outer bands. The surf is incredible. This is the closest I've ever been to a strengthening hurricane.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

 

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