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Author Topic: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014  (Read 138512 times)

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Offline snowdog

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #900 on: August 28, 2014, 09:45:15 AM »
Honestly snow or ice, if winter has the same degree of whining as last year, I won't be around much.

I thought it went about as well as could be expected all things considered.  Probably one of the better winters on the board in regards to complaining. 

Offline Curt

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #901 on: August 28, 2014, 10:58:52 AM »
I thought it went about as well as could be expected all things considered.  Probably one of the better winters on the board in regards to complaining.

The chat room in the ice storm about did me in lol. Hoping for better this year. But the constant "I-40, snowdome, Memphis-Nashville deficits" in excess makes me tired.

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #902 on: August 28, 2014, 11:14:06 AM »
I thought it went about as well as could be expected all things considered.  Probably one of the better winters on the board in regards to complaining. 

The chat room in the ice storm about did me in lol. Hoping for better this year. But the constant "I-40, snowdome, Memphis-Nashville deficits" in excess makes me tired.

Yeah...most of last year's whining went to the chat room. Which I suppose has a good news/bad news combo going for it.

I do hope everybody is as level-headed as possible...especially for the first half when there's no reason to get all up in arms lol...but things will get intense at times. They always do. I'll try my best haha....

You know what would make everybody happy...a nice 6-10" snowstorm right over the heart of the I-40 corridor. Only in our dreams though most likely :P

Offline Delete My Profile

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #903 on: August 28, 2014, 11:24:09 AM »
:( No! We need your optimism! If we've lost you we've lost the war....

Ok, ok...I hear ya ;) I'll play it more on the hopeful side. But seriously...I am thinking about doing something entirely different on the winter forecast "front". Gotta try something different this year...'cause all I know is that I started doing these in fall 2011. 'Nuff said.
If you like online cliques, this is the place for you. Should not have created an account in the first place.

Memphis Weather

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #904 on: August 28, 2014, 11:49:10 AM »
Ok, ok...I hear ya ;) I'll play it more on the hopeful side. But seriously...I am thinking about doing something entirely different on the winter forecast "front". Gotta try something different this year...'cause all I know is that I started doing these in fall 2011. 'Nuff said.

Ha! I'm not saying you have to do a forecast...perhaps it will be best to leave that little part out this go-around  :D

Offline Clay

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #905 on: August 28, 2014, 12:04:15 PM »
The chat room in the ice storm about did me in lol. Hoping for better this year. But the constant "I-40, snowdome, Memphis-Nashville deficits" in excess makes me tired.
Definately agree with you there, but in all fairness, you actually received appreciable winter precip from the March winter storm, unlike most.

The cut off gradient w/in Davidson was so sharp, even subtle geographical/topographical changes turned out to be the difference between warning criteria ice/snowfall and plain rain. Certainly a heartbreaker for many.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2014, 12:23:45 PM by Clay »

Offline mempho

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #906 on: August 28, 2014, 12:19:51 PM »
Yet another IT disaster in the NWS today...I just can't...

http://thevane.gawker.com/a-single-android-app-is-crippling-the-natl-weather-serv-1626643943

I would suggest you try. 

Took you 24 hours to come up with that weak ass ****?

This series is a great illustration of why we so badly need custom titles around these parts.  I will gladly accept a weenie title so long as cd2play gets a troll title.


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Curt

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #907 on: August 28, 2014, 12:21:51 PM »
Definately agree with you there, but in all fairness, you actually received appreciable winter precip from the March winter storm, unlike most.

The cut off gradient w/in Davidson was so sharp, even subtle geographical/topographical changes made turned out to be the difference between warning criteria ice/snowfall and plain rain. Certainly a heartbreaker for many.

The rhetoric though....which is already starting from some..."snowdome" blah blah blah.

Offline mempho

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #908 on: August 28, 2014, 12:25:33 PM »
Take this for what it's worth...

So, Joe Bastardi (not Survival Joe) is going double digit snowfall for Memphis this winter.  Clearly, he doesn't know about the Pyramid effect.   ;)


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Memphis Weather

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #909 on: August 28, 2014, 12:28:55 PM »
The rhetoric though....which is already starting from some..."snowdome" blah blah blah.

We should create a chatroom drinking game for every mention of "snowdome" or some other tired term. Snowdome would be worth at least 3 shots. We might all be dead by the end of a single night but I'd think it'd be fun!

So, Joe Bastardi (not Survival Joe) is going double digit snowfall for Memphis this winter.  Clearly, he doesn't know about the Pyramid effect.   ;)

No....167% of the seasonal norm. Which means a whopping 5" for Memphis!

Offline SKEW-TIM

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #910 on: August 28, 2014, 12:31:16 PM »
I think the same could be said for "LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION"
“You may be whatever you resolve to be.”
― Stonewall Jackson

Memphis Weather

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #911 on: August 28, 2014, 12:42:27 PM »
On another note if I can be serious here for a minute LOL...12z GFS forecast soundings looking much more potentially alarming across E Nebraska for Sunday. Not a clear-cut scenario by any means and still plenty of time for changes but this would certainly have MDT Risk potential...again I realize most reading this probably don't care...



Biggest issue for the most favored areas in these soundings is both the timing of convective initiation and eventual storm mode. If supercells were to develop here in the proper window...the ceiling would be high and shear vectors run perpendicular to the boundary along with a favorable orientation wrt a broad-based 500mb trough which would aid the storm mode issue at least. Further to the N/E...the parameters are not as strong and storm mode looks more certain toward an MCS configuration...though it could be quite strong in itself.

If this holds...I would guess we're headed toward a MDT Risk type day for Sunday from NE to MN...but still a good 72-84 hours to go...

Offline mempho

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #912 on: August 28, 2014, 12:48:22 PM »
With this being a likely weak(maybe moderate El-nino or even warm neutral) this means the El Nino pattern is still not strong enough to dominate, so it all goes down to whether we have that western ridge and/or a neutral or negative NAO.   A weak el-nino, western ridge, and neutral or negative nao is an overall favorable pattern.  That doesn't guarantee everyone gets slammed by several 6 to 18 inch snowfalls, but it is a pretty favorable pattern area-wide(especially for middle and eastern TN).

As long as California largely remains under "Exceptional Drought" status, the most likely result is a consistent rebuilding of the California high--this generally means exceptional cold for us (i.e., last winter).

That said, if any type of significant El Nino builds, this could at least partially mitigate the drought in the short term.  The new drought monitor classifies things as short and long term but it is the short term (i.e., the effects on agriculture and vegitation) that have the largest impact on the propensity of highs and lows to build over the region.

Obviously, a larger-scale pattern can eventually trump an entrenched drought (or else it would be impossible to get out of one)---so, the El Nino situation is quite interesting.

My thoughts are this-  an El Nino may be better for snowfall in the coming winter, especially when combined with some rebuilding highs out west and cold air dumping in the east, however, our multiyear totals will do better if we avoid large-scale features that will serve to mitigate or end the drought in California (such as El Nino).

Obviously, I'm talking about this from a weather perspective only and I could be wrong- the human ramifications of prolonging the current drought in California could be significant (from what little I've heard).

Many of you are aware that climatologists have been saying that the 20th century was an exceptionally wet century in California and that we may be seeing a regression to the norm.  If that's the case, the overall weather patterns in winter may bear more resemblence to the 19th century observations than those we saw over much of the last 30 years.

That is, average Januarys should have a sub-40 average temp (airport heat island notwithstanding). 

I'm certainly not ready to start predicting a snowy winter, though.  Last year was a classic example of a virtually snowless but cold winter.  I do believe that we were extremely unlucky last year throughout the I-40 corridor of Tennessee, though, and that the odds of a repeat in a similar pattern are smaller rather than larger.  Time will tell. 


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline mempho

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #913 on: August 28, 2014, 12:57:14 PM »


No....167% of the seasonal norm. Which means a whopping 5" for Memphis!

I keep forgetting about that "new" normal, however, I am of the opinion that there is no way we should be using 30-year averaging for snowfall--especially when one looks at the Memphis and Nashville snow records. 

That's my opinion but I think it's much akin to using 30-year averaging for Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms---which is not smart since I think most people see evidence of multidecadenal (at least) cycling.  In fact, 200 years from now, I think there may well be a kind of multicentury cycling to things as well and, while our ability to forecast short-term weather via numerical modeling these days boggles the mind at times, I doubt we have much knowledge about truly long-term forecasting. 


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Delete My Profile

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Re: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014
« Reply #914 on: August 28, 2014, 01:02:08 PM »
Ha! I'm not saying you have to do a forecast...perhaps it will be best to leave that little part out this go-around  :D

I agree...and I'm with you on that. I just didn't want to leak a "spoiler" out by mistake ;)
If you like online cliques, this is the place for you. Should not have created an account in the first place.

 

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