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Author Topic: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014  (Read 131123 times)

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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #30 on: June 02, 2014, 03:15:31 PM »
This is the year of the HP supercells...no telling how many rain-wrapped cells we could see.
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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #31 on: June 02, 2014, 04:12:25 PM »
Great AFD from Hastings, NE this afternoon. Especially appreciate the specific formatting choices. Good example for future use by other WFOs...IMO.

Quote
..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON-EVE 
 
PLEASE CONT TO FOLLOW SPC OUTLOOKS AND ALL AFD/HWO PRODUCTS ON 
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY SERIOUS SVR WX EVENT TOMORROW. 
 
SKYWARN AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WX 
OPERATIONS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY FROM 4PM-9PM. 
 
PUBLIC: BE WEATHER-AWARE TOMORROW. HAVE A WAY TO OBTAIN WEATHER 
INFO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. KNOW WHERE YOU WILL GO FOR SHELTER IF 
THREATENING WX OCCURS AND YOU ARE NOT AT HOME.   
 
ALOFT: A 591 SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS OVER NRN MEX...WITH ITS RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING N UP TO UT/CO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A 
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ONSHORE INTO CA. THIS TROF WILL TAKE ON 
NEGATIVE TILT BUT DEAMPLIFY TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES NV/UT AND SHUNTS 
THE RIDGE ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE 
TOMORROW. 
   
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVES THRU LAST NIGHT WAS ALONG THE 
KS- OK BORDER. NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE SE TONIGHT AND HEAD 
INTO THE MIDWEST BY TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACHING UPPER 
TROF WILL INITIATE LEE CYCLOGENESIS TOMORROW. THIS WILL FORCE THE 
FRONT TO LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW FORMS OVER NW 
KS...THE DRYLINE WILL INTENSIFY AND HEAD E AS WELL...CREATING A 
TRIPLE POINT WITH THE WARM FRONT. 
 
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VERY NICE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A 
COMFORTABLE AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK 79-85F AROUND 5 PM. 
 
TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO START BUT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS IN A   
STRONG BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH   
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. 
 
THUNDER: THE MAIN CORE OF THE LLJ WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.   
EXPECT ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS A PLUME OF RICH 16-17C 850 MB   
DEWPOINTS ADVECTS N AND DESTABILIZES THE ATMS. THE BEST CHANCE 
FOR TSTMS SHOULD BE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SW NEB. HOWEVER...THERE 
IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TSTMS TO DEVELOP FURTHER SE 
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TO NEAR KANSAS CITY IN THE 4AM-7AM TIME 
FRAME. CANT RULE OUT SOME SEVERE HAIL AS MUCAPE WILL BE INCREASING 
UP TO 2000 J/KG. FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TSTM OCCURRENCE. 
 
TUE: MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IT WILL   
DRIVE WHAT OCCURS LATER. TSTMS COULD BE AROUND BUT COVERAGE AND   
LOCATION?   
 
MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. 
THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND REMAINS A POTENTIAL FCST 
COMPLICATION. SUNNY...HOT AND WINDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. A WIND 
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-35 MPH AND 
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 IN VERY DEEP MIXING. 
 
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR N THE FRONT 
WILL LIFT AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY OVERNIGHT/MORNING 
TSTM ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN DETERMINING THE 
WHERE AFTERNOON SUPERCELLS FORM...ALONG WITH THE GREATEST SVR WX 
RISK. MODELS VARY FROM AROUND I-80 TO THE KS-NEB BORDER. THE 09Z 
SREF MEAN IS THE FURTHEST S ALONG THE STATE BORDER. 
 
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP...WE EXPECT DISCRETE   
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER S-CNTRL NEB.   
THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS IS CONDITIONAL OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE 
THE CAP WILL NEED TO BREAK. 
 
SEVERE: A STRONG JET STREAK AT THE TROPOPAUSE WILL RESULT IN DEEP 
LAYER SHEAR OF 60 KTS...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR 
CONVECTIVE MODE. 09Z SREF MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG WITH A VERY THICK 
PROFILE IN FCST SOUNDINGS. WHAT IS ESPECIALLY CONCERNING IS THAT 
THE 0-1 KM AND 0-3KM SRH N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL IN 
EXCESS OF THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR SIGNIFICANT/LONG-TRACK 
TORNADOES. 
 
EXPECT INITIAL TSTMS TO ERUPT 4PM-5PM OVER S-CNTRL NEB. OVER N-CNTRL   
KS IT MAY TAKE LONGER FOR THE CAP TO BREAK /6PM-7PM?/. DEEP LAYER 
WINDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT COMPONENT NORMAL TO THE DRYLINE. 
THIS TOO WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 
 
ALL THREATS ARE ON THE TABLE: STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL AT 
LEAST AS LARGE AS BASEBALLS...AND TORNADOES. FCST SUPERCELL MOTION 
IS ONLY 15-20 KTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A PROBLEM. 
 
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONGEAL AND GROW INTO AN MCS 
INTO THE EVENING HRS. 

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #32 on: June 02, 2014, 08:27:31 PM »
Yeah...its the NAM4...and its an index parameter which as I've said before is not always something I like to use a lot...but when Greg Carbin is pointing it out...you know it's unusual...

Quote
GCarbin 8:19pm
One of the highest forecast supercell composite parameter values I've ever seen from the NAM4 valid at Lincoln, NE Tues. PM...65!

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #33 on: June 03, 2014, 06:16:47 AM »
Day 2 outlook now includes northern edge of TN in a slight risk for tomorrow.


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Offline Adam

Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #34 on: June 03, 2014, 07:20:38 AM »
This is the most extreme sigtor that I have ever seen on the HRRR. A huge area in the 13-15 range here. I know it is computer model data, but this just shows you the atmosphere that they are dealing with today.
AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #35 on: June 03, 2014, 07:49:44 AM »
Wednesday night could be rough around some parts of middle TN...SPC considering MDT risk potential up towards Louisville/Ohio River areas.
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Offline Eric

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #36 on: June 03, 2014, 07:52:34 AM »
Wouldn't be terribly surprised if the SPC goes to a localized HIGH at lunch, both for the TOR threat as well as the wind threat.
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Offline WXHD

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #37 on: June 03, 2014, 10:21:06 AM »
I'd like to encourage everyone to participate in this study.
http://www.cyclonecenter.org/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=NoZoo&utm_campaign=HurricaneSeason2014#/home

It's a really neat "crowd sourced" way of learning more about hurricanes, not for the individual but for scientific community. I have in the past taken part in the galaxy zoo and sea-bed zoo programs and enjoyed them very much.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly – raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #38 on: June 03, 2014, 11:42:03 AM »
...And SPC officially throws out the "D" word *and* High Risk upgrade potential...

Quote
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN 
DERECHO EVOLUTION ACROSS NEB/IA/MO AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. 
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE 
HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES IN THESE AREAS. 
 IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND
SCENARIO...A HIGH RISK AREA MAY BE ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON SWODY1
UPDATE.

On the tornado front...it all depends on where things fire and how fast it evolves into the expected MCS/potential derecho. SPC maintains the environment along the warm front in NE is pretty much perfect and maxed out for significant/long-tracked tornadoes should storm mode and duration cooperate...but right now that's a question mark...which I don't suspect we'll have the answer to until we see what happens later today.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2014, 11:45:59 AM by Kevin »

Offline andyhb

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #39 on: June 03, 2014, 01:54:35 PM »
Crazy 18z sounding @ LBF.

Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability™


Offline Eric

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #40 on: June 03, 2014, 02:04:16 PM »
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Montgomery Cos. (@MontCoSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #41 on: June 03, 2014, 03:24:50 PM »
High Risk issued, though generally for the developing derecho over Nebraska...that will track into Iowa. That storm has already caused some incredible hail and wind gusts to 80 mph and its just in the early stages of organization.


As far as today's tornado threat along/south of the warm front...18z soundings show its highly conditional on the capping breaking with some cooling aloft taking place. Obviously the environment is extremely primed if it can happen...but it remains conditional and unknown even at this late hour.

Offline Eric

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #42 on: June 03, 2014, 04:31:07 PM »
VIL shot of the currently epic hail-producer N of Omaha, NE...



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Offline cd2play

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #43 on: June 03, 2014, 06:57:09 PM »

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #44 on: June 03, 2014, 08:42:14 PM »
Pretty clear Today did *not* work out in terms of the Tornado threat...as capping and warm mid-level temps kept things from firing immediately along/south of the advancing warm front...and sustained tornadic storm chances were hampered even more as cool outflow from the early storms to the north raced south through Nebraska during the day. Bad combination if you want discrete...tornadic supercells. So it goes in the year of 2014...

Nevertheless...impressive storms traveling just north of the warm front that has dropped some amazing amounts of hail...rain and plenty of significant wind. Whether it truly defines a derecho will have to be seen as the reports continue to come in. Not a typical progressive derecho case here (and not sure whether you can argue serial derecho given what have essentially just been multiple HP supercell hybrids). Weird event.

I know what it's not...it's not a LAND HURRICANE (inside joke for those in the chat room earlier today). But it has caused some epic wind-driven hail damage in both NE and IA at least as the picture below from Treynor, IA (KWWL) and there are others like it. Also reports of several hail injuries in Blair, NE.


 

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