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Author Topic: Summer Sweat(LOL) Thread: 2014  (Read 152312 times)

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Memphis Weather

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2014, 02:41:01 PM »
I clearly suck at summer storm forecasting because nothing is happening where I speculated about 3 hours ago. Just adding to my streak of suck lately.

On another note...how about some organized severe weather? Looks like the Plains may be lighting up early next week. Tuesday especially could bring some legit tornado chances to areas near the KS/NE border. Andy was talking this up a bit late last night...and SPC has outlooked that area this morning. We'll see...


Memphis Weather

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2014, 06:21:23 PM »
Triple post...Sorry...Deal with it...  ;)

But roughly one year ago this moment...
Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT
   
* AT 623 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
  SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 6
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF EL RENO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
  MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR YUKON...RICHLAND...WILEY POST
AIRPORT...BETHANY...AND THE VILLAGE...TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO
PRECAUTIONS NOW.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

Offline Coach B

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #17 on: June 01, 2014, 06:36:51 AM »
Finally broke down and turned the AC on yesterday afternoon. Been running it a little upstairs in the evenings where we sleep but had not needed it yet on the main floor. To this point just having the windows down overnight has been more than adequate. After sitting outside yesterday at a little league game for nearly three hours with almost no breeze and very little cloud cover - it was time. Nearly made it to June without it.  ::hot::

Offline StormNine

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #18 on: June 01, 2014, 10:55:07 AM »
This is a new week and new month.  One theme for this week and I think a big theme for this summer esp. for our area and points north will be "tis the season for MCS jolly fun". 

Offline Eric

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #19 on: June 01, 2014, 02:02:18 PM »
Triple post...Sorry...Deal with it...  ;)

But roughly one year ago this moment...

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Offline harlequin

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #20 on: June 01, 2014, 03:22:58 PM »
If this is your first summer in Nashville after living on the delta all these years, let me be the first to say, you will notice a difference. I learned that living in JBR last summer. Their summers are simply more oppressive.

Ha. That is a good thing since I have to take my team out into the streets for 5 hours 3-4x a week. The dog days will not be fun.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #21 on: June 02, 2014, 08:21:18 AM »
Breezy this morning.  Feels nice.  Some sort of boundary swinging through?


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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #22 on: June 02, 2014, 08:54:51 AM »
Day 2 Moderate Risk is out for the corn belt for tomorrow.  Both supercells followed by intense MCS activity are expected followed by a Day 3 slight risk that goes down as far south as the KY/TN line. 

Offline Eric

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #23 on: June 02, 2014, 09:21:05 AM »
Breezy this morning.  Feels nice.  Some sort of boundary swinging through?


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Thought the same thing, too. but it'd have to be a mighty impressive boundary to affect both of our respective locations.  I guess we were just blessed with a nice morning. 
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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #24 on: June 02, 2014, 09:56:11 AM »
Thought the same thing, too. but it'd have to be a mighty impressive boundary to affect both of our respective locations.  I guess we were just blessed with a nice morning.

Air seemed clearer with a drop in humidity, so I was wondering if it was a cold pool from an OFB passage.  I suspect things will juice up again soon enough though.

Memphis Weather

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #25 on: June 02, 2014, 11:11:50 AM »
Day 2 Moderate Risk is out for the corn belt for tomorrow.  Both supercells followed by intense MCS activity are expected followed by a Day 3 slight risk that goes down as far south as the KY/TN line.

As mentioned in a post the other day...some legit tornado risk tomorrow if supercells can develop/become sustained (and not quickly congeal into the anticipated MCS) in the prime environment across NE/KS. Parameter space in that environment is maxed out for strong tornado potential.



That EHI number you may see is not a typo...LOL

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #26 on: June 02, 2014, 11:40:47 AM »
As mentioned in a post the other day...some legit tornado risk tomorrow if supercells can develop/become sustained (and not quickly congeal into the anticipated MCS) in the prime environment across NE/KS. Parameter space in that environment is maxed out for strong tornado potential.



That EHI number you may see is not a typo...LOL

 :o at the amount of CAPE, which is undoubtedly influencing the high EHI values, but good Lord....

It looks like the CAPE doesn't pick up until the parcel hits ~750mb.  Question...will that parcel be surface-based or elevated?  I know the LCLs are low, and appear to be rooted in the BL, but I'm not sure if this same concept applies to parcels of instability.
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Memphis Weather

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #27 on: June 02, 2014, 11:47:47 AM »
:o at the amount of CAPE, which is undoubtedly influencing the high EHI values, but good Lord....

It looks like the CAPE doesn't pick up until the parcel hits ~750mb.  Question...will that parcel be surface-based or elevated?  I know the LCLs are low, and appear to be rooted in the BL, but I'm not sure if this same concept applies to parcels of instability.

Well I think the 889 SRH is helping that out too...  ;)

As Andy mentioned in chat...CIN could be a little problematic...as are 700mb temperatures which are bit on the marginal side. Both can be overcome...but it's not a slam dunk setup. These are the things that probably will have to resolve themselves in order to get good warm sector...surfaced based convection either near/on the warm front and at the triple point early on. If that happens though...there's no denying the supercell/tornado risk is nearly off the chart in that area.

And let's not forget that the later MCS itself could be quite the show. Don't want to throw out that "word" but its definitely a higher-end threat on that end too.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2014, 11:49:28 AM by Kevin »

Offline Eric

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #28 on: June 02, 2014, 12:22:52 PM »
Well I think the 889 SRH is helping that out too...  ;)

As Andy mentioned in chat...CIN could be a little problematic...as are 700mb temperatures which are bit on the marginal side. Both can be overcome...but it's not a slam dunk setup. These are the things that probably will have to resolve themselves in order to get good warm sector...surfaced based convection either near/on the warm front and at the triple point early on. If that happens though...there's no denying the supercell/tornado risk is nearly off the chart in that area.

And let's not forget that the later MCS itself could be quite the show. Don't want to throw out that "word" but its definitely a higher-end threat on that end too.

What word..."derech-show"? 

I'm here all week...don't forget to tip your waitresses.

About the SRH, yeah, I missed that.  I saw nearly 4800 j/kg and was thrown dizzy.  Levels like that are quite typical in the Plains, but moreso in late July/August. right?
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Memphis Weather

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Re: Summer Sweat Thread: 2014
« Reply #29 on: June 02, 2014, 02:30:04 PM »
What word..."derech-show"? 

I'm here all week...don't forget to tip your waitresses.

About the SRH, yeah, I missed that.  I saw nearly 4800 j/kg and was thrown dizzy.  Levels like that are quite typical in the Plains, but moreso in late July/August. right?

Well played...LOL

TBH you don't see that kind of CAPE/SRH combo much of anywhere at anytime. Of course we'll see if that actually verifies at such an extreme level...and then see how the convective evolution plays out. Perhaps we have an event similar to last month with one prolific cell on the warm sector/triple point that eventually becomes the originating point for a much larger downstream wind event.

The main difference with this event is the progged parameter space is even stronger here...especially with respect to wind dynamics. So the conditional violent tornado threat might be even higher than that one...but again we just have to see if the convection plays to bear out some of that threat.

 

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