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Author Topic: 2014 Hurricane Season  (Read 1836 times)

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Offline SKEW-TIM

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2014 Hurricane Season
« on: May 28, 2014, 09:46:31 AM »
Any thoughts on the upcoming Hurricane season?
Will it be impacted by EL NINO?


« Last Edit: May 28, 2014, 10:13:18 AM by Clay, Reason: Edited all caps title »
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Offline Flash

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Re: 2014 HURRICANE SEASON
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2014, 09:57:56 AM »
I think it's wise to go conservative on hurricane predictions given the  potential for a moderate to strong El Nino to develop later in the year. I think in terms of #'s across the board I'd take the 2013 hurricane season results and subtract 1 or 2. Granted I'm no expert; however, it seems like in recent years, the hurricane forecasts are far from the outcome. Also, it seems we've seen El Nino forecasts not come to fruition in recent years, so I guess at the end of the day, the season will rest on if ingredients can capitalize on above-average SST's in the western Atlantic...and any time there's not overwhelming wind shear/dry air advection (which I believe happened last year).
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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season
« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2014, 11:44:31 AM »
A minor El-Nino...at least...is pretty much a solid bet at this point. And any El Nino has significant impacts (on the downside) to the Atlantic hurricane season. Thus...a below average season is probably a given. Conversely...the Eastern Pacific season is usually hyperactive in such years and over there we've already seen Amanda which neared Category 5 strength...something unprecedented in the month of May for that basin.

Of course...as they always say - It only takes one. Everybody here probably realizes 1992 was an extremely slow season. But Hurricane Andrew made it a memorable one. Predicting that kind of impact at this stage is completely impossible...however.

I haven't closely tracked tropical stuff since 2008 (the year of Ike...etc) mostly due to inactivity. I suppose you can count Sandy but that was far from normal in terms of tropical systems. The U.S. hasn't had a major hurricane landfall since 2005...which I believe is an ongoing and shattered...obliterated and annihilated record by a few years at this point. I'm not sure I can still correctly interpret the recon reports...which I knew like the back of my hand back around 04/05...LOL.

So the simple answer to your question is yes...there will absolutely be impacts on this season by El-Nino. It means a quieter than usual season. But that has no bearing on potential tracks and any U.S. impact from even a single storm.

On a final note...I don't want to sound like I'm wishing for a U.S. major hurricane...but I kind of would like to see an actual Extreme Wind Warning issued. It was this huge deal for the NWS to create this entirely new product after 04/05 and the "Eyewall TOR" controversy...and it's not even been able to see one single issuance yet.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2014, 11:49:21 AM by Kevin »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season
« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2014, 11:49:58 AM »
A minor El-Nino...at least...is pretty much a solid bet at this point. And any El Nino has significant impacts (on the downside) to the Atlantic hurricane season. Thus...a below average season is probably a given. Conversely...the Eastern Pacific season is usually hyperactive in such years and over there we've already seen Amanda which neared Category 5 strength...something unprecedented in the month of May for that basin.

Of course...as they always say - It only takes one. Everybody here probably realizes 1992 was an extremely slow season. But Hurricane Andrew made it a memorable one. Predicting that kind of impact at this stage is completely impossible...however.

I haven't closely tracked tropical stuff since 2008 (the year of Ike...etc) mostly due to inactivity. I suppose you can county Sandy but that was far from normal in terms of tropical systems. The U.S. hasn't had a major hurricane landfall since 2005...which I believe is an ongoing and shattered...obliterated and annihilated record by a few years at this point. I'm not sure I can still correctly interpret the recon reports...which I knew like the back of my hand back around 04/05...LOL.

So the simple answer to your question is yes...there will absolutely be impacts on this season by El-Nino. It means a quieter than usual season. But that has no bearing on potential tracks and any U.S. impact from even a single storm.

On a final note...I don't want to sound like I'm wishing for a U.S. major hurricane...but I kind of would like to see an actual Extreme Wind Warning issued. It was this huge deal for the NWS to create this entirely new product after 04/05 and the "Eyewall TOR" controversy...and it's not even been able to see one single issuance yet.
kevin, remember the hurricane that came up from the gulf and actually put part of meg cwa under a tropical storm warning... cant remember year or the name of the storm... but think madison county was the northern extent of the ts warning.. wild... on tip of my tongue, but just cant remember name of the cane ;)
Come on severe wx season...

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season
« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2014, 12:00:13 PM »
kevin, remember the hurricane that came up from the gulf and actually put part of meg cwa under a tropical storm warning... cant remember year or the name of the storm... but think madison county was the northern extent of the ts warning.. wild... on tip of my tongue, but just cant remember name of the cane ;)

Ummm.... Katrina - only the most memorable and horrific hurricane of our generation?

And yes...I'm going full weather nerd at this point...but here it is...
Quote
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
721 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

.DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AS IT WEAKENS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT.

MSZ001-007-008-010-TNZ049-050-052-088-089-300900-
COAHOMA MS-DE SOTO MS-FAYETTE TN-HAYWOOD TN-MADISON TN-SHELBY TN-
TATE MS-TIPTON TN-TUNICA MS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLINGTON...JACKSON...GERMANTOWN...
COVINGTON...COLLIERVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...BAR TLETT...SOUTHAVEN...
SENATOBIA...OLIVE BRANCH...HORN LAKE...HERNANDO AND CLARKSDALE
721 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY...

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED FARTHER WEST...

AS KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING...WINDS
HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN
TENNESSEE. AS KATRINA MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MILES PER HOUR...WITH GUSTS UP TO 65
MILES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA. AS THE STORM CONTINUES
NORTHEAST INTO WEST TENNESSEE EARLY ON TUESDAY...THESE WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE.

AS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES. POWER OUTAGES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...SO MAKE SURE TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO RESTOCK YOUR
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS KIT.

MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IN OLDER MOBILE HOME PARKS. NEWLY PLANTED
TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. SOME SMALL
TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED
ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.

$$

MSZ002>006-009-011>017-020>024-TNZ053>055-090>092-300620-
ALCORN MS-BENTON MS-CALHOUN MS-CHESTER TN-CHICKASAW MS-DECATUR TN-
HARDEMAN TN-HARDIN TN-HENDERSON TN-ITAWAMBA MS-LAFAYETTE MS-LEE MS-
MARSHALL MS-MCNAIRY TN-MONROE MS-PANOLA MS-PONTOTOC MS-PRENTISS MS-
QUITMAN MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-TIPPAH MS-TISHOMINGO MS-UNION MS-
YALOBUSHA MS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SELMER...SAVANNAH...LEXINGTON...
HENDERSON...BOLIVAR...WATER VALLEY...VERONA...TUPELO...RIPLEY...
PONTOTOC...OXFORD...OKOLONA...NEW ALBANY...NETTLETON...IUKA...
HOUSTON...HOLLY SPRINGS...FULTON...CORINTH...CHARLESTON...
BOONEVILLE...BATESVILLE...BALDWYN...AMORY AND ABERDEEN
722 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT
TUESDAY...

AS KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING...WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...KATRINA WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND RESULT
IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 40
AND 55 MILES PER HOUR...WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MILES PER HOUR. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO WEST TENNESSEE EARLY ON
TUESDAY...THESE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY LATER TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE.

AS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES. POWER OUTAGES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...SO MAKE SURE TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO RESTOCK YOUR
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS KIT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.

MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES. POORLY CONSTRUCTED
HOMES MAY RECEIVE SOME WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL. A FEW
HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING. A FEW POOL
CAGES AND SCREENS WILL BE DAMAGED. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS
MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL
WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED. SOME
ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE BRANCHES WILL
SNAP. NUMEROUS SMALL TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES.

$$

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season
« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2014, 12:12:35 PM »
Ummm.... Katrina - only the most memorable and horrific hurricane of our generation?

And yes...I'm going full weather nerd at this point...but here it is...
think it was hurricane DENNIS... , seems katrinas most effects went just  to our west... though it was the same year as katrina 2005... dennis was  pretty good storm also... 2005 was an active season
Come on severe wx season...

Memphis Weather

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season
« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2014, 12:43:07 PM »
think it was hurricane DENNIS... , seems katrinas most effects went just  to our west... though it was the same year as katrina 2005... dennis was  pretty good storm also... 2005 was an active season

Katrina was far more impactful in the MEG CWA than Dennis. Dennis fell apart fast after landfall. Katrina maintained TS status well into NE MS...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/?n=hurricanekatrina

A TS Warning was issued w/Dennis for parts of W TN but was quickly cancelled after landfall...

Quote
331 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005
...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE IT MADE LANDFALL YESTERDAY. WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TODAY.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2014, 12:45:19 PM by Kevin »

Offline Flash

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season
« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2014, 04:59:34 PM »
Gotta appreciate a developing El Nino pattern under a clear-cut +PDO. Makes me wonder how long this duo will hold together. Honestly, I'll take a quiet hurricane season if it means another good opportunity for a cold (hopefully more wintry) winter. Or maybe I just like anomalies. Trying to find a resource that compares ENSO & PDO side-by-side...
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