Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01

[Snowman]

I will feel better about this when or if Nashville NWS bites on this. None of the local mets mentioning it, just mentioning the much colder air on the way.

[Thundersnow]

From what I've observed, Nashville is one of the most conservative offices around.  I'm sure it doesn't help when we have fiascos like last winter (February, I believe), when Memphis got dumped on with several inches of snow, and heavy snow warnings went up for Middle TN with several inches forecasted here.  As it turned out, we got nary a dusting that night.  I think it's tougher here in the Basin.  I've also noticed that we tend to get the nose of warm air intrusions from the Gulf, which can kill frozen precip events.

[Snowman]

Very True, Nashville seems to be very conservative when it comes to winter weather.

[Thundersnow]

Notice that the NWS in Nashville has introduced a chance of light snow on Thursday night behind the front.  This is also reflected in this afternoon's AFD.

[shaq725]

there is now snow for thursday night in news 2 seven day

[Thundersnow]

The Weather Channel 10-day is now showing highs in the 30s and lows in the teens on Friday, December 1.  That's even colder than Accuweather (which still has us in the 40s on Friday).

[Thundersnow]

From the Memphis AFD this afternoon:

.LONG RANGE...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS
 COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH PASSAGE
 OF NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 00Z/06Z
 GFS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS
 AGREEING WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT
 WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
 THURSDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
 FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN
 QUESTIONABLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE DESPITE DECENT WIND
 PROFILES ALOFT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
 THURSDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
 ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS
 SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE MAY POSSIBLY HANG AROUND UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING
 AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COLD FRONT AND THE ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER
 THAN THE GFS. ANALYSIS OF PARTIAL THICKNESSES/MODEL SOUNDINGS
 SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION...(SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
 AREA/MIX OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI) MAY AFFECT
 THE AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND ADDED A CHANCE OF
 RAIN OR SNOW TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDYAY
 AND SATURDAY. WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS BEFORE
 HIGHLIGHTING ANY POTENTIAL THREATS IN THE HWO.

Nashville:

PLEASANT WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH ABOUT MID-WEEK BEFORE FRONTAL
 SYSTEM COMES THIS WAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLY AS
 EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT MORE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY
 NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THICKNESSES REALLY TAKE A DIVE THURSDAY NIGHT
 SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW NORTH HALF WITH LIGHT
 RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. REALLY
 COLD AIR MASS DIVING IN HERE THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS
 WILL BE DOWN IN THE MID 20S AND THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE AS
 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE ENTIRE US BY 12Z
 FRIDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

[Snowman]

Channel 4 going out and saying anything leftover Thursday night will change to snow and even mentioning that Snowbird may be flying Friday Morning. A little early to start mentioning school closings I think.

[Thundersnow]

I know it's TWC, but they are calling for a high of 32 on Friday.  :shock:

The NWS is saying 40s, but I'm thinking that may be on the high side.  WSMV and WKRN are both saying 39 for Friday.

[Snowman]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
420 AM CST SUN NOV 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE AN INTERESTING FORECAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF
THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN
TIMING VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...BUT OVERALL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
RESPECTABLE WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL TIMING.

TURNING TO THE UPPER LEVELS...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSIDERABLE
RUN TO RUN VARIATION AND GENERAL DISAGREEMENT FROM THE GFS TO THE
ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
THE MID PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS HAS LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND IT/S
RELATION TO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. GFS ENSEMBLE TEMPS SHOW VERY LARGE
VARIABILITY AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR FRIDAY/S MIN TEMPS...
RANGING FROM 27 TO 54 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. REALITY LIES IN THERE
SOMEWHERE...LIKELY NEAR THE LOW END OF THIS RANGE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS UNDERSTANDINGLY LOW...FOR WHAT COULD BE A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT FOR THE MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HAVE TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW END
OF THE LARGE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE ARCTIC AIR HAS EDGED SOUTH INTO MT AND ND...WHERE TEMPS WERE 0
TO 10 BELOW. THIS IS A POTENT EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIRMASS. GIVEN
THE LACK OF LATE AUTUMN SNOW COVER UPSTREAM... EXPECT THE AIRMASS
TO MODIFY SOME BEFORE ARRIVING IN THE MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK.
NONETHELESS... QUITE A CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR OUR REGION...WHICH
HAS RECENTLY EXPERIENCED AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70. HOW MUCH
FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION FALLS...IF ANY...WILL BE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR NOW...HAVE
INTRODUCED A RAIN/SHOW TRANSITION TO THE THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIODS...WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MS. THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE QUITE A BIT BY
MIDWEEK.   :snowwink

[Snowman]

Springfield, Mo

UNFORTUNATELY OUR METEOROLOGICAL CRYSTAL BALLS BECOME INCREASINGLY
MURKY IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH WIDE
VARYING SOLUTIONS AMONG THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THE 00Z GFS
NOW SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER IT CLEARS OUR CWA AS A
WEAK FRONTAL WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS
BACK OVER THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE OZARKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS WOULD HAVE US
FIRMLY IN THE COLD AIR BY THEN WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS.
00Z ECMWF/00Z NOGAPS/18Z DGEX ARE EVEN MORE GLOOM AND DOOM THAN THE
GFS WITH AN EVEN STRONGER TROUGH POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE AND EVEN BETTER
SHOT OF ACCUMULATING AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IN OUR
NEIGHBORHOOD. THANKFULLY THE CANADIAN MODEL IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SYSTEM AND DOESNT DEVELOP A SECONDARY WAVE. THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLES SHOWED A VERY LARGE DEGREE OF VARIANCE WHICH DOES NOT LEND
ANY OVERWHELMING SUPPORT TO THE OPERATIONAL 00Z RUN OF THE GFS OR
ANY OF THE OTHER 00Z MODELS FOR THAT MATTER. GIVEN THE VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT OVERLY INCLINED TO START SHOUTING BIG STORM FROM
THE ROOF TOPS AND CERTAINLY COULDN'T JUSTIFY 60-70% POPS LIKE THE
MEX GUIDANCE HAS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE
FROM THE ECMWF/GFS/NOGAPS/DGEX IT WAS ALSO HARD TO JUSTIFY
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. AFTER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS THE CONSENSUS WAS TO LINGER PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND TO INTRODUCE CHANCES POPS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH
MENTION OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS. THE MOST CERTAIN PART
OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME IS
THAT IT WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO STAY TUNED.

[Snowman]

THE REAL
WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL AREA OCCURS WHEN A CHANNELED
VORT ROTATING ALONG THE WESTERN LIMB OF THE CLOSED LOW IS SHUNTED
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THEN NEWD TO TX/OK ON THURSDAY.

THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING/...THE UKMET/ECWMF AND GFS
GUIDANCE SHARE SIMILAR HEIGHT FIELDS WITH THE LARGE SCALE
TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN THE FOCUS OF THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE
GFS AND ECMWF LEAN TOWARD A 50H LOW OVER WRN ND...WHILE THE
UKMET SHOWS A DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ID AND MT. THE KEY
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN THE EXISTENCE AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVE
THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN LIMB OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
OR/WA/NV AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. WHERE THIS FEATURE GOES...SO GOES
THE ORIENTATION AND SPEED OF THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST.

ESSENTIALLY...THE SLOWER THE MOVEMENT OF THE MAJOR TROUGH THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...THE GREATER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
INTRUSION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LAST TWO
GFS/ECMWF MODEL CYCLE RUNS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SECONDARY CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SW
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS MODEL FORECAST TREND CONTINUE
TO HOLD TRUE...THE ENTIRE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL BE SLOWED DOWN.

AS THE SAME TIME...MANUAL ANALYSIS OF THE 925/850 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHARP ZONE OF THERMAL ADVECTION
THROUGH ERN MT/WY...WRN ND/SD/NWRN NE...IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
AIR TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE. HOW THE COLD AIR INTERACTS
WITH THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW IN THE NWRN U.S. WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE THE S/EWD EXTENT AND TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL SUB-
FREEZING AIR INTO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THE
SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EFFECTS OF THIS ARCTIC AIR WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE THE SCOPE AND INTENSITY OF ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

FOR THIS PACKAGE...ADJUSTED GRID/TABULAR/TEXT FORECAST TO SUGGEST
A CHANCE EVENT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SNOW OR SLEET OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO AT THIS TIME.

[Snowman]

Very Interesting read from Norman, Oklahoma. This system may be a little more wintry than we thought.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
336 AM CST SUN NOV 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONCERN FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM IN WAKE OF
MIDWEEK ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH GENERAL MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE MAIN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS WED-THU... WE PREFER TO MAINTAIN A FASTER S-WARD
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD AIR INTO NW OK BY WED MORNING AND THRU THE
ENTIRE AREA BY END OF THE DAY WED. FASTER MOVEMENT IS ESPECIALLY
PREFERRED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT W... WHERE MODELS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY SLOW IN SPREADING SHALLOW COLD AIR S. SE OK MAY WELL
SQUEEZE ONE MORE MILD DAY OUT OF THE CURRENT WARM SPELL ON WED
BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE.

BEFORE THE COLD AIR HITS... EXPECT CONTINUED MILD NIGHTS AND WARM
DAYS RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY AS RETURN FLOW MAINTAINS SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. ANY UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AND OUT
OF THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE DIRECTED NE AS UPPER HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR/JUST E OF FL. THUS THE MAIN SFC FRONT - WHILE
OCCASIONALLY MAKING A RUN AT US - IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR N
UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHEN THE DIGGING LONGWAVE TROF WILL SUPPORT A MORE
SUSTAINED S-WARD PUSH. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY IN
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND WILL BE BEST N OF THE SFC BAROCLINIC
ZONE... AND THUS N OF OK. MID/HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED
IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PERIODS OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RA/SHRA WITH BEST CHANCES E. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE ON MON AND ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS...
AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU ON WED.

GROWING CONCERN FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIP OF THE FROZEN OR FREEZING
VARIETIES IS DUE TO THE SLOWER AND SHARPER DEPICTION OF THE UPPER
TROF ON THE 18Z DGEX AND THE SIMILAR 00Z ECMWF. EVEN THE FASTER
GFS SHOWS A SHARPER TROF AXIS MOVING ACROSS ON THU. GFS AND DGEX
INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING N OF THE SFC
FRONTAL ZONE BEGINNING WED AND CONTINUING INTO THU AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROF. WITH TEMPS FALLING WED AND WED NIGHT BEHIND FRONT...
WHICH WE HAVE DEPICTED IN OUR HOURLY T GRIDS... THERE EASILY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER COLD AIR BY LATE WED NIGHT TO
PRODUCE A RISK OF -FZRA/FZDZ/PL IN THE REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT N
OF THE SHALLOW FRONTAL SURFACE. PL/SN MORE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
FARTHER NW WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE DEEPER. DGEX DROPS WIDESPREAD
0.5-2 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT ACROSS OUR CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU...
WHICH WOULD BECOME A MAJOR WINTER STORM IF SFC TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING. DGEX QPF SEEMS A BIT MUCH... AND EVEN IF IT VERIFIES IT
WILL BE LIQUID AT LEAST AT THE ONSET.

DESPITE EXPECTED WARM GROUND TEMPS... GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE
COLD AIR... AND RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO
WED-THU... WE HAVE ENOUGH CONCERN THAT WE MOST LIKELY WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK LATER THIS MORNING. EXAMINATION
OF THE 06Z GFS AND DGEX WILL HAVE A LOT OF INFLUENCE ON THE
OVERALL TONE OF THAT PRODUCT. 24

[Snowman]

Contribution of ShadowAngel from easternuswx. Lots of information behind his graphic.

[Snowman]

NWS forecast changes yet again. More towards a winter event.

Marshall County
Thursday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

Davidson County
Thursday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.

Cumberland County
Thursday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: A chance of sleet or rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Henry County
Thursday Night: A chance of snow, freezing rain, rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.