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Author Topic: Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01  (Read 3335 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« on: November 21, 2006, 07:14:45 AM »
Well, it's getting to that time of year when I, for one, begin squinting and straining my eyes trying to see if there are any trends toward winter weather on the horizon.

First, let me say that I'm not a model reader.  I leave that to the professionals and bum off the long-range outlooks from the CPC, etc.  I've also, since last winter, begun to eavesdrop on the discussions by amateurs on weather message boards.

Just to toss this out there... there is now "chatter" regarding winter weather around and just after the first of December.  The GFS model, which from what I gather is infamous for crying wolf about big winter storms two weeks away, is flip-flopping about a possible storm system in the Mid-South around December 1 and a turn to a colder pattern in that timeframe.  Checking the Weather Channel 10-day forecast for Nashville, "scattered snow showers" is indicated for Thursday, November 30 (http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/37221?locid=37221), with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.  Obviously, that would still be a bit too warm for anything of consequence (unless it's on the low side of those temperatures).

Anyway, nothing promising yet.  But, we'll be looking ahead to see if anything develops between now and then... if not in that time period, then further down the road.
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2006, 07:59:34 AM »
Not to burst your bubble on the long range forecasts that weather channel and accuweather put out, but they are just automated forecasts based on GFS ensembles (past 7 days). I know accuweather seldom reviews theirs, but I'm not sure about weather channel. Also, like you mentioned GFS has a cold bias. I'm thinking they tweaked it a year or two ago to get out some of that bias though. Not sure.

With that being said, I still think it'll be a hard winter. 1) because of oscillation patterns I've been seeing Oct/Nov and 2) because I've killed 3 deer this year and all had more fat than I've ever seen on deer (no reason for it unless they started using trans fats at McDeer).
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Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Offline Thundersnow

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2006, 08:28:16 AM »
No bubble to burst here.

I keep all of this in mind with a healthy dose of skepticism.  Part of the fun is just watching and speculating on what may or may not happen.
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servocrow

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2006, 09:13:54 AM »
FAT DEER = SNOW

I am personally ready to buy into this theory...What do they order at McDeer?  Supersized Saltlick Fries or something???

Hmmmmm.....
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2006, 09:59:44 AM »
Quote from: "servocrow"
FAT DEER = SNOW

I am personally ready to buy into this theory...What do they order at McDeer?  Supersized Saltlick Fries or something???

Hmmmmm.....

Get outta their way when they're having a Big Mac attack!!! Whatever it is, I'm sure it's salty and supersized!
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Offline Eric

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2006, 10:10:00 AM »
I'm kinda partial to the Clover Cobb salad.  

 :ROFL  :cheers  :D
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Offline Thundersnow

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2006, 09:01:36 AM »
Chatter regarding possible scenarios late next week continues.  TWC has taken the snow out of the 10-day forecast, with showers now indicated on 11/30, but a cool-down is still indicated on the backside (not severe by any means, but seasonably chilly weather anyway).

Ron, I have heard that the Accuweather forecast basically regurgitates the GFS in their 15-day (which would explain why they might flipflop so much).  But, I wasn't sure about TWC.

Speaking of regurgitation, Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!  :P

Will there be venison and deer dressing on your dinner table, Ron?
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servocrow

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2006, 09:29:13 AM »
Hmmmmm...I, too, wonder if Ron is going to have deerwiches for leftovers..

On Sesame Street, I hear things are getting a bit rough:

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Offline kailynleto | Nightwolf

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Venison...
« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2006, 09:29:51 AM »
Mmmm...nothing like deer meat...
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Quote
UNIQUE SOUTHERN BONDING EXPERIENCE OF FIGHTING FOR THE LAST MILK AND BREAD ON THE SHELVES AS THE STORM APPROACHES.
Quote from: tennessee storm09 on January 30, 2009, 06:23:02 PM
i just got off work and seen the latest gfs, its most def. smoking some good sh-t.
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snOMG.
2010-11:
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2006, 09:31:43 AM »
I'm deer hunting and my wife and kids are headed to Kentucky today. I'll be alone tomorrow with Thanksgiving dinner probably occurring at Waffle House. Unless I kill a deer tonight or tomorrow morning. In that case, there will be fresh backstraps on the grill for dinner!

Happy Thanksgiving to all you out there in Weatherzoneland!
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Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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servocrow

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2006, 09:35:23 AM »
I'm cooking here tomorrow and headed to Kentucky on Friday to decorate my parents' house for Christmas.  Since hubby travels so much, he wanted to spend a holiday NOT on the road....so we are...

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2006, 09:49:06 AM »
Dangit servo! You can't have a bigger HAPPY THANKSGIVING than me!!!

Here's another:

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Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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servocrow

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2006, 10:00:57 AM »
I bow to the master...

hee hee....

Now, I got work to do...you TURKEY!!!  (oh I had a huge pic to put here...but thought better of it...hehehehehehheeheheheeheh)


 :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:
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Offline Eric

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2006, 10:27:37 AM »
Happy Thanksgiving eceryone!!



 :cheers
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Mississippi State B.S. Geosciences/Operational Meteorology student

Nowcaster for Rutherford Co., Tennessee (@RuthSevereWx)

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"I'm not going to get my head shot off in some far away land because you don't habla, comprende?"

"Sargeant, you get that contraband stogie out of my face before I shove it so far up your *** you'll have to set fire to your nose to light it."
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Offline Eric

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Rain>Sleet>Freezing Rain>Snow Possible- 11/30-12/01
« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2006, 10:28:20 AM »
Sorry bout the pic...
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Mississippi State B.S. Geosciences/Operational Meteorology student

Nowcaster for Rutherford Co., Tennessee (@RuthSevereWx)

KJ4IXE

"I'm not going to get my head shot off in some far away land because you don't habla, comprende?"

"Sargeant, you get that contraband stogie out of my face before I shove it so far up your *** you'll have to set fire to your nose to light it."
                             - GSgt. Highway, "Heartbreak Ridge"
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