11/19-11/20 Snowfall event (Cumberland Plateau and East TN)

[Thundersnow]

Interesting twist in forecast for a system early next week...

MON AND TUES...A POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY DROP SOUTHEAST AND
 BRING A RISK OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A
 SLT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
 NORMAL. MAYBE...JUST MAYBE WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
 NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLATEAU WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT...FOR NOW WILL
 ONLY MENTION SHOWERS BECAUSE THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THIS UPPER
 LOW TRACK HAS NOT BEEN THERE.

[shaq725]

aww man well thats aint good for us southern middle tennesseans

[Snowman]

Remember that the storms they expect nothing from are usually the ones that suprise us. Saint Louis and Central Illinois look to pickup 1-3" of snow from this first Storm system.

[shaq725]

yea thats true i hope it does surprise us

[shaq725]

what are yall thinkin about the flurry chances

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

It probably won't come to fruition unless that pesky 540 drops through here, which it won't.  Maybe a wet flake or two mixed with rain, but you won't see that unless you live in Monterey.  Maybe a couple of inches in the Smokies will fall, though.

[Thundersnow]

Yeah, the chances don't look great.

It certainly won't be anywhere near cold enough for any accumulation.

[shaq725]

that sucks i dont really care about accumalation rite now anyway i just wanted to see some flakes fly but there will be other chances hopefully

[Thundersnow]

Yeah, it's only November.  :wink:

Anything we might get in November is bonus anyway.

[shaq725]

Exactly,I do hope we have an exciting season though, with  systems like every week.That would be awesome!!!!!

[Thundersnow]

The slim possbility is still alive... just barely:  maybe some light mixed precip on the plateau on Sunday.  From the Nashville AFD:

SEEMINGLY LAST SPOKE OF EASTERN ML/UL LINGERING TROUGH SHARPENS
 AND SWINGS DOWN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
 FEATURE EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE
 AND WEAK ML UVV. PCPN EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
 CHANCE RUNNING AREA-WIDE SUNDAY. ADDED STRONG CAA AND LINGERING
 SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG THE PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN
 SOME LIGHT PCPN. TEMPS STRUCTURE SHOWING SURFACE TO JUST ABOVE
 AOA FREEZING SO WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP.

The zone forecasts for the northern plateau are indicating a chance of "sprinkles or flurries" on Sunday night.

[Coach B]

For East TN Sunday and Monday:

LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINING WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION...TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND SOME OROGRAPHIC
FORCING SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT IN UPSLOPE AREAS.  DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE AN IDEAL SETUP AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING
AS WE GET CLOSER. MAY EVEN SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING COLDER HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

[Thundersnow]

I noticed this morning that the wording in the zone forecasts has been beefed up slightly.  A chance of sprinkles or flurries has been introduced in a couple of the Middle TN zones (including Nashville) for Sunday night... while a 20% chance of rain or snow showers is now indicated for the northern Cumberland Plateau (Crossville, Jamestown, etc.)

Still nothing to write home about.

[Thundersnow]

Special Weather Statement issued by the NWS in Morristown.  Some of the higher elevations in the state may be looking at their first snowfall accumulations of the season...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
 227 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2006
 
 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
 005-006-008-191000-
 CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
 SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
 NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
 SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
 SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
 BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
 SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
 SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
 WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...
 LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
 BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...
 MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...
 GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...
 ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...
 MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...
 PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE...
 COKER CREEK...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON...
 DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON
 127 PM CST SAT NOV 18 2006 /227 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2006/
 
 
 ...WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
 SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
 
 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
 MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAMATICALLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
 NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PULL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
 INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
 
 A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...THEN WILL INCREASE IN
 COVERAGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN
 BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN
 AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN SUNDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWERS
 MAY BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EVEN IN VALLEY
 LOCATIONS...WITH ALL SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER
 ELEVATIONS. THE RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER
 OFF ON MONDAY...BEFORE ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
 
 
 GROUND TEMPERATURES AND NEAR SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE
 TOO WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...A FEW VALLEY
 LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ON GRASSY
 AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN
 CUMBERLAND PLATEAU MAY SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE THE
 PRECIPITATION ENDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE
 ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
 SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...AGAIN WITH MINOR OR NO ACCUMULATIONS IN LOWER
 ELEVATIONS. IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND ESPECIALLY
 THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
 WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET...WITH 6 INCHES OR
 MORE POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET. THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS
 IN THESE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL AGAIN LIKELY SEE NO OR ONLY MINOR
 ACCUMULATIONS.
 
 STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL RADIO AND
 TELEVISION...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

[Thundersnow]

The latest on this is that the system is pretty moisture starved, and flurries have been removed from some of the zone forecasts in Middle TN.  The northern Cumberland Plateau has the best chance of seeing flurries.  The highest elevations of East TN still have the best shot for accumulating snow.