Tornado Outbreak: 3/2/12

[Matthew]

[Kevin]

Underwhelming discussion IMO...really broad-brushed...but nothing to indicate any risk upgrade FYI

[andyhb]

Underwhelming discussion IMO...really broad-brushed...but nothing to indicate any risk upgrade FYI

I'm a bit surprised by that.

[Charles L.]

Underwhelming discussion IMO...really broad-brushed...but nothing to indicate any risk upgrade FYI

VERY broad...only mention of TN/KY/AL/MS came at the very end and really didn't say much at all.

Very disappointed in that discussion...practically nothing was said for our areas.

[CT_Yankee]

Glad that they're holding off on mentioning upgrading to a High. They need to be used more sparingly they've been over the last couple of years IMO....wait until the mesoscale stuff comes into play.

[beneficii]

It's interesting how the MDT bends back west as you head north from Memphis.  Why is that?

[Johnny]

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...SWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES...
   
   A VERY STRONG JET CORE AT MID-HIGH LEVELS WILL INTENSIFY IN EXCESS
   OF 110KT AS IT OVERSPREADS SRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER TODAY.
   IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL OK EARLY THIS
   MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD AND DEEPEN OVER MO INTO CNTRL IL BY MID DAY.
    BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RECOVERING RAPIDLY ACROSS ERN OK ATTM
   WITH 60F DEW POINTS NOW SPREADING NORTH OF I-40.  THIS MOISTURE
   SURGE WILL ADVECT INTO MO BY SUNRISE AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS
   EXPECTED TO INDUCE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AHEAD OF SFC LOW
   ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT.  SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION NEWD
   WITH RECOVERING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW SEVERE WARM ADVECTION STORMS TO
   SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z.  WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL
   LIKELY BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT EARLY...A FEW TORNADOES ARE
   POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS MOISTENS.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY BOUNDARY
   LAYER DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF SFC COLD
   FRONT AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN SUCH THAT PRE-FRONTAL
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
   ACROSS IL.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN IL
   SUGGEST MUCAPE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WITHIN AN
   OTHERWISE VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THIS PRE-FRONTAL
   CONVECTION SHOULD THEN EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
   IND/KY BEFORE DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS TN INTO
   NRN AL/MS.
   
   AFTER THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS/OH
   VALLEY REGION...THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE WITH ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES
   AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  WITH QUITE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
   PLACE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
   POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM
   ACROSS THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.  WITH TIME A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE
   COULD EMERGE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.

[Charles L.]

I am hearing other people on other forums really speculating about if a HIGH risk zone will be issued or not...please do not have that mentality.

This is a large MDT risk zone that includes a large area (all of OHX's CWA)...the severity of this system should already be grasped, it shouldn't fringe on if a HIGH risk zone gets issued or not and that shouldn't be our main questioning.

So far the discussions here have been outstanding...keep it up!

[MrOysterhead]

Well well, here we go. Not surprised by this, but I thought this kind of thing would start off around 6am est. Anything worth staying up for? I've got a 3 hr lab tomorrow and I need to get some sleep...

[ams30721us]

hmmm they actually expanded the Moderate risk a good bit especially Southeast. Now including most of SE Tennessee and even NW GA.

[StormAlertWX]

Tracking with IRADAR as well...
Moving ENE towards Chatt Metro @ 45 MPH

[MrOysterhead]

Whoa. Looking off to my southwest right now I can see this cell has some impressive lightning with it


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I am here: http://tapatalk.com/map.php?rno3ou

[Shanti]

So... what is the timing looking like for the Nashville area? I'm trying to find it on NOAA and not having any luck....Also are we alright for tonight?

[beneficii]

So... what is the timing looking like for the Nashville area? I'm trying to find it on NOAA and not having any luck....Also are we alright for tonight?

Here you go:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=ohx&gc=7

[ams30721us]

Whoa. Looking off to my southwest right now I can see this cell has some impressive lightning with it


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I am here: http://tapatalk.com/map.php?rno3ou

Yep, Getting a nice T-shower here in Dalton now with some good lightning and thunder.