Feb 10-11 Cold Front Snow?

[jmundie]

Cobb algorithm for BNA from the 12z NAM:
Not....much.....

 Yep - a 9 to 1 ratio certainly makes sense at those temps. 

I'm interested in the snow reports from our west. BNA is colder than those locations.

[aubieman]

Cobb algorithm for BNA from the 12z NAM:
Not....much.....

Only good thing I can say about this is what Cobb said about his algorithm:
"Dividing up the data by Cobb Method forecasted snowfall totals shows light snowfalls tend to be underforecasted, while heavy snowfalls tend to be overforecasted."
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/web/presentations/SimpleSnowfallAlgorithm.ppt

[jmundie]

Interesting that KMEM still calling for a high of 50

Temp is 39, dewpoint 29, seems they will go down a bit from here as the heavy precip arrives, muting the WAA for at least.

[Charles L.]

My guess is someone across northern MS is getting either a good snow shower or sleet shower by looking at radar and the DBZ returns...

LMK has lowered forecasted highs. They did have BG getting to the low 40's for a high, but now are saying 38F...temps. all across SCK and western KY are holding steady in the upper 30's.

[Charles L.]

OHX has updated zone forecasts...now calling for an 80% chance of rain changing to snow tonight for Lafayette, have added in some accumulation wording too.

[Eric]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1049 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

...SNOW AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL RECEIVE AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL...WITH
HIGHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS JAMESTOWN AND MONTEREY RECEIVING UP TO 2
INCHES. SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL DEVELOP. ALSO...THE COLD
AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS.

TNZ010-011-031>034-065-066-110100-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0002.120211T0000Z-120211T1800Z/
CLAY-PICKETT-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...GAINESBORO...
COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE
1049 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON CST SATURDAY.

* EVENT...AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU...WITH 2 INCHES
  AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

[jmundie]

The RUC really looks like this band of precip coming through is going to be all snow. Maybe 35-36 at the surface with a little evaporational cooling.

[snowdog]

Looks like most weather stations around the area at at 38 to 39 degrees with 66% humidity.  Which would wet-bulb us down to 34 or 35 degrees.  Like I said earlier, we are only above freezing from about 1500 feet down to sea level.  Most of Nashville sits around 400 to 600 feet in elevation.  So your snow/sleet whatever has to fall through about 1000' of slightly above freezing air.  Mid to Upper levels are well below freezing. 

[southeastTNwx]

Nice graphic taken from MRX's facebook page.

[KG4GKE]

My guess is someone across northern MS is getting either a good snow shower or sleet shower by looking at radar and the DBZ returns...

Several reports received this morning via Fb/Tw/e-mail across NW MS, SW TN & E AR. Mist/drizzle/small snowflakes in West Memphis. Small sleet/graupel in various locations around NW MS (particularly in east DeSoto & Marshall Counties), and a variation of snow reports across W TN (SE Memphis, Collierville, Millington, Moscow, Bolivar, etc.). So far, nothing in the way of major accumulations, according to reports and attached pix sent in.

[Flash]

HPC 24 hour snowfall probability >1" map seems reasonable. Poor Louisville, though. They must be upset. Seems like Crockett could see snow measured in inches maybe?

[Charles L.]

Loving the current trends...sad that tonight's event will be the most snow I have seen all winter. lol

Dad in Franklin, KY reporting a light snow...

[Weazel]

Snow falling here in Lyles, TN (Hickman County). Temperature says 37 tho!

[snowdog]

Snowing in downtown Nashville. 

[WXHD]

Light snow in east Nashville too.