Feb 10-11 Cold Front Snow?

[jmundie]

Like the Valley may get like totally soaked in rain or it may be like totally snowing and awesome.  These models are like such a drag.  Ohhhh my bad, wrong Valley. 

You'll get this if you were born before 1982.

I was born in 84 and I get it. I guess its close enough.

BTW - gonna see if this works posting the RPM loop. Looks like a decent bit of snow for mid tennessee if this verifies. Nice evaporational cooling with the first band of moisture.



link if that doesn't loop

http://www.chicagoweathercenter.com/maps/rpm/

[mrwilkes]

If this thing really does pan out, I'm gonna be really impressed, JMundie.  You will have Tebowed this thing into submission.

[Eric]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
756 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

.UPDATE...LIGHT PRECIPITATION STARTING TO NOSE INTO NW MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE THIS HOUR. AM SPREADING THE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FARTHER EASTWARD FOR THE LATE MORNING PERIOD THAT WILL
INCLUDE NASHVILLE. STILL NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

[jmundie]

BTW - Just to forewarn people - its possible nothing reaches the ground for a bit, even though we have returns over us. That's good, actually, because the evaporational cooling will keep temps down. It may even appear to be done, but the shortwave diving down with the cold front is pretty intense, and will create a band of snow. How heavy it is is anyone's guess, but we'll have low pressure throwing moisture back at the cold front coming in, so its possible to have a very heavy band there that could surprise us. Obviously - no way to forecast that besides watching the RUC/HRRR and other short term models. This should happen around or after midnight. So be patient.

 

[jmundie]

The accumulation maps on twister data aren't showing anything, but the column is at freezing down below 925 for most of middle tennesse, and surface temps in the mid to upper 30s. I have to imagine that's snow, and especially given the 20db returns, it shohuld pull cold down to the surface.

[snowdog]

The accumulation maps on twister data aren't showing anything, but the column is at freezing down below 925 for most of middle tennesse, and surface temps in the mid to upper 30s. I have to imagine that's snow, and especially given the 20db returns, it shohuld pull cold down to the surface.

Sounds like it is pretty close to the RUC.  I think we see some snow showers tonight but I don't think we see much if any accums. 

[bugalou]

I walked outside and it is snowing at my house in Southaven. 

Edit:
hmmm... no mention of this on MEG's page even with the short term forecast.

[jmundie]

I walked outside and it is snowing at my house in Southaven. 

Edit:
hmmm... no mention of this on MEG's page even with the short term forecast.

I like that ob. Have also heard reports of snow in dyersburg. I assume its light?

[Crockett]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1034 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. SOME SNOW LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT AREAS IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY GET MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY...AS THE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.

THE WINTRY WEATHER COULD AFFECT TRAVEL PLANS...SO STAY TUNED.

TNZ012>014-035-102345-/O.EXA.KMRX.WW.Y.0004.120211T0000Z-120212T0000Z/
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...WARTBURG
1034 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY.

* EVENT...LOW PRESSURE AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A GENERAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MAINLY THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE UPSLOPE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

[bugalou]

I like that ob. Have also heard reports of snow in dyersburg. I assume its light?

Yeah its light but steady.  Obviously it's not sticking and it won't be around long, but it was unexpected none the less.

[jmundie]

From MEG Short Term Forecast

.NOW...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR OFF AND ON OVER MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S ONLY PERIODS OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED

[bugalou]

I walked outside and it is snowing at my house in Southaven. 

Edit:
hmmm... no mention of this on MEG's page even with the short term forecast.

MEG just updated and expanded their short term forecast.  I submitted a storm report of light snow just before they did this so I am taking all the credit for this. 

[Drifter42]

I walked outside and it is snowing at my house in Southaven. 

Edit:
hmmm... no mention of this on MEG's page even with the short term forecast.

Snowing lightly here in Paris as well. Just small flakes.

[Eric]

Cobb algorithm for BNA from the 12z NAM:

120211/0900Z  21  32013KT  31.5F           
120211/1000Z  22  31013KT  30.0F  SNOW   11:1   0.004   
120211/1100Z  23  32014KT  28.2F  SNOW    9:1    0.004 
120211/1200Z  24  33013KT  27.3F         

Not....much.....

[Charles L.]

Cobb algorithm for BNA from the 12z NAM:
Not....much.....

lol...I'm surprised it even can register that small amount.

Here is the snowfall map from Earl Barker's site (light pink is up to 1", magenta/dark pink is up to 2")

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=OHX

I really like this one, seems very plausible with locations and amounts...though I highly doubt we see any 2" reports.