Feb 10-11 Cold Front Snow?

[Coach B]

LMK(Louisville) pulls the trigger on a WWA:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ FRIDAY
TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ SATURDAY.

* TIMING: A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE ADVISORY AREA
  DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL
  PUSH INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN THE RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING
  OVER TO SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
  INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY
  EVENING...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE REGION.
  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
  SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
  WESTERN KENTUCKY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 1 TO
  2 INCHES.

[aubieman]

12z NAM is favorable for Plateau and E TN around hr 45.

courtesy Weather Underground

[jmundie]

HRRR has a heck of a lot of moisture coming out of the gulf tomorrow morning. Its at the end of the run, but, wow.



and showing snow in northern arkansas, but we all know how accurate the HRRR accumulation graphics are (not very)



Would be awesome to wake up to a beast of a miller a. I honestly think we could start as some sleet tomorrow am if the precip gets there soon enough due to evaporational cooling.

[jmundie]

Wow - nam gets insane cold Sunday morning. Mid teens. -10 850s really plunge into the southeast. if anything falls Saturday - it ain't going anywhere.

Also - all ready 32 at my house in east Nashville at the core of the urban heat island. Our forecasted low temp of 30 may bust unless some clouds come in or south winds show up.

[snowdog]

Looking at Twisterdata soundings on the GFS and they show the same thing as the NAM.  Really weird.  Again thickness and 850's look good on the PSU site but on the soundings the surface is really warm.  About 2500' and down to the surface is above freezing. 

[Nashville_wx]

Wow - nam gets insane cold Sunday morning. Mid teens. -10 850s really plunge into the southeast. if anything falls Saturday - it ain't going anywhere.

Also - all ready 32 at my house in east Nashville at the core of the urban heat island. Our forecasted low temp of 30 may bust unless some clouds come in or south winds show up.

Already down to 30.1F here in Bellevue. We will def drop down into the upper 20's...

[Nashville_wx]

Yeah looking at the 00Z GFS data here in BNA, it looks like the significant QPF will fall as sleet. Bufkit data shows from 9am to 6pm we see light QPF in the area. Then we see a turn to IP from 6pm to 12am. This looks to be the majority of the QPF ( around .05" ) So basicly we are seeing possible light snow showers in the morning with freezing levels raising to 1500-1800ft then rapidly falling of around 2-3pm. Given low temperatures are already running a bit below guidance at this time, its possible that temps could promote a bit more of SN/IP situation than a RN situation, but that also depends on timing. Borderline as always but def need to watch obs as this starting in less that 12hours possibly. Max surface temps look meh as there is a small warn nose in there for a very short duration.

[cd2play]

Guessing BNA proper gets a minimal dusting (one of those crappy 0.1 inch deals)  I guess beggars can't be choosers (

[aubieman]

With all the appropriate caveats about Twisterdata and snow, here's Sat morning snow depth for 06z GFS:

Maybe up to an inch, but probably less than 1/2 for most.

[jmundie]

My call for this system, on a simplified basis, seperating middle tenn into four quadrants, with i65 and i40 as the dividing lines.

NW quad - .5 to 1 inch
NE quad .5 to locally 2 (in the far NE plateau)
SW quad - dusting
SE quad dusting to .5

[skillsweather]

Ill take a Half inch especially this winter I was happy with the snow we got earlyer this season and if we get half inch that will be more then that time or close to it i cant really remember stupid snow drought making me forget things.

[Curt]

Ill take a Half inch especially this winter I was happy with the snow we got earlyer this season and if we get half inch that will be more then that time or close to it i cant really remember stupid snow drought making me forget things.

Can I please rephrase?

Given this winter's slow start, I will take a half inch tonight. Tonight's snow might equal what fell earlier this year, and I'm ok with that for now. The snow drought is apparently causing a memory lapse.

[Milodog2]

Mundie, any predictions for the valley?


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[jmundie]

Mundie, any predictions for the valley?


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I don't really specialize in elevation based forecasting in East Tennessee - I'd say ya'll will have trouble cooling at the surface given the cold air avection being blocked by the plateau, so probably less for you guys unless we get an overall increase in qpf.

Ya'll are in a tough spot to do well unless you have a gulf low, due to downsloping as well as issues with cold air getting to the surface.

I think the higher elevations will do well, especially with upslope. If the low bombs up the coast, there should be considerable moisture pull from the lakes, especially the northern plateau and ne tennessee.

[snowdog]

Like the Valley may get like totally soaked in rain or it may be like totally snowing and awesome.  These models are like such a drag.  Ohhhh my bad, wrong Valley. 

You'll get this if you were born before 1982.