Feb 13-14 - valentines southern slider

[bugalou]

MEG has put some accumulations in their grids stating 1 to 3 here and 1 to 2 in the metro.  As Kevin said the models are more or less hopeless at this point if we're are trying to dig into the fine details on ptype and accumulations (if any).  This could very well end up like 2010 when I woke up to 5 or 6 inches of snow, or it could be some ZR changing over to rain.  If there is any positive news, temps have trended below guidance for the past couple days and this front seems to mean business.

[Curt]

Tonights GFS starts starts drying things up from west to east as it hits lower DPs. Still looks like snow to sleet to rain in Memphis area with bulk of temps around 32. Little Rock looks to be in quite the best spot for significant snowfall. Again this looks like it will be depedent on cold air leftover and rate of precip. Heaviest QPF comes across central AR and starts to wane somewhat in a cone as it heads to the west across the MS River.

[bugalou]

Tonights GFS starts starts drying things up from west to east as it hits lower DPs. Still looks like snow to sleet to rain in Memphis area with bulk of temps around 32. Little Rock looks to be in quite the best spot for significant snowfall. Again this looks like it will be depedent on cold air leftover and rate of precip. Heaviest QPF comes across central AR and starts to wane somewhat in a cone as it heads to the east across the MS River.

Isn't it strange how this is so similar to the 2010 event?  The models are even behaving in the very same way.  Can we jog the freezing line down about 20 miles this go round though?    I remember cursing you and Kev when you guys were still getting snow and I was nothing but cold rain for the rest of the day.

[Kevin]

00z GFS per Bufkit is a decent 1-2" snow to sleet event (locally higher possible) for the metro area...tailing off as rain. NAM is warmer and is mostly rain throughout the event with just an hour or two of mix possible. Of course...who knows if either will end up being verified or not.

Little Rock *may* have a legitimate 3-5" snow/sleet threat. Central AR probably the place you'll want to be.

[Curt]

Isn't it strange how this is so similar to the 2010 event?  The models are even behaving in the very same way.  Can we jog the freezing line down about 20 miles this go round though?    I remember cursing you and Kev when you guys were still getting snow and I was nothing but cold rain for the rest of the day.

You got your 6-8 mister. I got stuck with 4 and and inch of rain on top. Youre right though. Eerily similar. Central Ar should be interesting for sure.

[bigalpha]

Is the storm track still on a similar projection as modeled earlier?

[Curt]

00z GFS per Bufkit is a decent 1-2" snow to sleet event (locally higher possible) for the metro area...tailing off as rain. NAM is warmer and is mostly rain throughout the event with just an hour or two of mix possible. Of course...who knows if either will end up being verified or not.

Little Rock *may* have a legitimate 3-5" snow/sleet threat. Central AR probably the place you'll want to be.

Yeah cobb puts down about an inch at 31 degrees (.08-.10 in qpf), but then its hard for me to believe the next .24 in of qpf goes to all rain at temps bw 31 and 32.4. I would suspect that more of this is snow, perhaps much more dependent on precip rates. Cobb has LR at 3 inches changing to freezing rain. I've noticed that cobb alg really struggle at marginal temps, and usually err on the conservative side, as was the case in early Dec (this far out anyways) as it showed a RASN mix up until the event started.

I think the farther west one is on this one, the better off you are to saturate while the dome of cold air is not quite retreated yet. At least theres something to dissect, even if its nothing epic. Its interesting that the GFS really dries things up the further it runs into lower DP's.

[bugalou]

You got your 6-8 mister. I got stuck with 4 and and inch of rain on top. Youre right though. Eerily similar. Central Ar should be interesting for sure.

I slept through my 6-8.  It was about 3 after being rained on for a couple hours.
Here is to hoping for something for someone with this system.  Though if it doesn't, we may finally get around to a Memphis meet in the spring to drown our collective sorrows over this winter.

[Flash]

Are areas east of TN River still in the hunt for accumulating snow or will this be like November 2011 in terms of best location for wintry precip (except this time...it's not a ULL storm)...?

[ams30721us]

00z CMC much colder and wetter farther east. Esp. across Nrn Alabama and Nrn GA...Keeps all frozen event in N. GA. Tries to pop a surface low to the S and E of the state in the Gulf.

[jmundie]

Don't like pinning my hopes on the canadian, but it appears to be where we're at at this point.

Euro accums are lighter again - arkansas still gets creamed, but the precip shield dies out - yielding 1-2 inches for Nashville.

At this point - the best place to be looks like along and south of I40 from Little Rock to Memphis.

Gotta hope that the modeling is wrong at this point if you're east of Memphis. We need this sucker to hold together, and have more evaporational cooling than is currently being modeled.

Hopefully 12z will shine some light now that the cold air is in and the low pressure moving up the coast.

[jmundie]

5 of the 11 ensemble members for 6z gfs show 4-6 inches along I40 in arkansas towards memphis.

6 ensemble members show at least an inch for bna

3 members show 2+ inches for BNA

Really would like to see a good trend at 12z today. We in Nashville really need the deep moisture to make it to us. As it stands now, the low is getting sheered, which is killing the qpf... less qpf means less evaporational cooling, which means less snow. That's why the models are blowing up the little rock area. They are getting at least .5 qpf which quickly cools the column and dumps heavy snow on them for a couple hours before it warms up to rain.

Most storms have trended wetter for us this year. That's what we need to watch for.

[Coach B]

Looks like most models trending lighter for the mid and eastern part of the state. However, many of you follow Foothills over at American and he said the following this morn:

But this event still looks weak, and almost non-existent east of the Apps. My favorite spot for snow in terms of hours falling/max intensity is central Tenn to east TN, and down to n. Central GA. overnight Monday night , possibly the sw mountains of NC. After that all models continue showing the system fall apart almost instantly entering the Carolinas, hard to argue with that for now.

Not sure whats making him see that, but I've got lots of respect for the guy.

[jmundie]

Looks like most models trending lighter for the mid and eastern part of the state. However, many of you follow Foothills over at American and he said the following this morn:Not sure whats making him see that, but I've got lots of respect for the guy.

Saw that this morning. If precip shield holds together, we will likely stay below freezing for the duration because we'll have drier/colder air to work with. Latest models have lowered qpf- which is what's killing us and warming us up faster.

[jmundie]

Looking at the HRRR at the end of the latest run, its really starting to pump moisture into south texas, appears further east than how the NAM is. I believe that's the remnants of the ull down in the baja. If that ejects more quickly ahead of the shortwave coming in from the pacific, we would have a different situation on our hands monday. For now - that's what I'm watching and looking for in the 12z runs.

Trying to be hopeful as we're getting closer to the event and the trend isn't in our favor.

For comparison's sake

Hrrr at 7 PM tonight



NAM at 6 PM tonight