Feb 13-14 - valentines southern slider

[jmundie]

The majority of the 18z ensembles are showing snow for our area (arkansas gets hammered btw). One of the ensemble member keeps 850s below freezing for the entire event.

Onto 0z.

[jmundie]

Knoxville TV mets not even mentioning a chance for snownext week... whats up with that?

Cause they have, at most 8 minutes to do their weather segment. There is the possibility of snow tomorrow night. And a snow storm monday night, regardless of how heavy, doesn't need an imminent mention.

Mets work for producers who discuss what they should talk about. If someone has built up trust with a community and their boss, they might let them mention something 4-5 days out... but more than likely, if things are still showing up by 12z tomorrow, you'll see chance of rain/snow for monday on the 7 day tomorrow night. And then they'll start discussing it from there.

[snohoho]

ice storm setting up here?  my sled is ready...so to speak

[WXHD]

ice storm setting up here?  my sled is ready...so to speak

I've too much work for an ice storm, and a family to keep safe. That said, I'd love the sledding!  

[jmundie]

Gfs is so close. Seems a lock at this point that north Arkansas get hammered though.

[Nashville_wx]

Wow, this is the first time I have looked at any model data today. I am def game to see how this turns out. Just 24 hours ago I was confident this event would not pan out to much. The next 2 events seem to have now become a concern and is the first "REAL'" threat we have seen here in Middle Tennesee . Jmundie, great job following this!

[Curt]

GFS really looks sleety for at least parts of the Memphis metro. Thicknesses are shifting northward, but surface temps really stay near 32 for the onset and a good bit of precip. Precip usually seems to move in much quicker in my experience as it overrides cold air masses. To me, it looks very similar to Feb 8th 2010 as far as set up, which could mean someone gets some heavy wet snow or sleet, possibly transitioning to rain along the route. NE Arkansas looks to be a big winner in regards to timing and esp before WAA kicks in.

[Curt]

Goodness, looking at text data its oh so close to a heavy wet snow esp north of the TN-MS state line. Much of the precip, 0.44in falls (at nqa, Millington- my default) at a surface temp between 32-33 F, with 850's transitioning from 0C- just above freezing, thickness around 540. Looks like someone could get a heavy wet snow followed by some kind of transition. Then the warm-up finishes off everything after.

[snowdog]

CMC looks like rain for most. 

[Curt]

CMC looks like rain for most.

Thicknesses are close by but theres no way to tell surface temps.

[Curt]

This really may be a timing event, esp overnight and morning hours. Nearly ALL sites start as snow and transition to sleet or FZRA before ending and warming up. Most precip falls as the wintry variety before the warm up.

Cobb algorithms per 0z GFS:
Little Rock- 2 inches snow, .14 sleet, .32 fzra
Jonesboro- 4 inches snow, .09 sleet
Memphis -1/2 snow, .17 sleet, to rain
Jackson- 1 inch snow, .12 fzra
Nashville- rain snow mix with no accums
Knoxville- moisture really starts drying up as it hits the drier air, mostly rain snow mix no accums total qpf .04in
Chatt- rain sleet mix, no accum total qpf .38

Ive noticed that the cobb alg tends to be conservative with winter precip at marginal temps, so take these with a grain of salt. I would bet that this ends up as all snow or rain rather than sleet or fzra. Were a long way off. just based on this run moisture is best in the western parts of the area, esp Arkansas and its timed just right for more winter precip in these areas too...BASED OFF THIS RUN WHICH WILL CHANGE. Little Rock to Mountain Home and to the MS River appear to catch the most accum snow on this run.

[Curt]

Its in its weak zone (84 hrs), but def colder at surface and aloft. Precip is just beginning to make an apperarance to the west at that point.

[ams30721us]

00z Euro images:

[ams30721us]

CMC looks like rain for most.

hmmm def. looks like it trended colder to me. In fact it actually is now even showing a mostly wintry event down in Northern GA which was not on the 12z.

00z Canadian:

[jmundie]

OHX changed the grids. Monday night is now Snow Likely, Chance of snow 60%

They don't have us going below freezing that night, which is probably a safe forecast for now. But at least there's a mention. Probably because the GFS and ensembles are cominig on board.

Majority of ensembles give us a couple inches in Nashville... one member, that stays all snow yields 8 inches from Nashville to Knoxville.

Euro from last night does drop below freezing at BNA but maybe has a bit of sleet mixing in before the low passes to our east, at which point a reinforcing shot of cold air drops in.