Severe Weather Winter 2012

[beneficii]

Check the euro accum maps at hour 120 last night (at wunderground)

It's been showing this storm for 3 days.

Thanks.  That is interesting.

Now, I'm curious.  Does that map show 3-hour snowfall accumulations in inches?

[jmundie]

Thanks.  That is interesting.

Now, I'm curious.  Does that map show 3-hour snowfall accumulations in inches?

yes ma'am

I'm waiting for the accum maps for the 12z run, which look like they may be even better, before starting a thread for this system.

[jmundie]

yes ma'am

I'm waiting for the accum maps for the 12z run, which look like they may be even better, before starting a thread for this system.

Lol - here's the "Severe weather" system. A slight timing difference away from a snow bomb from dallas to louisville.

[Kevin]

Anybody still thinking about severe weather next week? 

...And this is why the "outbreak" talk we saw elsewhere (never got that far here fortunately) was just simply unreasonable at that point...

Thanks for not jumping guns here...

[jmundie]

Anybody still thinking about severe weather next week? 

...And this is why the "outbreak" talk we saw elsewhere (never got that far here fortunately) was just simply unreasonable at that point...

Thanks for not jumping guns here...

Lol - There's clearly gonna be a big system coming out of texas or the gulf - but severe won't be the concern... snow might be if blocking holds, or returns after breaking down.

Have you seen some of the snowpocalypse systems that the 12z ensembles are coming up with?

My favorite ensemble member is below. But you'll have to remove the space after http and copy and paste the link.

http ://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zensp004snow204.gif

[Eric]

Lol - There's clearly gonna be a big system coming out of texas or the gulf - but severe won't be the concern... snow might be if blocking holds, or returns after breaking down.

Have you seen some of the snowpocalypse systems that the 12z ensembles are coming up with?

My favorite ensemble member is below. But you'll have to remove the space after http and copy and paste the link.

http ://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zensp004snow204.gif

[bugalou]

It isn't the same without the creepy pear:

[Twisted]

I would really like to know either way. Weds and Thurs. could literally be a life altering day for me. Doctors found a Tumor in November and on both days I will be in Memphis for a MIBG scan to find out if my tumor is a pheocromocytoma. So far all labs are pointing to that being the diagnosis. Last thing I want is to be driving Down to Memphis in "Severe and/or blizzard"conditions. (Is it just me or is it strange to even say that out loud)?

[jmundie]

I would really like to know either way. Weds and Thurs. could literally be a life altering day for me. Doctors found a Tumor in November and on both days I will be in Memphis for a MIBG scan to find out if my tumor is a pheocromocytoma. So far all labs are pointing to that being the diagnosis. Last thing I want is to be driving Down to Memphis in "Severe and/or blizzard"conditions. (Is it just me or is it strange to even say that out loud)?

I can say with about as much certainty as one can say in the wather 6 days out, there will not be severe on wed or thursday. Its gonna take some time to recharge the atmosphere after this cold front comes through.

[KG4GKE]

I can say with about as much certainty as one can say in the wather 6 days out, there will not be severe on wed or thursday. Its gonna take some time to recharge the atmosphere after this cold front comes through.

SPC Day 2 otlk has a Slight Risk category from (roughly) I-40 southwards to the GOM; best chance of showers and t-storms then. Clearing into Thursday with mostly sunny expected.

[jmundie]

SPC Day 2 otlk has a Slight Risk category from (roughly) I-40 southwards to the GOM; best chance of showers and t-storms then. Clearing into Thursday with mostly sunny expected.

I40 in Memphis just barely makes it into the slight risk zone. But above, I was talking for Tennessee. 90 percent of Tennessee is not included in the slight risk.

still think that's a little aggressive. Shreveport to Jackson to Birmingham... maybe.

[Kevin]

Okay...MEG gets a laugh from me for this one...

THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO 
EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 
TRAILING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE LAUGHABLE...BUT 
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SO 
WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

Take that SPC!

[Eric]

Updated Day 2:

[jmundie]

Updated Day 2:

I40 in Memphis just barely makes it into the slight risk zone. But above, I was talking for Tennessee. 90 percent of Tennessee is not included in the slight risk.

still think that's a little aggressive. Shreveport to Jackson to Birmingham... maybe.

Well - two out of three ain't bad. Looks like an I20 system though.

[cd2play]

Even though normally you need dew points up into at least the mid 50s for severe storms, there is one thing I've learned; you can have rather cool temps and still get vivid thunder and lightning.  In fact, I think I remember a time when we had an electrical T'storm with temps in the upper 30s.  I imagine there have even been ice storms with a decent amount of T and L.