Severe Weather Winter 2012

[toastido]

This is from today on a TOR in Louisiana. Quite possibly the oddest looking polygon warning I have ever seen.

[jmundie]

This is from today on a TOR in Louisiana. Quite possibly the oddest looking polygon warning I have ever seen.

Maybe there's no population in the area south of the warning. It looks like they reached out a finger where there is civilization.

[Kevin]

Maybe there's no population in the area south of the warning. It looks like they reached out a finger where there is civilization.

I wondered as well. Its Lake Pontchartrain there which isn't a TOR-able area apparently (though there should be a SMW...there isn't as of yet).

[Charles L.]

I wondered as well. Its Lake Pontchartrain there which isn't a TOR-able area apparently (though there should be a SMW...there isn't as of yet).

They just issued the Special Marine Warning not too long ago. (Sent out at 2:43)...though the warning doesn't mention tornado possiblility, only mentions strong winds.

[andyhb]

GFS for numerous runs in a row has shown a major system in the mid-range, with what looks like a significant threat of severe weather. The Euro has also followed suit the majority of the time.

Latest run of the GFS:

[Kevin]

Strong storms...maybe for sure...but otherwise is going WAY too far out on a limb at that range...especially since GFS doesn't really look that unstable...just the strong dynamics. System to watch but no need to scream things like "significant" severe weather yet...

[andyhb]

Strong storms...maybe for sure...but otherwise is going WAY too far out on a limb at that range...especially since GFS doesn't really look that unstable...just the strong dynamics. System to watch but no need to scream things like "significant" severe weather yet...

I didn't mean "significant" as a measure of the magnitude of the severe weather, just more as the probability of any svr wx with such a system as this.

[beneficii]

It is an interesting setup that is currently forecast for next Wednesday; there's nothing substantive right now, but if we can get more instability then we'll have another one of those days.

[Milodog2]

What part of instability is lacking as of now?


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[Eric]

What part of instability is lacking as of now?


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All of it.  Last I checked, CAPE values didn't exceed 500 j/kg and dew points weren't that impressive, either.  Still time for a change, though, FWIW.

[jmundie]

All of it.  Last I checked, CAPE values didn't exceed 500 j/kg and dew points weren't that impressive, either.  Still time for a change, though, FWIW.

Honestly - with the mjo being in phase 8 and into phase 1, severe weather makes way less sense than a snow storm. We're entering the phases that correspond with cold anamolies in the eastern us. With a sub 995 low pressure, possible tight closed low, seems a blizzard somewhere between dallas and memphis up into the ohio valley makes the most sense. If there is severe weather, I'd think it be limited to areas along and south of I20. How many times have we had a big severe outbreak 2 days after a (potential) snowstorm?

[beneficii]

Honestly - with the mjo being in phase 8 and into phase 1, severe weather makes way less sense than a snow storm. We're entering the phases that correspond with cold anamolies in the eastern us. With a sub 995 low pressure, possible tight closed low, seems a blizzard somewhere between dallas and memphis up into the ohio valley makes the most sense. If there is severe weather, I'd think it be limited to areas along and south of I20. How many times have we had a big severe outbreak 2 days after a (potential) snowstorm?

Where are you getting this?  MEG has us in the forecast as getting nothing but rain and warming up substantially starting Monday.

[Eric]

Where are you getting this?  MEG has us in the forecast as getting nothing but rain and warming up substantially starting Monday.

Not to speak for J, but the HPC has alluded to the MJO numbers, and everything else I'm sure is his own opinion concerning model data.

[jmundie]

Where are you getting this?  MEG has us in the forecast as getting nothing but rain and warming up substantially starting Monday.

Did the gfs look like a severe threat in this period today? Or a snowstorm minus the cold?

If the mjo is in phase 8 the only severe weather will be south of i20

[jmundie]

Where are you getting this?  MEG has us in the forecast as getting nothing but rain and warming up substantially starting Monday.

Check the euro accum maps at hour 120 last night (at wunderground)

It's been showing this storm for 3 days.